Business Monitor International


Zambia Autos Report

Published 12 August 2014

  • 51 pages
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$1,295.00
Zambia Autos Report

Zambia's strong economic fundamentals, such as substantial investment inflows to the mining sector, improving productivity in the copper sector, expansionary fiscal policy and a rise in private consumption, will prove beneficial to the long-term outlook for auto sales. Despite downgrading our 2013 real GDP growth outlook last quarter, we maintain our overall optimistic outlook for new vehicle sales in the country.

The new car segment in Zambia, although still small, will be supported by growth in financing. This will enable new brands to access the market and widen the competitive landscape.

The growth of vehicle financing and leasing in Zambia means it is becoming possible for more new car brands, even from higher price points, to access the market. As Nissan Motor doubles down on its efforts to increase its presence in the country and Volkswagen (VW) arrives with a new showroom, the availability of various forms of financing will support growth in the nascent new car segment, forecast by BMI to average 16% over 2014-18.

Volkswagen, which will open a showroom through FCM Motors in Lusaka on August 1, cited the growth of financing as a factor in attracting the brand to Zambia. As a brand with a 'price premium on our products', according to FCM sales and marketing office Maxwell Mutanda, it is important for customers to have access to finance. As such, FCM has partnered with Stanbic Zambia and First National Bank to offer various financing plans.

We retain our view that the Zambian economy will expand by 6.9% in 2014 up from an estimated 6.3% in 2013, thanks to strong private consumption, robust investment and resilient exports. We are currently forecasting the new vehicle sales market in 2018 to reach over 6,800 units, more than twice the size in 2012, when BMI estimates that only 2,639 new vehicles were sold.

The autos segment will also draw some strength from increased government and business purchases, which we believe will continue to account for the lion's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2018)
13
Production
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Zambia 2011-2018)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk and Reward Ratings
26
Company Profile
27
Company Monitor
27
Regional Overview
30
Autos Investment Round-Up: Export Potential Keeps Majors In South Africa
30
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Production Investments
30
Global Industry Overview
32
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
32
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
32
Trucks Give North America A Lift
33
India Brings Relief To BRICs
35
Demographic Forecast
37
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
38
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
39
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
40
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
40
Methodology
41
Industry Forecasts
41
Sector-Specific Methodology
42
Sources
42
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
43
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
44

The Zambia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Zambia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Zambia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Zambian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc