Business Monitor International


Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 112 pages
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$1,295.00
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We retain a cautious stance on the Venezuelan oil and gas sector . While a flurry of new loans and deals may improve the financial position of PdVSA over the short term, the threat that badly needed funds will diverted from investment into the oil and gas sector to fund social program me s remains as real as ever. Moreover, a lthough our long - term forecasts call for growth as projects in the Orinoco belt ramp up, we expect Venezuela to continue its underperformance given the scale of challenges - which range from political interference to chronic underinvestment. Similarly, despite abundant gas reserves, we expect Venezuela to remain a net importer of gas over the course of our forecast period.

The key trends and developments in Venezuela's oil and gas sector are:

  • We continue to hold a conservative outlook for Venezuelan oil production, seeing more downside risk than upside in the near term in the absence of a wider overhaul of the sector. We acknowledge that there is some scope for improvement, with PdVSA having reported a flurry of recent loans and credit deals, which will see substantial funds pumped into the troubled firm to support upstream development. This could allow for some long-stalled projects in the Orinoco Belt to advance. However, the risk remains strong that, as in the past, funds intended to support the chronically underfunded oil and gas sector could be diverted to support additional social expenditure.

  • In the medium term, production growth will remain sluggish until near the end of the decade, when we expect a modest acceleration, as planned and proposed developments in the Orinoco belt come online. Our conservative forecast assumes continued delays and problems that have been a hallmark of the country's oil sector.

  • Despite Venezuela's unfavourable licensing terms and difficult business environment, which have forced international oil companies including ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, and more recently Petronas and ...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Venezuela Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Venezuela Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Venezuela Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Venezuela Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Table: Funding Through Joint Ventures
21
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Venezuela Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
23
Table: Venezuela Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
24
LNG
28
Table: Venezuela Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
28
Table: Venezuela Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
29
Refining
29
Revenues/Import Costs
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
34
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
37
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Venezuela Upstream Ratings
39
Venezuela Downstream Ratings
40
Market Overview
41
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
41
Overview
41
Licensing And Regulation
42
Government Policy
42
International Energy Relations
43
Table: Venezuela - Upstream Projects Database
47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
48
Oil Refineries
48
Table: Refineries In Venezuela
49
Oil Pipelines
52
LNG Terminals
54
Gas Pipelines
54
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil And Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
57
Table: Key Downstream Player
58
Company Profile
59
PdVSA
59
Chevron
66
Total Venezuela
69
Repsol Venezuela
72
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
80
Latin America Overview
80
Global Industry Overview
89
Appendix
96
Latin America - Regional Appendix
96
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
96
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
100
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
100
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
101
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
102
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
102
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
103
Glossary
104
Table: Glossary Of Terms
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Source
108
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
108
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
110
Table: Weighting
112

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc