Business Monitor International


Vietnam Food & Drink Report

Published 08 October 2014

  • 124 pages
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$1,295.00
Vietnam Food & Drink Report

BMI View:   We hold a positive outlook for the Vietnamese consumer, as the government targets economic growth through public spending and promoting investment and exports. We forecast real GDPP growth to come in at 6.4% in 2015, and we continue to believe that the economy will be driven by growth supportive government policies, as well as a strong outlook for foreign investment and exports. That said , our Country Risk team has recently revised down its forecast for Vietnamese economic growth in 2015, and political risks remain in the form of Chinese tensions, which we believe will continue for some time.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 total food consumption (local currency) growth: +19.2%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018: +15.5%.

  • 2014 per capita food consumption (local currency) growth: +18.1%; CAGR to 2018: +14.7%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks value (local currency) sales growth: +12.0%; CAGR to 2018: +8.7%.

  • 2014 soft drinks value (local currency) sales growth: +10.5%; CAGR to 2018: +7.5%.

  • 2014 MGR sales (local currency) growth: +13.3%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018: +9.9%.

Key Industry Trends

In early August 2014, the German cash-and-carry retailer Metro is planning to sell its Vietnam business, potentially pulling in EUR1.75bn. The decision to leave Vietnam is driven by the need to re-focus on its core Europe business and strengthen its balance sheet, rather than being based on any major structural issues or re-rating in the growth profile of the organised food retail sector. Like some of the other major European retailers, namely Carrefour and Tesco, Metro has had to rein in spending internationally over the past two to three years as retail sales across Western Europe have remained weak while, more recently, Russia, one of Metro's key markets, has slowed down in 2014. We still see Vietnam as one of South-East Asia's best retail opportunities.

Vietnam will benefit from Russia's ban on agricultural imports from...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
18
Canned Food
19
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
19
Confectionery
20
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
24
Pasta
26
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
26
Dairy
26
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
27
Drink
28
Alcoholic Drinks
28
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
30
Hot Drinks
31
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
32
Soft Drinks
33
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Vietnam 2013-2018)
34
Mass Grocery Retail
36
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
40
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
40
Trade
41
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
42
Macroeconomic Forecast
43
Economic Analysis
43
Table: Economic Activity (Vietnam 2009-2018)
49
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
50
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
50
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q414
51
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q414 (scores out of 10)
55
Vietnam Risk/Reward Ratings
56
Market Overview
58
Food
58
Agriculture
58
Food Processing
59
Food Consumption
59
Drink
61
Hot Drinks
61
Soft Drinks
61
Alcoholic Drinks
62
Mass Grocery Retail
65
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Vietnam 2005-2014)
66
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Vietnam 2011-2018)
66
Industry Trends And Developments
68
Food
68
Key Industry Trends And Developments
68
Drink
73
Key Industry Trends And Developments
73
Mass Grocery Retail
81
Key Industry Trends And Developments
81
Competitive Landscape
85
Table: Key Players In Vietnam's Food Sector
85
Table: Key Players In Vietnam's Drink Sector
85
Table: Key Players In Vietnam's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
86
Company Profile
88
Vinamilk
88
Table: Vinamilk's Financial Highlights, 2008-2013
97
Unilever Vietnam
99
Nestl- Vietnam
102
Masan Consumer
104
San Miguel Pure Foods Vietnam Co Ltd
107
Hanoi Beer Alcohol Beverage Corp (Habeco)
109
Saigon Beer Alcohol And Beverage Corporation (Sabeco)
112
Carlsberg
114
Saigon Co-op
116
Global Industry Overview
119
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
125
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
127
Demographic Forecast
128
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
129
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
130
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
131
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
131
Glossary
132
Food & Drink
132
Mass Grocery Retail
132
Methodology
134
Industry Forecast Methodology
134
Sector-Specific Methodology
135
Sources
135
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
136
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
137
Table: Weighting
138

The Vietnam Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Vietnam Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Vietnam.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Vietnam through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc