Business Monitor International


Venezuela Autos Report

Published 07 February 2014

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$1,295.00
Venezuela Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Venezuela declined 63.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December, to 2,959 units. We expect to see a 24.3% drop in the sector in 2013, as the poor macro picture in Venezuela is increasingly impacting consumer sentiment. Inflation is running very high, eroding consumers' purchasing power and appetite for big ticket purchases, such as new cars. High interest rates curtail demand for vehicle loans, and the ongoing weakness in the Venezuelan bolivar increasingly makes vehicle imports more expensive in local currency terms.

BMI remains bearish on vehicle production in Venezuela, as the government continues to intervene in the economy, further restricting access to foreign currency and implementing import restrictions on vehicle components. Furthermore, the ongoing weakness in the currency will serve to make supplier imports more expensive, exacerbating shortages of components. Indeed, vehicle production in Venezuela decreased 31% y-o-y in 2013, to 71,753 units, as these dynamics continue to play out. The declines in the market moderated in the middle of the year due to lower base effects. We forecasted a 31% drop in output for the year as the ongoing deterioration in the country's macro picture impacted the segment.

BMI has long maintained that in order to see sustained growth in vehicle production, the regulatory environment needs a complete overhaul, particularly in the issuance of assembly permits and access to foreign currency. This does not look likely, however, and Venezuela continues to rank below the regional average on BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Production, Sales and Trade
12
Sales
12
Table: Autos Sales
12
Table: Venezuela Vehicle Sales By Brand
14
Used Cars
15
Production
16
Table: Autos Production
16
Table: Venezuela Vehicle Production By Brand
18
Trade
18
Table: Autos Trade, 2010-2017
18
Table: Car Ownership Rate, 2010-2017
19
Passenger Vehicles
20
Table: Passenger Car Segment
20
Commercial Vehicles
22
Table: Commercial Vehicle Segment
22
Suppliers
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Economic Analysis
25
Table: VENEZUELA - Economic Activity
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Table: BMI's Americas Risk/ Reward Ratings
32
Company Profile
33
Company Monitor
33
Regional Overview
36
Global Industry Overview
44
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
44
Europe On Road To Recovery
44
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
46
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
48
Demographic Forecast
51
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
52
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
53
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
54
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
54
Methodology
55
Industry Forecasts
55
Sector-Specific Methodology
56
Sources
56
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
57
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
58

The Venezuela Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Venezuela Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Venezuela.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Venezuelan automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc