Business Monitor International


Zambia Food & Drink Report

Published 14 November 2014

  • 44 pages
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$1,295.00
Zambia Food & Drink Report

BMI View:   We maintain an optimistic outlook for the country's food and drink industry over our forecast period. With expectations for strong economic growth, a favourable demographic profile and a gradually emerging middle class, Zambia remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in the region. That said, short-term challenges remain, including continued pressures on an already ailing Zambian kwacha and the prospect of industrial unrest within the public sector workforce. With the World Bank expecting little, if any, improvement in the global commodities market during the last quarter of 2014 or through much of 2015, this will also continue to weigh on the Zambian economy.    

Key Forecasts

  • Total food consumption growth (local currency) in 2014: 9.0%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR), 2013 to 2018: 9.7%

  • Mass grocery retail sales growth (local currency) in 2014: 14.8%; CAGR to 2018: 14.9%

Key Views

Fuelled by significant investments in the mining industry and associated increases in export volumes, Zambia's real GDP is projected to grow by 6.7% in 2014. Strong economic performance will drive private consumption in the medium term, forming a solid basis for growth in all consumer industries, especially food, drink and mass grocery retail (MGR). Private consumption is expected to increase by 6.5% in 2014.

Private consumption is likely to remain constrained in the short term following the recent removal of government subsidies for fuel and maize. BMI believes that the removal of subsidies will result in price growth across the board, thus putting downward pressure on private consumption as household purchasing power diminishes. 

Demographics will remain favourable for the expansion of the food, drink and MGR sectors. Zambia has an estimated population of 14.1mn, and this is projected to increase to 16.6mn over the forecast period. This will result in a significant increase in the youth population, which is vital for the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
Industry Forecast
7
Zambia - Food
7
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
8
Table: Preserved Fish Sales & Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
8
Table: Crude Soya Bean Oil Sales & Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
9
Table: Cheese Sales & Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
10
Zambia - Mass Grocery Retail
12
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
13
Macroeconomic Forecast
14
Table: Zambia - Economic Activity
19
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
22
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q314 (scores out of 10)
25
Market Overview
26
Global Industry Overview
30
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
39
Demographic Forecast
40
Demographic Outlook
40
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
41
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
42
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
43
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
43
Glossary
44
Food & Drink
44
Mass Grocery Retail
44
Methodology
46
Industry Forecast Methodology
46
Sector-Specific Methodology
47
Sources
47
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
48
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
49
Table: Weighting
50

The Zambia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Zambia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Zambia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Zambia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc