Business Monitor International


United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 28 February 2014

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Pharmaceutical companies are facing far greater opportunities and challenges than the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Healthcare reform in the US could have sought significant monetary contributions from drugmakers, but this did not materialise in a meaningful sense, primarily due to industry cooperation when the legislation was being drafted. Of greater near-term concern to pharmaceutical companies is the shifting pricing and reimbursement landscape globally.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals : US$341.2bn in 2013 to US$342.7bn in 2014; 0.4% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly up from Q114 due to industry factors.

  • Healthcare : US$2,978bn in 2013 to US$3,157bn in 2014; +6.0% growth in local currency terms. Forecast slightly down from Q114 due to industry factors.

Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) : The US has a Pharmaceutical RRR score of 78.5 out of 100 for Q214. This is unchanged from Q114 and Q413 but slightly down from the 80.9 score recorded in Q313, which was due to a downgrade in BMI's forecasts for pharmaceutical expenditure over the next ten years. Despite this negative development, the market remains highly attractive to all multinational drugmakers.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In February 2014, the FDA was considering significant changes to OTC medicine regulations, making it easier to react to new information on a product's safety or recommended use. Current rules are over 40 years old and do not require manufacturers to get approval as long as the main ingredient had previously been deemed safe and effective for that entire category of medicines. A public hearing on the matter will take place in late March 2014.

  • In January 2014, the FDA acted to prohibit Ranbaxy Laboratories from manufacturing and distributing active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from its facility in Toansa, India, for FDA-regulated drug products. The agency noted that the Toansa facility is now subject to certain terms of a consent decree...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: US Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: US Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
18
Table: US Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
18
Table: US Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: US Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
21
Table: Number Of Dispensed Prescriptions By Therapy Area In The US (mn)
21
Table: Number Of Dispensed Prescriptions By Active Ingredient In The US (mn)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: US Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
24
Table: Leading Patented Medicines By Non-Discounted Sales In The US (US$bn)
24
Table: Leading Therapeutic Classes By Non-Discounted Sales (US$bn)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: US Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
27
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
28
Table: US Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
30
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: US Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: United States - Economic Activity
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
42
United States Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Healthcare Sector
52
Table: Key Features Of The Affordable Care Act By Year
54
Impact Of The Sequester
56
Research And Development
57
Clinical Trials
58
Contract/Clinical Research Organisations
60
Hospital Sector
61
Regulatory Development
62
Regulatory Regime
62
Intellectual Property Regulations
75
Pricing And Reimbursement Environment
77
Late-2013 Government Shutdown
79
Competitive Landscape
82
Pharmaceutical Sector
82
Pharmaceutical Distribution
83
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
84
Company Profile
86
Pfizer
86
Merck
89
Eli Lilly
93
Amgen
97
GlaxoSmithKline
101
AstraZeneca
105
Demographic Forecast
109
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
111
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
112
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112
Glossary
113
Methodology
115
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
115
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
115
Notes On Methodology
116
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
117
Ratings Overview
118
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
118
Indicator Weightings
119

The United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc