Business Monitor International


Vietnam Agribusiness Report

Published 20 March 2014

  • 147 pages
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$1,295.00
Vietnam Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Recent adjustments in our outlook for Vietnam's economy and business environment add further weight to our positive view on the country's agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities in terms of production, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairy sectors. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets, and the fulfilment of its promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness and improves product quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investment in crop productivity in order to avoid being left behind, and if it wants to succeed in producing more value-added crops and maintaining its status as an export spearhead.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of Total) (2010-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Rice consumpt ion growth to 2018: 4.0% to 22.2 mn tonnes. Rice remains the major food staple in Vietnam, and we do not see this changing over our forecast period. However, rising interest in other foods such as wheat-based goods - supported by growing affluence - will restrict demand for rice, and over the forecast period we expect production growth to significantly outpace that of consumption.

  • Corn pr oduction growth to 2017/18: 32.9 % to 6. 4 mn tonnes. Although acreage is likely to remain stagnant or diminish; current yield immaturity means significant gains are still available, especially as robust local corn prices provide incentives to farmers. Domestic consumption will be another important driver.

  • Milk production growth to 201 7/18 : 21.9% to 484,700 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbers and increased public and private sector investment - part of the effort to reduce the country's growing import dependency - will be the main boost to growth. Commercialisation will also play a key role as larger, more efficient farms come to play a greater role in milk...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Dairy Outlook
13
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
14
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
14
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
14
Table: Whole Milk Powder Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018
15
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
20
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
20
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
20
Table: Whole Milk Powder Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013
20
Livestock Outlook
22
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
23
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
23
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
23
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
28
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
28
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
29
Coffee Outlook
30
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
31
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
36
Rice Outlook
38
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2012-2018)
39
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
42
Grains Outlook
43
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2018)
44
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2008-2013)
48
Featured Analysis
49
Bright Outlook For Agribusiness In Vietnam
49
Commodities Price Analysis
55
Monthly Softs Update
55
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
64
Monthly Grains Update
64
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
74
Upstream Analysis
75
Asia GM Outlook
75
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012
81
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
81
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg
85
Asia Machinery Outlook
88
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
91
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, ha
95
Downstream Analysis
99
Food
99
Food Consumption
99
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
101
Canned Food
102
Table: Canned Food Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
102
Confectionery
103
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
104
Pasta
106
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
106
Dairy
108
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
109
Drink
110
Alcoholic Drinks
110
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
112
Hot Drinks
115
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
116
Soft Drinks
117
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
119
Mass Grocery Retail
121
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
123
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
124
Regional Overview
125
Table: Hourly Textile Industry Wages By Country (USD)
129
Table: Select Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
131
Competitive Landscape
132
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn)
132
Company Profile
133
Global Company Strategy
133
Table: Vinamilk's Financial Highlights, 2008-2013
141
Demographic Forecast
143
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
144
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
145
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
146
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
146
Methodology
147
Industry Forecast Methodology
147
Sector-Specific Methodology
148

The Vietnam Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Vietnam Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Vietnam.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Vietnam Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc