Our sales forecasts in volume terms have been given a significant increase, based on a change to historic data showing that sales for 2012 and 2013 came in over 5,000 units. While we still expect strong growth over the five-year forecast period, the change in historical base now means that by the end of our forecast period in 2018, we expect sales of over 9,000 units, which is a big upgrade to our previous outlook. We believe the new car segment in Zambia, although still small, will be supported by growth in financing. This will enable new brands to access the market and widen the competitive landscape.
We expect private consumption to be a key driver of growth in 2014 and 2015, forecasting 6.5% growth in both years. This will be boosted by good harvests in the agricultural sector and with this being the case, we could see some of this income being re-invested in new commercial vehicles. In the private sector, another increase to wages in the 2014 budget, following a previous hike in September 2013, will contribute to higher personal spending, which should be more beneficial to the passenger car segment.
Some carmakers feel that more can be done to promote the new vehicle segment in African markets such as Zambia, where second-hand sales still account for the bulk of the market. France's Renault, which is due to launch its brand in Zambia in January 2015 hopes to convince governments in the region that the second-hand market takes away state revenues and should be regulated.
Renault has reached an agreement with local firm F-One Hazida Limited for the distribution of its products in Zambia. It will initially start out with three models - the Duster, Fluence and Koleos - and will start with 'tens of units', which aligns with our forecasts for the market to remain small in volume terms. Returning to the issue of affordability, Renault's operational manager for the region, Viatcheslav Kozlov, said the models had been chosen for the Zambian market specifically for...
The Zambia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Zambia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Zambia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Zambian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.