We forecast that Vietnam will spend up to USD7.7bn on defence in 2015. This is a notable increase from the USD6.7bn which the country spent on defence last year. On average, Vietnamese defence expenditure has risen since the commencement of the decade. Up to and including 2019, we expect Vietnam to spend an average of USD9.3bn on defence annually, with defence spending reaching USD11.1bn in 2019.
We have given Vietnam an overall security risk index of 75 for Q115. On average, the country has scored an overall security risk index of 76 for the period February 2009 up to and including Q115. As the discussion below will illustrate, we believe that Vietnam faces a moderate risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. That said, we believe that the country has a low risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack, although it does face a moderate risk of experiencing major criminal activity.
Key Risks To Outlook
Vietnam faces a number of security issues. Cambodia has accused Vietnam of performing border violations, with maritime disputes between the two countries also existing. Similarly, tensions exist with China which occupies the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by Vietnam. In addition, Vietnam continues the construction of facilities in the disputed Spratly Islands, while occasional tensions have existed in the past with Indonesia regarding illegal fishing.
In October 2014, the United States took the decision to authorise the sale of lethal military equipment to Vietnam. The US has performed this change of policy to strengthen Vietnamese maritime security in the face of security threats from China. Equipment mooted for possible future sale to Vietnam include Lockheed Martin P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft and C-130 turboprop freighters from the same company.
The Vietnam Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Vietnam Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese defence and security industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese defence and security market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Global and Regional Political Outlooks
A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.
Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.
Political Risk Assessment
Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.
Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure
The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.
Domestic Security Overview
The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).
Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).
Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Domestic Security Overview
The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.