Business Monitor International


Venezuela Shipping Report

Published 04 June 2014

  • 111 pages
 
$1,295.00
Venezuela Shipping Report

Venezuela's fiscal deficit will narrow significantly in 2014 thanks to the government's greater purchasing power afforded by the ongoing devaluation of the currency. However, we have downgraded our budget forecasts following a deterioration in the outlook for the country's oil and gas production. We are forecasting a budget deficit of 6.7% of GDP in 2014, and 6.5% in 2015, compared to 9.8% in 2013.

We expect that the fiscal deficit, while still wide, will contract significantly in 2014 thanks to reforms to the country's exchange rate system which effectively amounts to a major devaluation of the currency. Given that a large share of public receipts are denominated in dollars, through revenues in the oil and gas sector, this will strengthen the government's position by allowing it to purchase far more bolivars in order to fund its expenditures. We forecast that the fiscal deficit will come in at 6.7% of GDP in 2014, and 6.5% in 2015, compared to an estimated 9.8% of GDP in 2013.

Venezuela's current account will remain under significant pressure due to the poor performance of the oil sector and other industries producing goods for exports. While import growth is also likely to have fallen in recent months, we maintain our view that the current account surplus will narrow from 2.1% of GDP estimated in 2013 to 2.1% in 2014.

We forecast that Venezuela's current account surplus - which was regularly in double digits as a percentage of GDP prior to the global financial crisis in 2009 - will continue to narrow in 2014. We expect the surplus to come in at 2.1% of GDP, down from 2.3% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2012. Over the longer term, we expect that ongoing adjustments to the exchange rate will weigh on the growth of imports, and the current account strengthen briefly in 2015. Nevertheless, slow growth in the export sector due to a lack of investment - particularly the vital oil industry - will keep the current account surplus narrow in the coming years.

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Shipping
9
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Puerto Cabello Throughput
14
Port Of La Guaira Throughput
17
Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2017
19
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
20
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
21
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
22
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
22
Market Overview
23
Venezuela Container Shipping Overview
23
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Company Profile
33
Petr-leos de Venezuela Marina
33
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
35
Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
35
Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
46
Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
48
Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
51
Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
55
Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
55
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
56
Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long-
56
Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
61
Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
67
Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
67
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
68
Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
68
Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
71
LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
74
Global Company Strategy
77
Maersk Line
77
Mediterranean Shipping Company
86
CMA CGM
91
Evergreen Line
99
COSCO Container Lines Company
105
Hapag-Lloyd
112
Hanjin Shipping
118
APL
123
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
130
Mitsui OSK Lines
137
Macroeconomic Forecasts
142
Table: Venezuela - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
146
Demographic Forecast
147
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
148
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
149
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
150
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
150

The Venezuela Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Venezuela.

BMI's Venezuela Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Venezuela.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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