Vehicle sales in Venezuela declined 87.5% y-o-y, to 3,213 units, in Q114 as the increasingly poor economic outlook also impacts the demand side of the sector. Inflation is running very high, eroding consumers' purchasing power and appetite for big ticket purchases, such as new cars. High interest rates curtail demand for vehicle loans, and the ongoing weakness in the Venezuelan bolivar (and further weakness in the unofficial exchange rate) increasingly makes vehicle imports more expensive in local currency terms
Vehicle production in Venezuela declined 76.1% y-o-y in the first three months of 2014, to 3,424 units, as the domestic market contracts and the country's business environment deteriorates. BMI forecasts a 75% decline in output over the full year as these dynamics continue.
BMI has long maintained a bearish outlook on vehicle production in Venezuela, as the government continues to intervene in the economy, further restricting access to foreign currency and implementing import restrictions on auto components. The ongoing weakness in the local currency will also serve to make supplier imports more expensive, further exacerbating the shortage of components. Furthermore, the worsening business environment makes profitable operations in the country increasingly difficult as the government seeks to limit profit margins for companies.
BMI has long maintained that in order to see sustained growth in vehicle production, the regulatory environment needs a complete overhaul, particularly in the issuance of assembly permits and access to foreign currency. This does not look likely, however, and Venezuela continues to rank below the regional average on BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings.
The Venezuela Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Venezuela Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Venezuela.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Venezuelan automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.