BMI View: The prospect of currency unification in 2015, which is our in-house Country Risk team's core scenario, is expected to add to the negative trends already impacting consumer electronics spending in Venezuela and result in a sharp contraction in US dollar spending. Meanwhile, t he push by the government to implement the 'fair price' law in H114, which restrict ed vendor margins to 30%, means vendors face continued political as well as economic risk factors. The law adds to a hostile business environment and exacerbates existing challenges for vendors including currency weakness, and economic, political and security risks that are weighing on purchasing power and consumer confidence. As the economy is stabilised in the latter years of our forecast period we believe there is considerable potential in the Venezuelan market, with vendors potentially able to tap opportunities arising from low device penetration in key categories such as smartphones, tablets and flat-screen TVs, as well as pent up demand from a period of economic instability.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD917mn in 2014 to USD517mn in 2015. Demand expected to contract in real terms as high inflation and the devaluation of the bolívar reduce household spending power, while also raising the price of components required for local assembly.
AV Sales: USD854mn in 2014 to USD721mn in 2015, -15.6% in US dollar terms. Demand for flat-panel TV sets hit by currency weakness, and we expect the market will continue to contract beyond 2015.
Handset Sales: USD1.1bn in 2014 to USD1.0bn in 2015, -5.8% in US dollar terms. The relative strength of local handset manufacturing and operator subsidies will help to absorb some of the impact of devaluation, resulting in stronger performance compared with the other consumer electronics segments.
Key Trends & Developments
BMI expects unification of exchange rates for the bolivar in 2015 to prove a major disruptive...
The Venezuela Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Venezuela.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Venezuela Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Venezuela.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.