Business Monitor International


Venezuela Retail Report

Published 17 April 2014

  • 58 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Venezuela Retail Report

BMI View:   Rising incomes and an increasing number of middle class households make Venezuela's retail market attractive. However, these plus points are overshadowed by the uncertain business environment and economic instability.

The new Venezuelan Retail Report provides an extensive and comprehensive forecast of various retail indicators including household spending, and headline total spending across each retail sub-sector, household income and employment forecasts, demographic forecasts, and a detailed breakdown of household and per capita spending across a large number of retail areas.

We are forecasting real GDP growth of just 1.2% in 2014, in the face of high inflation and the challenges posed to the business environment by the government. This growth rate is far below the average 5.8% seen over the past decade, but above our 2013 estimation of 2.0% growth.

Although Venezuela's retail sector has benefited from relatively high GDP growth over the last decade, with much expansion seen in the areas of mass grocery retail (MGR) and shopping malls, the industry now has a range of problems with which to contend.

The business environment, specifically government policy, is unpredictable, and the threat of expropriation remains real. Meanwhile the state is heavily involved in various aspects of the retail industry, subsidising and running MGR chains, which creates a highly uneven playing fields for private-sector firms in the market, as wells as setting rental rate maximums for commercial real estate, which has affected mall operators.

Meanwhile high inflation, which seriously erodes purchasing power, exchange rate issues, and shortages of basic goods all make it difficult for retailers to operate in Venezuela.

In the short term, therefore, although we see good growth in household incomes, and an increasing number of middle class Venezuelan's with disposable incomes, the risks in the market remain great, and we are not seeing much interest from international...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Industry Forecast
11
Table: Venezuela Retail Sales Indicators, 2010-2017
11
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f
13
Organised Retail
13
Macroeconomic Forecasts
14
Macroeconomic Forecast
14
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
18
Latin American Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
18
Venezuela Risk/Reward Ratings
19
Limits To Potential Returns
19
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
19
Market Overview
21
Current Trends
21
Key Players
22
Regional Overview
24
Latin American Regional Overview
24
Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2010-2017
24
Latin America Retail Trends
25
Table: Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
25
Table: % of Regional Retail Sales, 2010-2017
26
Table: Latin American Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
27
Table: Latin American Mass Grocery Retail, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
30
Mass Grocery Retail
37
Mass Grocery Retail - SWOT
37
Mass Grocery Retail - Industry Forecast
39
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
39
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type
40
Mass Grocery Retail - Market Overview
40
Consumer Electronics
42
SWOT
42
Industry Forecast
44
Table: Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2010-2017
45
Market Overview
48
Autos
53
SWOT
53
Industry Forecast
54
Table: Vehicle Sales By Brand
54
Table: Production By Brand, January-May
55
Table: Production By Brand, June-September
56
Table: Passenger Car Segment, 2010-2017
58
Market Overview
59
Demographic Forecast
61
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
62
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
63
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
64
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
64
Methodology
65
Sources
66

The Venezuela Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Venezuela Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc