Business Monitor International


United States Petrochemicals Report

Published 01 April 2014

  • 133 pages
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$1,295.00
United States Petrochemicals Report

The US petrochemicals industry continues to expand on the back of growth in ethane availability as a result of shale gas exploitation. However, BMI's latest US Petrochemicals Report warns that the global market may not be able to absorb the level of planned output growth, while the domestic market will quickly become saturated. These factors provide considerable downside in the long-term, with the potential for world-scale projects to be scaled back.

Harsh winter weather wreaked havoc on the logistical side of the petrochemical business, causing downside supply issues. While the north east and Midwest were the hardest hit, the Gulf Coast, where a significant portion of US petrochemicals are produced, was also hit with ice, sleet and freezing temperatures in January and February. The pace of output growth was adversely affected by unusual weather conditions, exacerbating the moderation reported since Q413. The American Chemistry Council's (ACC) monthly Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) was flat in February, ending nine consecutive monthly gains on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. The barometer was up 2.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), also representing a slowdown on a y-o-y basis.

The potential US chemical industry investment linked to plentiful and affordable natural gas and natural gas liquids from shale formations has topped US$100bn. A total of 148 projects, including new factories, expansions and process changes to increase capacity, could lead to US$81bn per year in new chemical industry output by 2023. More than half of the investment is by firms based outside the US. In a sign that investors are continuing to respond favourably to ethane expansion in the US, in January 2014 Formosa Plastics indicated it is considering building a plant using shale gas in Louisiana with capacity to produce 1.2mn tpa of ethylene. The investment outlay will depend on results of further studies to be conducted to evaluate the project.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2012-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: United States - Economic Activity
26
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
27
United States Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Market Overview
28
Table: Geographical Concentration Of Chemicals Production
29
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Cracker Developments
31
Table: US Petrochemical Expansions Based On Shale Gas
31
Polymers And Intermediates
34
Methanol
35
PIC-Dow Merger Resolution
36
Regulatory Development
37
Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking)
38
Competitive Landscape
40
Upstream
40
Olefins
41
Table: Olefins Production Capacity ('000tpa)
41
Aromatics
44
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity ('000tpa)
45
Mixed Xylenes
46
Table: Xylenes Capacity ('000tpa)
46
Polyethylene (PE)
47
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications
47
Table: PE Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
49
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)
49
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE)
50
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)
51
Polypropylene (PP)
52
Table: US PP Capacity ('000tpa)
54
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)
54
Table: PVC Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
54
Polystyrene (PS)
55
Table: PS Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
56
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)
57
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector - PET Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
58
Company Profile
60
BP
60
Table: BP - Financial Results (US$mn)
62
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company
63
Dow Chemical
66
Table: Dow Financial Results (US$mn)
68
ExxonMobil
69
Table: Exxon Mobil - Global Financial Results (US$mn)
71
Huntsman
72
Table: Huntsman - Financial Results (US$mn)
73
Ineos
75
LyondellBasell
77
Table: LyondellBasell Financial Results (US$mn)
78
Shell Chemicals
79
Table: Royal Dutch Shell Financial Results (US$mn)
80
Westlake Chemical
81
Table: Westlake Chemical - Financial Results (US$mn)
82
Regional Overview
83
Americas Overview
83
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
85
Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand
87
Naptha Worries
89
Global Industry Overview
91
A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014-
91
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
93
Long-Term Growth
93
Shale: The Future Of Feedstock-
95
Threats To growth
98
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
98
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
98
Methodology
101
Crude Price Forecasts
102
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
102
Oil Product Price Forecasts
102
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
103
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
104
Weak Demand Persists
105
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
106
Quarterly Prices
110
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
110
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
111
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
113
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
119
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
121
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
121
Risks To Outlook
123
Demographic Forecast
124
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
125
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
126
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
127
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
127
Glossary
128
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
128
Methodology
129
Industry Forecast Methodology
129
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
131
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
132
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
133

The United States Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc