Business Monitor International


Zambia Power Report

Published 15 July 2014

  • 67 pages
 
$1,295.00
Zambia Power Report

BMI View: The outlook for Zambia ' s power sector is generally positive. After decades of underinvestment by the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO ) the government has responded to the demands of the mining and manufacturing sectors to galvanise the development of new generating capacity. A number of coal-fired and hydropower stations are under development and close to completion, sufficient to cover Zambia ' s needs and allow for significant volumes of exports. With the help of international donors, the government is also expanding the transmission network, opening up the domestic electricity market. However, barriers to investment remain. The power sector is dominated by a si ngle state-owned monopoly (ZESCO ), the country lacks a proper regulatory framework and private participation in the energy sector is limited. In addition, Zambia suffers from political instability and a hostile commercial environment.

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation will increase by 4.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 to 5.2TWh, and by 58.9% over the 10-year timeframe, reaching 20.3TWh in 2023.

  • Power consumption will increase by 6.5% y-o-y in 2014 to 6.7TWh, rising to 10.0TWh by 2023. This implies considerable potential for the export of electricity.

  • Transmission and distribution losses in 2014 will be high at 15.9% of output and will gradually decline only slightly in percentage terms over the 10-year forecast period.

Recent Developments

  • In April, the Australian firm African Energy Resources signed a memorandum of understanding with the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) to export 300MW of base load electricity power from the Sese Coal and Power project in Botswana.

  • In April, the first public-private partnership energy project in Zambia was initiated when the African Development Bank, the Dutch Development Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and France's Propaco granted TATA Africa and ZESCO a loan of USD142m to develop the 120MW...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Recent Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Zambia Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot - Power Sector
11
Zambia Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
15
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
21
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
34
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
34
Zambia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
38
Key Policies And Market Structure
38
Southern Africa Power Projects Database
44
Table: Southern Africa Power Projects Database
44
Competitive Landscape
49
Regional Overview
54
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview
54
Glossary
63
Table: Glossary Of Terms
63
Methodology
64
Methodology And Sources
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sources
67
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
70

The Zambia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Zambia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Zambia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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