Business Monitor International


Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Published 06 November 2014

  • 112 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   W e maintain   a cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector d espite vast upstream potential and ambitious plans by PdVSA .   We expect Venezuela to continue to   underperform given the large scope   of operational challenges, such as political interference, chronic underinvestment, unattractive operating environment and a precarious financial situation facing the dominant national oil company .

Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,475.0 2,475.0 2,496.4 2,536.5 2,589.1 2,654.8 2,734.4
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,023.1 1,094.7 1,149.4 1,164.4 1,179.5 1,194.9 1,210.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 776.9 784.0 806.0 828.5 851.7 875.6 900.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 22.7 28.4 29.5 30.4 30.7 31.0 32.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 24.6 30.5 31.6 32.7 33.6 34.7 35.7
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

Key developments this quarter:

  • Our production forecast for crude and other liquids has remained stable this quarter, reflecting a modest 2.0% average yearly increase through 2018 as a result of planned developments coming online. However, we also note a continued underperformance in oil production as a result of chronic underinvestment, deficient infrastructure, and a lack of maintenance to existing facilities.

  • Production of gas will rise an average of 2.4% per year but will continue to fall short of the country's total consumption demands. With the continued closure of the Trans-Caribbean gas pipeline, which began in May 2014, Venezuela will continue to suffer from a deficit of natural gas as they struggle to produce their vast reserves.

  • National oil company (NOC) PdVSA has maintained its strong hold over...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Venezuela 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Venezuela 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2012-2017)
18
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2018-2023)
18
Table: Funding Through Joint Ventures, 2013
25
Upstream Production - Gas
26
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2012-2017)
26
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2018-2023)
26
Refining
30
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2012-2017)
30
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2018-2023)
30
Refined Fuels Consumption
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Venezuela 2012-2017)
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Venezuela 2018-2023)
34
Gas Consumption
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2017)
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2018-2023)
37
Trade - Oil
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
41
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Venezuela 2012-2017)
43
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Venezuela 2018-2023)
43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
47
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
49
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
55
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
57
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Ratings
57
Venezuela Upstream Ratings
57
Venezuela Downstream Ratings
58
Market Overview
59
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
59
Overview
59
State Role
59
Licensing And Regulation
60
Government Policy
60
International Energy Relations
61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
65
Oil Refineries
65
Table: Refineries In Venezuela
65
Oil Pipelines
68
LNG Terminals
69
Gas Pipelines
69
Competitive Landscape
71
Competitive Landscape Summary
71
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil And Gas Sector
72
Table: Key Upstream Players
72
Table: Key Downstream Player
73
Company Profile
74
PdVSA
74
Chevron
81
Total Venezuela
84
Repsol Venezuela
87
Other Summaries
91
Regional Overview
96
Latin America Overview
96
Global Industry Overview
105
Global Energy Market Overview
105
Appendix
111
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels and Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
111
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
112
Latin America - Regional Appendix
114
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
114
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
120
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
120
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
121
Venezuela - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
122
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
122
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
122
Venezuela - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Venezuela 2012-2017)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Venezuela 2018-2023)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Venezuela 2012-2017)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Venezuela 2018-2023)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Venezuela 2012-2017)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Venezuela 2018-2023)
128
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
129
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
129
Glossary
131
Table: Glossary Of Terms
131
Methodology
133
Industry Forecast Methodology
133
Source
135
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
135
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
137
Table: Weighting
138

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc