Business Monitor International


Venezuela Freight Transport Report

Published 03 December 2013

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$1,295.00
Venezuela Freight Transport Report

BMI View: As an important oil - exporting economy Venezuela retains substantial resilience despite recent economic mismanagement and heightened political risk. BMI 's view is therefore that the economy will continue to see positive but disappointingly low GDP numbers. After 5.6% GDP growth in 2012, we estimate the pace fell to 2.0% in 2013, and are forecasting that it will reduce further to 1.5% in 2014. On the political front President Nicolás Maduro, elected in early 2013, will continue to follow the left-wing and nationalist policies of his predecessor , the late Hugo Chávez. But Maduro lacks Chávez' leadership skills and political instincts, and so will be more exposed to in-fighting within the ruling Partido Socia lista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV); he may not be able to command as much army support as his predecessor.

Growth drivers will be oil revenue and the trade surplus (both somewhat reduced), government social spending and private consumption. Private consumption represents around 60% of Venezuelan GDP. Its rate of growth will however be undermined by high inflation, which has touched 45%, a 16-year high. Chaotic price freezes and foreign exchange controls have meanwhile led to widespread shortages and misallocation of resources. We believe another big devaluation of the local currency will be unavoidable in 2014. Investment, meanwhile, which has been significant in recent years, will fall because the government will prioritise current spending for political reasons, and because the private sector will be put off by political risk and high levels of uncertainty. The contribution from net exports to growth has also dwindled. Oil production has been falling while imports have surged by an annual average of 15.8% over the last decade as the country becomes increasingly reliant on basic goods produced abroad. The weak bolivar and currency controls are now slowing import growth.

Our view on the country's freight transport sector continues to be...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Venezuela Freight Transport Industry SWOT
7
Venezuela Political SWOT
8
Venezuela Economic SWOT
9
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT
9
Industry Trends And Developments
10
Market Overview
14
Industry Forecast
17
Macroeconomic Outlook
17
Air Freight
17
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
17
Maritime Freight
18
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
18
Trade
18
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
19
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
19
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
20
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
21
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
22
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
23
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
27
Political Outlook
32
Domestic Politics
32
Domestic Politics: Long-Term Outlook
34
Macroeconomic Outlook
37
Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
39
Company Profiles
40
Consorcio Venezolano de Industrias Aeron
Consorcio Venezolano de Industrias Aeron

The Venezuela Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Venezuela Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc