BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the US shipping sector. After estimated contractions in TEU throughput at both the port of Los Angeles and the Port of New York/New Jersey in 2013, we forecast a return to growth in 2014 at both facilities. Our view for gradual strengthening in the US economy through end 2014 continues to play out, driven by a tightening labour market and sustained growth in the cyclical components of the economy, notably the residential housing sector and business investment in equipment.
The US economy will accelerate slightly this year, with real GDP growth increasing to 2.1% from 1.9% in 2013. Stronger contributions from personal consumption expenditure growth will be offset somewhat by slower fixed investment growth and a contraction in government spending, as well as a negative contribution from net exports. We believe risks are weighted to the upside across the US economy. The most likely of these risks, we believe, is that a greater-than-expected improvement in the labour market or consumer sentiment leads to much stronger demand for goods and services. Such an outcome could also lead to stronger business investment in capacity and support further housing market growth.
Key Industry Data
At the port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast 2.1% growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in total tonnage in 2014, to reach 64.4mn tonnes.
At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 3.1% y-o-y in 2014, to reach 139mn tonnes.
We expect LA to record growth of 7.6% in twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput in 2014, falling to 8.5mn TEUs.
We expect NY/NJ to record a growth of 6.2% in TEU throughput in 2014, to reach 5.8mn TEUs.
Tampa Port Authority Seeks Purchase Of Two Gantry Cranes
On August 19 2014, the Tampa Port Authority voted to initiate negotiations with Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industry Company for the purchase of two gantry cranes to be installed at the US port of Tampa Bay. The authority...
The United States Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in United States.
BMI's United States Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in United States.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in United States through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.