Business Monitor International


Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 28 November 2014

  • 65 pages
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$1,295.00
Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   The share of the government's 2015 budget allocated to health care is lower than in 2014, and this, combined with the political uncertainty following President Sata's death, raises concern as to whether the country will succeed in its missions to improve healthcare provision and reduce mortality from communicable diseases. Nevertheless, the government has pledged to provide 2,000 more health workers over the coming year, and this can only improve patients' access to healthcare.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZMK1,393bn (USD227mn) in 2014 to ZMK1,595bn (USD251mn) in 2015; +14.5% in local currency terms and +10.9% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: ZMK8,746bn (USD1.42bn) in 2014 to ZMK9,983bn (USD1.57bn) in 2015; +14.1% in local currency terms and +10.5% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Zambia ranks 26th in our Q115 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for the MEA region.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In Zambia's 2015 budget, the healthcare sector will see around a 6% increase in spending; although as a share of the overall budget this has been reduced from 9.9% in 2014 to 9.6% in 2015. For 2015, ZMK4.5bn (USD707.5mn) has been allocated to health, out of which ZMK268.2mn (USD42.2mn) is for the construction and rehabilitation of health infrastructure in various parts of the country. In addition, ZMK753.5mn (USD118.5mn) has been set aside for the procurement of essential drugs and medical supplies, while ZMK52.5mn (USD8.3mn) will be for the recruitment of more than 2,000 health officers.

  • President Michael Sata died in October 2014. Although this was not entirely unexpected, due to his recent ill health, it raises political and economic uncertainty, with questions surrounding who will succeed Sata on a permanent basis.

  • In October 2014, The Central Statistical Office disclosed that Zambia's maternal mortality ratio has declined from 591 to 398 deaths per 100,000 live births. The CSO's deputy director, Sheila Mudenda,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Zambia 2011-2018)
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Zambia Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Rewards
34
Risks
34
Market Overview
36
Industry Trends And Developments
39
Epidemiology
39
Healthcare Sector
41
Regulatory Development
46
Demographic Forecast
51
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
52
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
53
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
54
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
54
Glossary
55
Methodology
57
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
57
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
57
Notes On Methodology
58
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Ratings Overview
60
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
60
Indicator Weightings
61

The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc