Business Monitor International


Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 12 May 2014

  • 65 pages
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$1,295.00
Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   The disparity between urban and rural healthcare provision in Zambia is showing signs of being addressed, with the recent opening of the first ever hospital to serve the district of Chienge. This, along with ongoing governmental training initiatives aimed at improving the skills of Zambian healthcare professionals, is likely to attract talent to the country. That said, speculation over President Sata's ill health, along with delays in the construction of 650 healthcare clinics across the country cast some doubt on whether the government can make good on its promises.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZMK1,212bn (USD225mn) in 2013 to ZMK1,393bn (USD231mn) in 2014; +15% in local currency terms and +2.9% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: ZMK7,654bn (USD1.42bn) in 2013 to ZMK8,853bn (USD1.47bn) in 2014; +15.7% in local currency terms and +3.5% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Zambia ranks 23nd in our Q314 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) for the MEA region.

Key Trends & Developments

  • The charity AIDS Healthcare Foundation has established a clinic called the Chifundo Clinic in Chaisa Township in Lusaka. It was opened in May 2014 and aims to provide free services such as HIV testing, tuberculosis treatment, and Anti Retroviral Therapy for around 10,000 people.

  • In June 2014 it was reported in Zambian press that the first ever hospital in Chienge had been commissioned. The district of Chienge was established in 2007 and has a population of around 110,000, many of whom previously had to travel to neighbouring districts for medical procedures and access to essential medicines. Overall in the district, seven health posts are also expected to be recruited for.

  • In July 2014, Health Minister Joseph Kasonde admitted that the government is concerned at the lack of progress being made with the construction of the 650 healthcare clinics the government has pledged to build across the country. However, Kasonde says the government...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: Zambia - Economic Activity
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Middle East & Africa
29
Zambia Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Market Overview
39
Industry Trends And Developments
42
Epidemiology
42
Healthcare Sector
44
Regulatory Development
49
Demographic Forecast
54
Demographic Outlook
54
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
55
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
56
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
57
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
57
Glossary
58
Methodology
60
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
60
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
60
Notes On Methodology
61
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
62
Ratings Overview
63
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
63
Indicator Weightings
64

The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc