The main concern for the US petrochemical industry is the extent to which the eurozone crisis continues to affect the country's economy. BMI believes US producers will be able to leverage their competitive advantages, both in terms of access to a growing manufacturing sector and their integration with low-cost ethane feedstock that is lacking in Europe.
In H113, US ethylene results improved on those seen in H212 and maintained output above an average of over 24mn tonnes per annum (tpa). Capacity seen in Q213 was lower than that seen in Q113 due to a heavy turnaround schedule, which brought 8% of national capacity offline; however, producers were able to maintain overall supply, due largely by preparing for any anticipated shortfall during turnarounds. This also helped stabilise prices, as well as ensuring adequate supply to downstream PE production.
BMI believes that ethylene capacity utilisation should average 87% in H213, with output returning to Q113 norms, which would represent the highest level of output since 2007. Demand for ethane is set to soar in H213 as intensive cracker turnarounds come to an end and North American producers expand their ethane processing capability. This could both raise feedstock prices and potentially create a glut in ethylene supply, squeezing margins. Gas prices will need to remain low compared to oil and demand remains adequate to absorb increased supply. During 2013, US ethylene producers are scheduled to complete four incremental expansions and restart one production train, which should increase production capacity by at least 800,000tpa.
The American Chemistry Council (ACC) reported that its Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) three-month moving average index registered growth of 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 0.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) in August 2013, following a clear upward trend since mid-2012.
In volume terms, US production of major plastic resins totalled 44.5bn pounds in the first seven months of 2013, representing a 1.5%...
The United States Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's United States Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the American petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.