Business Monitor International


Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 May 2014

  • 65 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The Zambian government has shown that it is committed to increasing the decentralisation of drugs in Zambia, with the recent creation of two regional hubs and two more planned for 2014, which will be viewed favourably by investors. However, with the government allocating only 9.9% of the total budget to healthcare, improvements in healthcare provision will continue to be driven largely by funding from international aid agencies.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZMK1,121bn (USD208mn) in 2013 to ZMK1,240bn (USD214mn) in 2014; +10.6% in local currency terms and +2.7% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: ZMK7,589bn (USD1.41bn) in 2013 to ZMK8,692bn (USD1.50bn) in 2014; +14.5% in local currency terms and +6.4% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Zambia ranks 22nd in our Q314 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) for the MEA region, performing more strongly in terms of Rewards than Risks.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In its 2014 budget, the government stated that it will continue to develop regional hubs to decentralise the storage and distribution of medical drugs and supplies to ensure they reach more people. Two hubs in Chipata and Choma have been established, with two more in Mongu and Kasama planned for 2014. The government also stated that will seek to invest in district hospitals that are currently not served with first level referral services.

  • Novartis announced in April 2014 that it will deliver two million of its anti-malarial treatment Coartem (artemether and lumefantrine) to Zambia. Zambia is the first country to receive country Novartis' 'Power of One' global fundraising campaign which was launched in September 2013 jointly with non-profit organisation Malaria No More.

BMI Economic View: The implications of kwacha weakness are potentially significant and far-reaching. Much will depend on the extent and the permanence of the depreciation, and we have therefore refrained from making adjustments to our economic...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: Zambia - Economic Activity
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Middle East & Africa
29
Zambia Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Market Overview
39
Industry Trends And Developments
42
Epidemiology
42
Healthcare Sector
44
Regulatory Development
49
Demographic Forecast
54
Demographic Outlook
54
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
55
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
56
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
57
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
57
Glossary
58
Methodology
60
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
60
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
60
Notes On Methodology
61
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
62
Ratings Overview
63
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
63
Indicator Weightings
64

The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc