Business Monitor International


United States Real Estate Report

Published 28 February 2014

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Real Estate Report

There are several factors underpinning BMI's positive outlook for the Commercial Real Estate sector in 2014. Firstly, providing key support for the industrial sector is the steady increase of US domestic energy production and stronger real GDP growth in key US trade partners, including Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone, which we believe will increase external demand for US goods and services. Secondly, supporting the retail segment broad trends supporting stronger real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth remain in place, and as such we expect real PCE growth to continue to accelerate in 2014. Thirdly, the improved outlook for the economy and unemployment will support all three real estate segments.

Commercial real estate (CRE) expansion is dependent on a healthy macroeconomic environment. During Q413 we revised down our estimate for 2013 US real GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.8%, but we maintain that the US economy is gaining steam and is set for more rapid expansion. Indeed, we have upgraded our 2014 real GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.8% with growth set to average 2.4% per year from 2013-2018. A major factor in this improving economic outlook has been the improvement in US job creation and we have revised down our end-2013 and end-2014 unemployment rate forecasts from 7.5% and 7.2% to 7.2% and 6.8% respectively on the back of stronger than expected job gains.

With a focus on the cities of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas and Philadelphia, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of economic on a market that can dictate regional performance. We expect the cautious recovery seen across the US commercial real estate market in 2013 to gain traction over the course of the coming year with moderate-to-strong growth seen across the three main sub-sectors of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Office
14
Table: Forecast Rents, 2013-2014 (US$ per m2/month)
14
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
14
Retail
15
Table: Forecast Rents, 2013-2014 (US$ per m2/month)
15
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2011-2018 (%)
15
Industrial
16
Table: Forecast Rents, 2013-2014 (US$ per m2/month)
16
Table: Forecast Rents, 2013-2014 (US$ per m2/month)
16
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
17
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
17
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
26
Economic Analysis
26
Table: United States - Economic Activity
34
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Developed States Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: Developed States Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
35
United States Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Market Overview
37
Office
41
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases, H212
41
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2013 (%)
42
Table: Historic Rents, 2011-2013 (US$ per m2/month)
43
Retail
44
Table: Historic Rents -- 2012-2013 (USD per m2/month)
45
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
46
Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases, H212
47
Industrial
47
Table: Net Yield, 2012-2014 (%)
48
Table: Historic Rents, 2011-2013 (US$ per m2/month)
49
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases, H213
50
Competitive Landscape
51
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
51
Company Profile
52
Bechtel
52
Fluor Corporation
55
KBR
57
Turner Construction Company
59
Demographic Forecast
61
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
62
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
63
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
64
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
64
Methodology
65
Industry Forecast Methodology
65
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
66
Table: Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
69

The United States Real Estate Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts of major construction projects in the residential and commercial markets, plus rental prices and yields in major cities. The report critically analyses the prospects for real estate within the broader economic and financial context - both domestic and global - via our econometrically-modelled and clearly explained banking and economic forecasts and follows this through to evaluate the implications for REITs.

BMI's United States Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the real estate industry in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent real estate industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American real estate market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in United States through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering real estate and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the real estate sector and within the broader political, financial, economic and business environment.

Market Overview

Overview of the real estate sector, including analysis of existing/planned real estate developments and emerging industry trends in the office, industrial and commercial sectors.

Market Analysis

Features detailed city-level data and analysis on rental prices, yields, contract terms and real estate availability with separate chapters covering the office, retail and industrial sub-sectors.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historical data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for the domestic real estate industry and for the local and global finance industry. Indicators include:

Real Estate: Office, retail and industrial real estate yields for all major cities (%); short-term forecasts on minimum and maximum real estate rental prices by sub-sector (US$ per square metre, and local currency per square metre)

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%)

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$)

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Real Estate Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (real estate vendors, construction companies and financial investors) in the regional real estate market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc