Business Monitor International


United States Petrochemicals Report

Published 30 July 2014

  • 133 pages
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$1,295.00
United States Petrochemicals Report

BMI View:   The US petrochemicals industry continues to expand on the back of growth in ethane availability as a result of shale gas exploitation. However, BMI 's latest US Petrochemicals Report warns that the global market may not be able to absorb the level of planned output growth while the domestic market will quickly become saturated. These factors provide considerable downside in the long-term, with the potential for world-scale projects to be scaled back.

According to the American Chemistry Council (ACC), following a 0.2% gain in March, the US Chemical Production Regional Index (US CPRI) was up 0.6% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2014. However, manufacturing production unexpectedly slipped during April, however, on a three-month moving average (3MMA), output of the nation's overall manufacturing sector was 0.6 percent higher in April, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in March. Comparing the first four months of 2014 to that in 2013, chemical production was up 1.1% y-o-y nationally, with six of the seven regions posting gains.

Measured on a 3MMA basis, overall chemical production was mixed with gains in the output of chlor-alkali and other inorganic chemicals, synthetic dyes and pigments, industrial gases, consumer products, adhesives, organic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and coatings. These gains were partially offset by declines in the production of plastic resins, pesticides, fertilizers, and manmade fibres. Synthetic rubber production was flat for a second straight month.

  • In line with our long held view that the residential construction sector would drive the recovery in the US construction industry, we believe 2014 will see another positive year for growth in the sector, thereby supporting construction-related chemicals such as PVC. Real industry value is expected to expand by 1.8%, driven primarily by a 2.0% expansion in residential and non-residential building, an upward revision from 1.6% in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2012-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Table: United States - Gdp By Expenditure
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
United States Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Market Overview
26
Table: Geographical Concentration Of Chemicals Production
27
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Cracker Developments
29
Table: US Petrochemical Expansions Based On Shale Gas
29
Polymers And Intermediates
32
Methanol
34
Regulatory Development
36
Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking)
37
Competitive Landscape
41
Upstream
41
Olefins
42
Table: Olefins Production Capacity ('000tpa)
42
Aromatics
45
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity ('000tpa)
46
Mixed Xylenes
47
Table: Xylenes Capacity ('000tpa)
47
Polyethylene (PE)
48
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications
48
Table: PE Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
49
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)
50
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE)
50
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)
51
Polypropylene (PP)
52
Table: US PP Capacity ('000tpa)
54
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)
54
Table: PVC Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
54
Polystyrene (PS)
55
Table: PS Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
56
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)
57
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector - PET Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
58
Company Profile
60
BP
60
Table: BP - Financial Results (USDmn)
62
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company
64
Dow Chemical
67
Table: Dow Financial Results, 2010-2013 (USDmn)
69
ExxonMobil
70
Table: Exxon Mobil - Global Financial Results (USDmn)
72
Huntsman
73
Table: Huntsman - Financial Results (USDmn)
74
Ineos
76
LyondellBasell
78
Table: LyondellBasell Financial Results (US$mn)
79
Shell Chemicals
80
Table: Royal Dutch Shell Financial Results (USDmn)
81
Westlake Chemical
82
Table: Westlake Chemical - Financial Results, 2010-2013 (USDmn)
83
Regional Overview
84
Americas Overview
84
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
86
Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand
88
Global Industry Overview
92
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
95
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
96
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
97
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
98
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
98
Gasoline
100
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
100
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
101
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
102
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
105
Risks To Outlook
108
Diesel
108
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
109
New York's One-Off Heat Up
109
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
112
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
116
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
118
Risks To Outlook
122
Jet Fuel
123
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
123
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
123
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
125
Risks To Outlook
128
Bunker Fuel
129
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
129
The Storm Clears For Shipping
130
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
132
Long-Term Threats Linger
133
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
135
Risks To Outlook
136
Demographic Forecast
137
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
138
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
139
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
140
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
140
Glossary
141
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
141
Methodology
142
Industry Forecast Methodology
142
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
144
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
145
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
146

The United States Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc