Business Monitor International


Vietnam Defence & Security Report

Published 29 July 2014

  • 63 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Vietnam Defence & Security Report

BMI View: The Vietnamese defence sector is quickly opening up to foreign companies. Rising tension with China necessitates development of new defence relationships, as well as modernisation and expansion of the national defence forces. Meanwhile, strong economic growth is increasing the financing available for procurement of new military hardware .

Vietnam is involved in territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, most notably over the Spratly and Parcel Islands. Tensions reached a new high in May which resulted in a two month stand-off between opposing naval forces, and small scale skirmishes between vessels. Tension came to a head in August, when a Vietnamese envoy to Beijing successfully ended the stand-off. Relations remain fraught however, and China is likely to exert economic pressure on its neighbour, which could have serious consequences for Vietnamese defence capabilities.

Beijing's increasing assertiveness has had a pronounced effect on Vietnam's defence policy over the past decade. Indeed, between 2005 and 2012 Vietnam's defence spending doubled. As with most other neighbouring countries, regional tensions have ensured that defence sales have remained buoyant despite various economic challenges. Over the past few months, Vietnam has taken delivery of a number of pieces of defence equipment from other countries, and has sought to increase ties with the US.

Given this increasing appetite for new defence equipment, as a result of rising tensions with China in the South China Sea, Vietnam has become a key market for a range of countries. While Moscow has always been Hanoi's primary defence partner, due to the latter's reliance on Soviet-era equipment, a number of European defence companies are also expanding ties with the country. Airbus Helicopter, French naval company DCNS and European missile-maker MBDA are all reportedly looking to win contracts in Hanoi.

Defence ties with the US have continued to strengthen following US Secretary of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key BMI Forecasts
8
Recent Developments
8
SWOT
9
Vietnam Security SWOT
9
Vietnam Defence SWOT
12
Political
14
Economic
15
Business Environment
16
Industry Forecast
17
Defence Expenditure
17
Table: Defence Expenditure (Vietnam 2011-2018)
17
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Vietnam 2011-2018)
20
Armed Forces
20
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Vietnam 2004-2011)
21
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Vietnam 2011-2018)
21
Defence Trade
22
Table: Defence Trade Balance (Vietnam 2011-2018)
22
Imports
23
Table: Defence Imports (Vietnam 2011-2018)
23
Exports
24
Table: Defence Exports (Vietnam 2011-2018)
24
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Table: Foreign Direct Investment By Country Of Origin (Top Five)
29
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Asia Security Risk Ratings
31
Table: Asia Pacific Security Risk Ratings
31
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
32
Vietnam Security Risk Ratings
33
Market Overview
34
Vietnam Defence Market Overview
34
Recent Developments
34
Armed Forces
35
Domestic Industries
36
Imports
38
Vietnam Security Overview
41
Domestic Threats
41
Regional Threats
42
International Threats
44
Regional Overview
46
Political Risk Analysis
46
Global Industry Overview
59
Global Political Outlook
59
Methodology
65
Industry Forecast Methodology
65
Sector-Specific Methodology
66
Sources
67
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
67
Table: Indicators And Weighting
68

The Vietnam Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Vietnam Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc