Business Monitor International


West Africa Mining Report

Published 27 January 2014

  • 104 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
West Africa Mining Report

BMI View: West Africa's mining sector is set to grow rapidly as investment pours into the region's phenomenal mineral wealth. Much of this growth will be focused on iron ore and gold as the region has untapped and high-grade reserves of both minerals. We expect the bulk of the growth in the mining sector to take place towards the end of the forecast period as many of the projects are still in their early stages of development.

We expect West Africa to exhibit some of the fastest rates of growth in iron ore production over the coming years which will make the region a major export hub by 2018. We expect steady growth in gold production in Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali and Burkina Faso, however we highlight that weak gold prices will squeeze margins for gold miners and precipitate mine closures where cash costs become unsustainable.

Mining Sector Boom
Select Countries - Mining Industry Value (US$bn)

The key risks to our positive outlook are primarily the region's perennially weak infrastructure, as power supplies, road and rail routes are struggling with current demands, let alone the rapid growth we forecast. Secondly, political risk remains elevated in West African countries as years of instability and political stalemate have taken a heavy toll on business environments in the region. Mining code reviews and potentially damaging regulatory developments have the potential to deter investment. Finally, weak iron ore prices constitute a further risk to future investment. We forecast iron ore prices to average US$102/tonne over the period 2014-2018, significantly lower than their 2011 average of US$176/tonne.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Guinea Iron Ore: Pushing Back The Boom
10
Potential For Chinese Investment In Infrastructure
11
Elevated Political Risk
12
Table: Guinea - Main Iron Ore Projects
13
Table: Guinea - Iron Ore Production (million tonnes)
13
Guinea Bauxite: Fourth-Largest Producer By 2018
14
Table: Guinea - Key Expansion Plans
16
Political Risk & Poor Infrastructure To Weigh On Investment
17
Table: Guinea - Bauxite Production (million tonnes)
18
Sierra Leone Iron Ore: Export Boom
18
Table: Sierra Leone - Main Iron Ore Projects
21
Table: Sierra Leone - Iron Ore Production (million tonnes)
22
Mauritania: Mining Sector To Receive Boost, But Overshadowed By Neighbours
22
Table: Mauritania - Key Mining Projects
25
Gradual Steps To Improve Infrastructure
25
Table: Mauritania - Iron Ore & Gold Production
25
Mali Gold: Sound Growth Outlook Despite Political Uncertainties
26
Sizeable Downside Risks
27
Government Support
28
Table: Mali - Largest Gold Projects
29
Political Risk Subdued
29
Table: Mali - Gold Production
29
Ghana Gold: Headwinds For Gold Miners
29
Government Measures To Increase Difficulties
32
Table: Ghana - Gold Production (million oz)
32
C-te d'Ivoire Gold: Surge Ahead, But Major Risks Lurk
32
Major Downside Risks Ahead
34
Table: C-te d'Ivoire - Largest Gold Projects
35
Table: C-te d'Ivoire - Gold Production (million ounces)
35
Liberia Iron Ore: Revitalising The Industry
35
Relatively Stable Business Environment
36
Table: Liberia - Main Iron Ore Projects Under Development
37
Downside Risks
37
Table: Liberia Iron Ore Production & Growth
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Lower Gold Prices Reduce Rewards
39
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Reduced Rewards For Copper Mining
40
Mixed Rankings For West Africa
41
Substantial Rewards In Southern Africa
41
Lack Of Uniformity In Regulatory Development
42
Political & Infrastructure Risks Lurk
43
Country Highlights
44
South Africa: Deteriorating Environment For Mining Companies
44
Mozambique: Mining Sector Set To Boom
45
Botswana: All Round Outperformer
45
Market Overview
46
Iron Ore To Take Centre Stage
47
Table: West Africa - Main Projects
47
Table: West Africa - Key Mining Production
49
Regulatory Development
50
Mauritania: Mining Sector To Remain Investor Friendly
50
Ghana: Surprise Plans For A Windfall Tax
50
Mining Reviews For Mali And Sierra Leone
51
Tough Conditions In Guinea And Cote d'Ivoire
51
Future Possibility Of Regulation Harmonization
51
Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook
51
Commodities Forecast
53
Commodity Strategy
53
Steel: Locked In Secular Downtrend
55
Aluminium: US$1,800/tonne To Provide Strong Support
55
Copper: Bearish View In Place Despite Some Recovery
56
Nickel: Despite Recent Gains, Downside Risks Dominate
58
Zinc: Channelling Support
60
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI forecasts
61
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
62
Competitive Landscape
63
Table: Financial Metrics
64
Company Profile
65
Randgold Resources
65
Table: Randgold Resources - Financial Results
68
AngloGold Ashanti
69
Overview
70
Strategy
71
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data
72
Rio Tinto
74
Company Overview
76
Company Strategy
77
Latest Financial Results
78
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
79
Regional Overview
80
Africa Overview
80
Key Opportunities
80
1
80
2
81
3
82
Key Challenges
83
1
83
2
84
3
85
Table: Africa - Key Mining Regulatory Developments
86
Global Industry Overview
87
Methodology
99
Industry Forecast Methodology
99
Sources
100
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
101
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
102
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
103

The West Africa Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's West Africa Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc