Business Monitor International


Venezuela Freight Transport Report

Published 09 December 2014

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Venezuela Freight Transport Report

Low Cargo Growth Expected in 2015

BMI envisages very low cargo volume growth in 2015, due to a standstill economy and a number of industry-specific problems. The freight transport sector faces ongoing concerns about the lack of sustainable import demand and slowing oil exports. Chronic mismanagement of the country's port facilities since they were nationalised in 2009 has damaged their international reputation and their profit-making capabilities. We do not expect any significant recouping of lost throughput levels over the medium term. Over a longer period, investments from China could see the facilities begin to regain some lost ground. Regarding other transport modes, airfreight sector remains restricted by currency controls. Venezuela lacks reliable data on its small rail freight and large road haulage volumes, but cargo growth on both will be kept to low single percentage digits.

BMI remains bearish on the current and immediate outlook for the Venezuelan economy. We have cut back our forecast for economic growth, and are now predicting GDP expansion of only 0.8% in 2015, following an estimated contraction of 2.0% in 2014. Even this is subject to significant downside risk. The massive distortions in the Venezuelan economy caused by complicated and ever-changing government policies, a hostile business climate, and rampant inflation will cap growth over the coming years. Productive capacity has been shrinking, a number of businesses have been forced to close, and downward revisions of international oil price forecasts are expected to have a serious impact, since crude oil is in effect the only significant Venezuelan export.

Headline Industry Data

  • Air freight volume carried in 2015 will expand by 3.7% to 5.11mn tonnes-km, with average annual growth of 3.7% to 2019.

  • 2015 Puerto Cabello tonnage throughput growth forecast at 1.1%. Slow growth - lagging behind GDP - is expected to continue over the medium term, averaging 1.6% to 2019.

  • 2015 port of La Guaira...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Venezuela Freight Transport Industry SWOT
7
Venezuela Political SWOT
8
Venezuela Economic SWOT
9
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT
9
Industry Trends And Developments
10
Market Overview
14
Industry Forecast
17
Macroeconomic Outlook
17
Air Freight
17
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
17
Maritime Freight
18
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
18
Trade
18
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
19
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
19
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
20
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009
21
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
22
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
23
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth
27
Political Outlook
32
Domestic Politics
32
Domestic Politics: Long-Term Outlook
34
Macroeconomic Outlook
37
Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity, 2011-2016
39
Company Profiles
40
Consorcio Venezolano de Industrias Aeron
Consorcio Venezolano de Industrias Aeron

The Venezuela Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Venezuela Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc