Business Monitor International


Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Published 06 November 2014

  • 137 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: W e maintain a cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector d espite vast below- ground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PdVSA . We expect Venezuela to continue to underperform given the large scope of operational challenges, such as political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and a precarious financial situation facing the dominant national oil company . Moreover, the sustained fall in global oil prices will further deteriorate production growth prospects as both PdVSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capex funds.

Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,475.0 2,496.4 2,432.3 2,381.7 2,332.7 2,263.8 2,208.1
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,094.7 1,149.4 1,164.4 1,179.5 1,194.9 1,210.4 1,226.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 784.0 806.0 828.5 851.7 875.6 900.1 925.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 28.4 28.7 29.5 31.0 31.3 31.6 32.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 30.5 31.6 32.7 33.6 34.7 35.7 36.8
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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Key developments this quarter:

  • The rapid decline in world oil prices over the past several months has hit Venezuela particularly hard. State-owned PdVSA provides approximately 95% of the country's total exports and nearly 42% of the country's total revenues. Given the unlikelihood of a price recovery, there is a rising risk of a PdVSA default, though we believe this is unlikely to happen in 2015.

  • Venezuelan heavy crude is trading at the lowest levels in over five years, hitting USD42.44/bbl at time of writing. This will weigh on the national oil company's (NOC) capex plans given...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Venezuela 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Venezuela 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
17
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2012-2017)
17
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2018-2023)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
25
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2012-2017)
25
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2018-2023)
25
Refining
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2012-2017)
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2018-2023)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Venezuela 2012-2017)
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Venezuela 2018-2023)
33
Gas Consumption
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2017)
35
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2018-2023)
35
Trade - Oil
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
40
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Venezuela 2012-2017)
42
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Venezuela 2018-2023)
42
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
46
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
46
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
48
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index
49
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
52
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
54
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
55
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview
55
Venezuela Downstream Index - Overview
56
Market Overview
58
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
58
Overview
58
State Role
58
Licensing And Regulation
59
Government Policy
59
International Energy Relations
60
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
65
Table: Refineries In Venezuela
65
Oil Pipelines
68
LNG Terminals
69
Gas Pipelines
69
Competitive Landscape
71
Competitive Landscape Summary
71
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil And Gas Sector
72
Table: Key Upstream Players
72
Table: Key Downstream Player
73
Company Profile
74
PdVSA
74
Chevron
81
Total Venezuela
84
Repsol Venezuela
87
Other Summaries
91
Regional Overview
96
Latin America Overview
96
Global Industry Overview
104
Table: Key US Production Zones Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
106
Table: Canadian Oil Sands Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
107
Table: Middle East Onshore Conventional Breakeven Cost Per Barrel, (USD/BBL)
108
Table: Average Fiscal Breakeven Prices Of Key Middle East Producers 2014 (USD/bbl)
108
Appendix
110
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
110
Table: Energy Price Forecasts ( Global 2012-2017)
110
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2018-2023)
111
Latin America - Regional Appendix
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
117
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
119
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
119
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
120
Venezuela - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
121
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
121
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
121
Venezuela - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Venezuela 2012-2017)
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Venezuela 2018-2023)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Venezuela 2012-2017)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Venezuela 2018-2023)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Venezuela 2012-2017)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Venezuela 2018-2023)
127
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2012-2017)
128
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2018-2023)
128
Glossary
130
Table: Glossary Of Terms
130
Methodology
132
Industry Forecast Methodology
132
Source
134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
134
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
136
Table: Weighting
137

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc