Business Monitor International


United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 24 June 2014

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The US will remain the most attractive pharmaceutical market in the world for the foreseeable future. There is a considerable burden of disease, healthcare access is unparalleled, spending power is growing at a sustainable rate, innovative medicines are adopted rapidly and corporate activity is intense. The key risk to our outlook is downward pricing pressure, mainly from health insurers and pharmacy benefit managers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals : USD347.2bn in 2013 to USD352.8bn in 2014; 1.6% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly up from Q214 due to revision of historic data.

  • Healthcare : USD2,918bn in 2013 to USD3,112bn in 2014; +6.7% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly down from Q214 due to revision of historic data.

Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) : The US has a Pharmaceutical RRR score of 78.5 out of 100 for Q314. This is unchanged from Q214, Q114 and Q413, but slightly down from the 80.9 score recorded in Q313 - which was due to a downgrade in BMI's forecasts for pharmaceutical expenditure over the next ten years. Despite this negative development, the market remains highly attractive to all multinational drugmakers.

Key Trends And Developments

June 2014

  • The latest healthcare data point to much lower healthcare spending in the US in Q114, indicating that the US economy contracted at a much sharper pace than previously estimated. The US government previously reported that the economy contracted at a 1.0% annual rate in the January-March period, because healthcare industry spending was lower than expected. However, with the latest healthcare data now available, economists believe the economy contracted by at least 1.7%.

  • It was calculated that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)'s proposed change to the rules for generic drug labels could cost drug manufacturers, healthcare providers and patients billions of dollars. It could also restrict access to affordable prescription drugs for poor...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
22
Table: Number Of Dispensed Prescriptions By Therapy Area In The US (mn)
22
Table: Number Of Dispensed Prescriptions By Active Ingredient In The US (mn)
23
Patented Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
25
Table: Leading Patented Medicines By Non-Discounted Sales In The US (USDbn)
25
Table: Leading Therapeutic Classes By Non-Discounted Sales (USDbn)
26
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
28
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Economic Analysis
34
Table: UNITED STATES - GDP BY EXPENDITURE
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
43
United States Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Risks
49
Market Overview
51
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Healthcare Sector
54
Table: Key Features Of The Affordable Care Act By Year
57
Impact Of The Sequester
58
Research And Development
59
Clinical Trials
60
Contract/Clinical Research Organisations
62
Hospital Sector
63
Regulatory Development
64
Intellectual Property Regulations
77
Pricing And Reimbursement Environment
79
Late-2013 Government Shutdown
81
Competitive Landscape
84
Pharmaceutical Sector
84
Pharmaceutical Distribution
85
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
86
Company Profile
88
Pfizer
88
Merck
92
Eli Lilly
96
Amgen
100
GlaxoSmithKline
104
AstraZeneca
108
Demographic Forecast
112
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
113
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
114
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
115
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
115
Glossary
116
Methodology
118
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
118
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
118
Notes On Methodology
119
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
120
Ratings Overview
121
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
121
Indicator Weightings
122

The United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc