Business Monitor International


United States Petrochemicals Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 133 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Petrochemicals Report

BMI View:   The US petrochemicals industry continues to expand on the back of growth in ethane availability as a result of shale gas exploitation. However, BMI 's latest US Petrochemicals Report warns that the global market may not be able to absorb the level of planned output growth while the domestic market will quickly become saturated. These factors provide considerable downside in the long-term, with the potential for world-scale projects to be scaled back.

According to the American Chemistry Council (ACC), following a 0.2% gain in March, the US Chemical Production Regional Index (US CPRI) was up 0.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2014. However, manufacturing production unexpectedly slipped during April, however, on a three-month moving average (3MMA), output of the nation's overall manufacturing sector was 0.6 percent higher in April, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in March. Comparing the first four months of 2014 to that in 2013, chemical production was up 1.1% y-o-y nationally, with six of the seven regions posting gains.

Measured on a 3MMA basis, overall chemical production was mixed with gains in the output of chlor-alkali and other inorganic chemicals, synthetic dyes and pigments, industrial gases, consumer products, adhesives, organic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and coatings. These gains were partially offset by declines in the production of plastic resins, pesticides, fertilizers, and manmade fibres. Synthetic rubber production was flat for a second straight month.

  • In line with our long held view that the residential construction sector would drive the recovery in the US construction industry, we believe 2014 will see another positive year for growth in the sector, thereby supporting construction-related chemicals such as PVC. Real industry value is expected to expand by 1.8%, driven primarily by a 2.0% expansion in residential and non-residential building, an upward revision from 1.6% in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Petrochemicals
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2010-2017
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Outlook
19
Weakness In Most Categories of GDP
22
Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %
22
Risks To Outlook
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Divergence: Large Markets Take The Lead
30
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Market Overview
35
Table: Geographical Concentration Of Chemicals Production
35
Industry Trends And Developments
37
Cracker Developments
37
Table: US Petrochemical Expansions Based On Shale Gas
37
Polymers And Intermediates
39
Methanol
40
Collapse Of The PIC-Dow Merger
41
Regulatory Development
42
Regulatory Developments
42
Hydraulic fracturing (Fracking)
43
Competitive Landscape
45
Upstream
45
Olefins
46
Table: Olefins Production Capacity, '000tpa
46
Aromatics
49
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity, '000tpa
50
Mixed Xylenes
51
Table: Xylenes Capacity, '000tpa
51
Polyethylene (PE)
52
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications
52
Table: PE Chain Capacity, '000tpa
53
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)
54
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE)
54
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)
55
Polypropylene (PP)
56
Table: US PP Capacity, '000tpa
57
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)
58
Table: PVC Chain Capacity, '000tpa
58
Polystyrene (PS)
60
Table: PS Chain Capacity, '000tpa
60
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)
61
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector - PET Chain Capacity, '000tpa
61
Company Profile
63
BP
63
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company
67
Dow Chemical
70
ExxonMobil
74
Huntsman
77
Ineos
80
LyondellBasell
82
Shell Chemicals
85
Westlake Chemical
88
Regional Overview
90
Americas Overview
90
Latin America: Leading Emerging Market Consumption Growth
90
No Prospect Of A South American Shale Boom
91
US Shale Creates Uncertainty In LatAm
92
Brazil Weakening, But Only Mexico Gaining
93
Global Industry Overview
95
Global Industry Overview
95
Change In Feedstock, But Not In Market Cycle
96
Polymers Heading On Different Trajectories
98
Global Oil Product Price Outlook
98
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
99
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
99
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
102
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
105
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
107
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
107
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
108
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
108
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
112
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
113
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
114
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
114
Glossary
115
Table: Glossary of Petrochemicals Terms
115
Methodology
116
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
116
Cross Checks
117
Risk/Reward Ratings
117
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale
118
Weighting
119
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
119

The United States Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc