Business Monitor International


Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 May 2014

  • 112 pages
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$1,295.00
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We retain a cautious stance on the Venezuelan oil and gas sector . While a flurry of new loans and deals may improve the financial position of PdVSA over the short term, the threat that badly needed funds will diverted from investment into the oil and gas sector to fund social program me s remains as real as ever. Moreover, a lthough our long - term forecasts call for growth as projects in the Orinoco belt ramp up, we expect Venezuela to continue its underperformance given the scale of challenges - which range from political interference to chronic underinvestment. Similarly, despite abundant gas reserves, we expect Venezuela to remain a net importer of gas over the course of our forecast period.

The key trends and developments in Venezuela's oil and gas sector are:

  • We continue to hold a conservative outlook for Venezuelan oil production, seeing more downside risk than upside in the near term in the absence of a wider overhaul of the sector. We acknowledge that there is some scope for improvement, with PdVSA having reported a flurry of recent loans and credit deals, which will see substantial funds pumped into the troubled firm to support upstream development. This could allow for some long-stalled projects in the Orinoco Belt to advance. However, the risk remains strong that, as in the past, funds intended to support the chronically underfunded oil and gas sector could be diverted to support additional social expenditure.

  • As such, we expect that liquids production growth will remain sluggish until near the end of the decade, when we expect a modest acceleration, as planned and proposed developments in the Orinoco belt come online. Our conservative forecast of 2.8% average year-on-year growth assumes continued delays and problems that have been a hallmark of the country's oil sector.

  • Despite Venezuela's unfavourable licensing terms and difficult business environment, which have forced international oil companies including

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Proven Oil & Gas Reserves & Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data 2, 2018-2023
12
Oil Production
14
Table: Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Table: Funding Through Joint Ventures, 2013
22
Gas Supply And Demand
24
Table: Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
24
Table: Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
25
LNG
28
Refining & Oil Products Trade
29
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
29
Table: Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
30
Revenues/Import Costs
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
38
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
43
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Venezuela Upstream Ratings
46
Venezuela Downstream Ratings
46
Market Overview
48
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
48
Overview
48
State Role
48
Licensing And Regulation
49
Government Policy
49
International Energy Relations
50
Table: Venezuela - Upstream Projects Database
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
55
Oil Refineries
55
Table: Refineries In Venezuela
55
Oil Pipelines
58
LNG Terminals
59
Gas Pipelines
59
Competitive Landscape
61
Competitive Landscape Summary
61
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil And Gas Sector
62
Table: Key Upstream Players
62
Table: Key Downstream Player
63
Company Profile
64
PdVSA
64
Chevron
71
Total Venezuela
74
Repsol Venezuela
77
Other Summaries
81
Regional Overview
86
Latin America Overview
86
Global Industry Overview
96
Global Energy Market Overview
96
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
98
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
99
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
100
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
102
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
102
Appendix
105
Latin America - Regional Appendix
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
111
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
111
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
112
Venezuela - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
118
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
119
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
120
Glossary
121
Table: Glossary Of Terms
121
Methodology
123
Industry Forecast Methodology
123
Source
125
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
125
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
127
Table: Weighting
128

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc