Business Monitor International


Zambia Autos Report

Published 29 April 2014

  • 51 pages
 
$1,295.00
Zambia Autos Report

Zambia's strong economic fundamentals, such as substantial investment inflows to the mining sector, improving productivity in the copper sector, expansionary fiscal policy and a rise in private consumption, will prove beneficial to the long-term outlook for auto sales. Despite downgrading our 2013 real GDP growth outlook last quarter, we maintain our overall optimistic outlook for new vehicle sales in the country.

The new car segment in Zambia, although still small, will be supported by growth in financing. This will enable new brands to access the market and widen the competitive landscape.

The growth of vehicle financing and leasing in Zambia means it is becoming possible for more new car brands, even from higher price points, to access the market. As Nissan Motor doubles down on its efforts to increase its presence in the country and Volkswagen (VW) arrives with a new showroom, the availability of various forms of financing will support growth in the nascent new car segment, forecast by BMI to average 16% over 2014-18.

Volkswagen, which will open a showroom through FCM Motors in Lusaka on August 1, cited the growth of financing as a factor in attracting the brand to Zambia. As a brand with a 'price premium on our products', according to FCM sales and marketing office Maxwell Mutanda, it is important for customers to have access to finance. As such, FCM has partnered with Stanbic Zambia and First National Bank to offer various financing plans.

We retain our view that the Zambian economy will expand by 6.9% in 2014 up from an estimated 6.3% in 2013, thanks to strong private consumption, robust investment and resilient exports. We are currently forecasting the new vehicle sales market in 2018 to reach over 6,800 units, more than twice the size in 2012, when BMI estimates that only 2,639 new vehicles were sold.

The autos segment will also draw some strength from increased government and business purchases, which we believe will continue to account for the lion's...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2018)
13
Production
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Table: Zambia - Economic Activity
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa
26
Company Profile
27
Company Monitor
27
Regional Overview
30
Global Industry Overview
38
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
38
European Growth Gathers Momentum
38
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
40
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
41
Demographic Forecast
44
Demographic Outlook
44
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
45
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
46
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
47
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
47
Methodology
48
Industry Forecasts
48
Sector-Specific Methodology
49
Sources
49
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
50
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
51

The Zambia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Zambia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Zambia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Zambian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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