Business Monitor International


West Africa Mining Report

Published 18 November 2014

  • 104 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
West Africa Mining Report

BMI View: West Africa's iron ore production growth will face difficult times ahead, as t he collapse in global iron ore prices and outbreak of the Ebola virus will slash mining companies' revenue , limit capital expenditure options , force the evacuation of workers and disrupt supply chains.

Weak global prices and the Ebola virus outbreak will dent West Africa's growth outlook as mining companies suffer reduced revenue, difficulties in obtaining finance and lacking infrastructure.

Growth To Be Gradual
Select Countries - Iron Ore Production (Mn tonnes)

Côte d'Ivoire - Côte d'Ivoire's mining sector has the potential to grow rapidly, but political risk and inadequate infrastructure will remain major hurdles for investors, which will deter investment. We expect Côte d'Ivoire's gold output to grow solidly over the coming quarters, as Endeavour Mining's Agbaou mine ramps up production, followed by steady growth thereafter.

Guinea - Although Guinea is home to one of the world's richest iron ore deposits, we believe the country's mining sector growth will continue to face headwinds over the coming years. We expect to see projects increasingly delayed in light of weak iron ore prices, the Ebola epidemic, insufficient infrastructure and political instability. Mining projects are likely to come online at a slower than planned pace resulting disappointing output growth.

Weak Prices, Lower Margins
Note: China Iron Ore Import Price, 62% Grade CFR, USD/tonne

Liberia - In Liberia, the combination of a collapse in iron ore prices and the Ebola outbreak have radically changed the country's operating environment by slashing mining companies' revenue, limiting financing options, forcing the evacuation of workers and disrupting supply chains. For example, ArcelorMittal laid off 400 workers in December 2014, citing significant delays to the company's projects.

Ebola Forcing Workers To Evacuate
Liberia - Iron Ore Mines

Mali - Weak global gold prices and gold companies'...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Guinea Iron Ore: Pushing Back The Boom
10
Potential For Chinese Investment In Infrastructure
11
Elevated Political Risk
12
Table: Guinea - Main Iron Ore Projects
13
Table: Guinea - Iron Ore Production & Growth
13
Guinea Bauxite: Fourth-Largest Producer By 2018
14
Table: Guinea - Key Expansion Plans
16
Political Risk & Poor Infrastructure To Weigh On Investment
17
Table: Guinea - Bauxite Production & Growth
18
Sierra Leone: Iron Ore Export Boom
18
Table: Sierra Leone - Main Iron Ore Projects
21
Table: Sierra Leone - Iron Ore Production & Growth
22
Mauritania: Mining Sector To Receive Boost, But Overshadowed By Neighbours
22
Table: Mauritania - Key Mining Projects
25
Gradual Steps To Improve Infrastructure
25
Table: Mauritania - Mine Production & Growth
25
Ghana Gold: Headwinds For Gold Miners
26
Government Measures To Increase Difficulties
28
Table: Ghana - Gold Production & Growth
29
C-te d'Ivoire Gold: Growth Ahead, But Major Risks Lurk
29
Major Downside Risks Ahead
31
Table: C-te d'Ivoire - Largest Gold Projects
32
Liberia Iron Ore: Revitalising The Industry
32
Relatively Stable Business Environment
33
Table: Liberia - Main Iron Ore Projects Under Development
34
Downside Risks
34
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Production Forecast & Growth
34
Mali: Troubled Times Ahead
35
Table: Mali - Gold Production & Growth
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Large Rewards On Offer - With Varying Degrees Of Risk
39
Gold Producers Lag The Pack
40
Largest Quarterly Change In South Africa
41
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Guinea Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Rewards
42
Industry Rewards
42
Country Rewards
43
Risks
43
Industry Risks
43
Country Risks
44
Table: Guinea - Mine Production & % Growth
44
Liberia Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
44
Industry Rewards
44
Country Rewards
44
Risks
45
Industry Risks
45
Country Risks
45
Table: Liberia Mine Production Forecasts
46
Regulatory Development
47
Mauritania: Mining Sector To Remain Investor Friendly
47
Ghana: Surprise Plans For A Windfall Tax
47
Mining Reviews For Mali And Sierra Leone
48
Tough Conditions In Guinea
48
Cote d'Ivoire Taking Positive Steps
48
Future Possibility Of Regulation Harmonization
48
Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook
49
Commodities Forecast
51
Commodity Strategy
51
Ferrous Metals:
51
Iron Ore: Price Slump Overdone, Stabilisation In Sight
51
Steel: Price Forecast Revised Up
52
Non-Ferrous Metals:
54
Aluminium: Recent Break Signals Multi-Month Strength
54
Copper: Subdued Prices Into Q314
55
Lead: Prices To Strengthen As Deficit Deepens
56
Nickel: H214 Rally Unlikely
57
Tin: More Resilient Than Other Metals
58
Zinc: Sustained Break Unlikely
60
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
62
Competitive Landscape
63
Table: Financial Metrics
64
Company Profile
65
AngloGold Ashanti
65
Overview
67
Strategy
68
Risks
69
Latest Results
69
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data
70
Randgold Resources
71
Table: Randgold Resources - Key Financial Data
74
Rio Tinto
75
Company Overview
77
Company Strategy
78
Latest Financial Results
79
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
81
Regional Overview
82
Chinese Quest For Minerals Undeterred
82
Table: Select Projects - Chinese Mining Investment In Africa
82
Look To West Africa For Rapid Growth
83
Tin Mining To Make A Comeback
84
Flurry Of Investment Into Southern African Coal
85
Changing Landscape For Precious Metals
86
Risks & Opportunities In Infrastructure
88
Global Industry Overview
90
Capex Cutbacks To Yield Rewards
90
M&A Activity To Pick Up
91
High Grade Opportunities In Iron Ore
92
Shifting Centre Of Growth For Platinum
93
Chinese & Indian Outbound Mineral Investment To Gather Pace
94
Shake-Up For Global Rare Earths Industry
95
Methodology
97
Industry Forecast Methodology
97
Sources
98
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
99
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
101

The West Africa Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's West Africa Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc