Business Monitor International


Venezuela Autos Report

Published 13 November 2014

  • 50 pages
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$1,295.00
Venezuela Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Venezuela declined 85.6% y-o-y, to 8,236 units, in the first six months of 2014 as the increasingly poor economic outlook impacts the sector. BMI is increasingly bearish on Venezuela's private consumption outlook, and we expect this to lead to a 95% drop in autos sales over the full year.

Vehicle production in Argentina declined 83.3% y-o-y in the first six months of 2014, to 6,161 units, as the domestic market contracts and the country's business environment deteriorates. BMI forecasts a 75% decline in output over the full year as these dynamics continue to hamper the sector.

BMI has long maintained a bearish outlook on vehicle production in Venezuela, as the government continues to intervene in the economy, further restricting access to foreign currency and implementing import restrictions on auto components. The ongoing weakness in the local currency will also serve to make supplier imports more expensive, further exacerbating the shortage of components. Furthermore, the worsening business environment makes profitable operations in the country increasingly difficult as the government seeks to limit profit margins for companies.

BMI has long maintained that in order to see sustained growth in vehicle production, the regulatory environment needs a complete overhaul, particularly in the issuance of assembly permits and access to foreign currency. This does not look likely, however, and Venezuela continues to rank below the regional average on BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Production, Sales and Trade
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
12
Production
13
Table: Venezuela Vehicle Production By Brand
13
Sales
14
Table: Venezuela Vehicle Sales By Brand
15
Used Cars
16
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
18
Commercial Vehicles
21
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
21
Suppliers
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Table: Americas Risk Reward Ratings
32
Company Profile
33
Industry Trend Analysis
33
Regional Overview
36
Industry Trend Analysis
36
Table: Argentina Sources Of Autos Financing
37
Global Industry Overview
44
Global Overview
44
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
44
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
44
Trucks Give North America A Lift
45
India Brings Relief To BRICs
47
Demographic Forecast
49
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
50
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
51
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
52
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
52
Methodology
53
Industry Forecasts
53
Sector-Specific Methodology
54
Sources
54
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
55
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Venezuela Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Venezuela Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Venezuela.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Venezuelan automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc