Latest GDP figures show that the Vietnamese economy grew by 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q1 2014, and we believe that our 2014 real GDP growth forecast of 5.9% remains in sight. Indeed, we believe that increased macroeconomic stability, combined with pro-growth policies will help the economy accelerate from 2013 levels, which will be welcome news for the country's shipping sector. Key downside risks to this view include a faster-than-anticipated slowdown in China, as well as the stalling of the country's reform drive.
We believe that government policies aimed at promoting balanced economic growth, improving the stability of the banking system, diversifying exports, attracting foreign investment and attracting investment in infrastructure bode well for the economic outlook.
The Port of Ho Chi Minh City is Vietnam's outperformer in terms of total tonnage handled by a long way, a situation we do not envisage changing any time soon. Growth across the board is set to be impressive this year, with the Port of Ho Chi Minh City beating domestic peer the Port of Da Nang in y-o-y tonnage and box throughput terms, the latter reaching double-digits at Ho Chi Minh City in 2014.
Headline Industry Data
2014 tonnage throughput at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to grow 7.57% to 41.81mn tonnes.
2014 tonnage throughput at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 7.00% to 5.36mn tonnes.
2014 container throughput at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to rise 10.00% to 4.62mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
2014 container throughput at the Port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 9.43% to 183,239TEUs.
2014 total trade real growth is forecast to increase 6.55%.
Key Industry Trends
Ho Chi Minh Set For Double-Digit Growth : Double-digit annual growth is set to return to the Port of Ho Chi Minh City in 2014 once more, matching the feat last achieved two years ago. We forecast container throughput to remain impressive over the next 12 months, rising 10%...