BMI View: We maintain an optimistic outlook for the country's food and drink industry over our forecast period. With expectations for strong economic growth, a favourable demographic profile and a gradually emerging middle class, Zambia remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in the region. That said, short-term challenges remain, including continued pressures on an already ailing Zambian kwacha and the prospect of industrial unrest within the public sector workforce. With the World Bank expecting little, if any, improvement in the global commodities market during the last quarter of 2014 or through much of 2015, this will also continue to weigh on the Zambian economy.
Total food consumption growth (local currency) in 2014: 9.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR), 2013 to 2018: 9.7%
Mass grocery retail sales growth (local currency) in 2014: 14.8%; CAGR to 2018: 14.9%
Fuelled by significant investments in the mining industry and associated increases in export volumes, Zambia's real GDP is projected to grow by 6.7% in 2014. Strong economic performance will drive private consumption in the medium term, forming a solid basis for growth in all consumer industries, especially food, drink and mass grocery retail (MGR). Private consumption is expected to increase by 6.5% in 2014.
Private consumption is likely to remain constrained in the short term following the recent removal of government subsidies for fuel and maize. BMI believes that the removal of subsidies will result in price growth across the board, thus putting downward pressure on private consumption as household purchasing power diminishes.
Demographics will remain favourable for the expansion of the food, drink and MGR sectors. Zambia has an estimated population of 14.1mn, and this is projected to increase to 16.6mn over the forecast period. This will result in a significant increase in the youth population, which is vital for the...
The Zambia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Zambia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Zambia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian food and drink market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Zambia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.
Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.
Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.
Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.