Business Monitor International


Vietnam Agribusiness Report

Published 12 December 2014

  • 147 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Vietnam Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Recent developments in the country's economic and business environment outlooks add further weight to our positive view on Vietnam's agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities in terms of production, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairy sectors. Moreover, the upcoming economic and financial integration in South East Asia will benefit Vietnam's exports of rice, dairy and coffee. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets, and the fulfillment of its promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness and improves both product quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investments on crop productivity in order to not be left behind, and if it does, it will be able to produce more value-added crops and maintain its status as an export spearhead.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2005-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Rice consumption growth to 2018: 5.1% to 22.1mn tonnes. Rice remains the major food staple in Vietnam, and we do not see this changing over our forecast period. However, rising interest in other foods such as wheat-based goods - supported by growing affluence - will restrict demand for rice, and over the forecast period we expect production growth to significantly outpace that of consumption.

  • Corn production growth to 2017/18: 32.9% to 6.4mn tonnes. Although acreage is likely to remain stagnant or diminish; current yield immaturity means significant gains are still available via this avenue, especially as robust local corn prices provide incentives to farmers. Domestic consumption will be another important driver.

  • Milk production growth to 2017/18: 60.3 % to 721,400 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbers and increased public and private sector investment - part of an effort to reduce the country's growing import dependency - will be the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Dairy Outlook
12
Table: Butter Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
13
Table: Cheese Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
13
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
13
Table: Whole Milk Powder Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
14
Table: Butter Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
19
Table: Cheese Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
19
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
19
Table: Whole Milk Powder Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
19
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
22
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
22
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
22
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
27
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
27
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
28
Coffee Outlook
29
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
30
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
36
Rice Outlook
37
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2012-2018)
38
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
41
Grains Outlook
42
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
43
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
47
Featured Analysis
48
Vietnam's Uncompetitive Sugar Sector At Risk From ASEAN Integration
48
Table: VIETNAM SUGAR PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION, 2013-2018
53
Commodities Price Analysis
54
Monthly Softs Strategy
54
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
62
Monthly Grains Strategy
63
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
72
Upstream Analysis
73
Asia GM Outlook
73
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
79
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
80
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
84
Asia Machinery Outlook
86
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
86
Table: Selected Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
90
Downstream Analysis
94
Food
94
Food Consumption
94
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
96
Canned Food
96
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
97
Confectionery
98
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
102
Pasta
104
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
104
Dairy
104
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
105
Drink
106
Alcoholic Drinks
106
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
108
Hot Drinks
109
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
110
Soft Drinks
111
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Vietnam 2013-2018)
112
Mass Grocery Retail
114
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
118
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
118
Regional Overview
119
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
121
Table: Selected Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
125
Competitive Landscape
127
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn)
127
Demographic Forecast
128
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
129
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
130
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
131
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
131
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Sector-Specific Methodology
133

The Vietnam Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Vietnam Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Vietnam.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Vietnam Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc