Business Monitor International


United States Oil & Gas Report

Published 30 June 2014

  • 195 pages
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$1,295.00
United States Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Robust unconventional and offshore production is set to buoy US crude oil growth substantially . The robust production story has also fed through to the US' downstream sector. Indeed, while we do not foresee the US ending its crude oil imports in the coming years, with rising liquids production and a ban on crude exports, this will encourage greater refined product output - especially diesel and liquefied petroleum gases. W e are somewhat less sanguine on the country's gas production, at least in the short term, forecasting a more moderate growth trend. Indeed, while the severe weather in the first months of 2014 ha s seen Henry Hub prices rally, we believe the fundamental short-term nature of this move may not be sufficient to draw in a substantial uptick in capex. However, although for now we believe that E&P companies will prefer to channel capital expenditures toward liquids rich play s, by 2016/17 increased LNG export capacity and a growing petrochemical industry will begin to put more constant upward pressure on gas prices, reviving production growth.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the US oil and gas sector are:

  • According to our forecasts, the boom in US unconventional production is set to combine with higher output from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) to boost liquids production from 11.2mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to 12.0mn b/d in 2014. We expect the strong liquids production growth will continue over the coming years, such that by 2018, we anticipate that total liquids output will have hit 13.5mn b/d. While gains will continue over the course of our forecast period, we expect the growth rate may slow somewhat toward the latter part of our forecast period, such that we anticipate output of 14.4mn b/d in 2023.

  • Consumption patterns in the US have gone through a structural shift over the past four years towards much greater fuel economy and efficiency. Indeed, we expect that demand for motor gasoline, comprising...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: US Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: US Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: US Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: US Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Gas Supply And Demand
31
Table: US Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
31
Table: US Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
32
Table: Non-FTA Projects Approved By the DOE
39
Refining And Oil Products Trade
41
Table: US Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
41
Table: US Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
42
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
56
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
56
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
57
Upstream: US Catches Up To Canada
57
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
57
Western Europe Upstream Languishes Without Shale Outlook
60
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
62
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
62
Unites States - Risk/Reward Ratings
66
Market Overview
68
United States Energy Market Overview
68
Licensing And Regulation
68
Government Policy
71
Licensing Rounds
76
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017
76
Table: 2012-2017 Lease Sale Schedule
77
International Energy Relations
79
Table: Key Upstream Players
80
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
85
Oil Refineries
85
Table: New US Refineries
86
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions
89
Table: Refineries In the US
90
Service Stations
96
Oil Storage Facilities
96
Oil Terminals/Ports
96
Oil Pipelines
97
Table: Crude Oil Pipelines Recently Online/Planned For The US, 2012-2014
98
LNG Terminals
101
Table: LNG Terminals In the US
101
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects
106
Gas Storage Facilities
107
Gas Pipelines
107
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines Planned
109
Competitive Landscape
113
Competitive Landscape Summary
113
Table: Key Upstream Players
115
Table: Key Downstream Players
115
Company Profile
116
ExxonMobil
116
Chevron
123
BP America
131
ConocoPhillips
137
Anadarko
143
Shell USA
148
Other Summaries
154
Regional Overview
168
North America & Western Europe Overview
168
North America
169
Europe
173
Muted Consumption Growth
177
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
178
Global Industry Overview
180
Global Energy Market Overview
180
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
182
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
183
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
184
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
186
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
186
Appendix
189
North America Regional Appendix
189
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
189
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
189
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
190
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
190
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
190
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
191
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
191
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
191
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
192
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
192
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
192
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
193
United States - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
194
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
194
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
195
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
196
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
197
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
198
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
200
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
200
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
201
Glossary
202
Table: Glossary Of Terms
202
Methodology
204
Industry Forecast Methodology
204
Source
206
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
206
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
208
Table: Weighting
209

The United States Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for United States including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United States to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc