The growth levels at Vietnam's two major ports - Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang - are set to continue to impress in both the short and medium term. Whereas the port of Ho Chi Minh City is anticipated to lead the way in year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage throughput terms in 2015 (y-o-y gains of 7.62%), the port of Da Nang is set to register the highest box throughput increase this year, hitting double digit growth (10.00%). Vietnam's external health will improve gradually over the coming years, as we expect a gradual narrowing of the country's fiscal deficit, which is the catalyst behind our positive forecasts for the country's shipping sector. We forecast Vietnam's external debt as a share of GDP to fall from an estimated 37.6% in 2013 to 22.0% by 2023.
However, while the Vietnamese economy has gained momentum over recent quarters, it continues to face several structural risks that pose a threat to its long-term growth. In addition to the fragile banking sector, which is heavily burdened by the high level of non-performing loans, the health of Vietnam's external position has been a concern amongst investors and multinational companies alike. Indeed, the country has one of the highest external debts as a share of GDP among its regional peers, with the ratio at an estimated 37.6% in 2013. This may prove to be a factor in keeping international shippers away from investing in Vietnam.
Headline Industry Data
2015 tonnage throughput at the port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to grow 7.62% to 44.99mn tonnes.
2015 tonnage throughput at the port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 6.50% to 5.71mn tonnes.
2015 container throughput at the port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to rise 8.00% to 4.99mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
2015 container throughput at the port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 10.00% to 206,320TEUs.
2015 total trade real growth is forecast to increase 6.65%.
Key Industry Trends
Congestion Drives Up Shipping Costs
A preference for Ho...
The Vietnam Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Vietnam.
BMI's Vietnam Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Vietnam.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Vietnam through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.