Business Monitor International


United States Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 March 2014

  • 195 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Robust unconventional and offshore production is set to buoy US crude oil growth, such that in the coming year we see the country as set to overtake Saudi Arabia to become the largest liquids producer in the world. The robust production story has also fed through to the US' downstream sector. Indeed, while we do not foresee the US ending its crude oil imports in the coming years, with rising liquids production and a ban on crude exports, this will encourage greater refined product output - especially diesel and liquefied petroleum gases. W e are somewhat less sanguine on the country's gas production, at least in the short term, forecasting a more moderate growth trend. Indeed, while the severe weather in the first months of 2014 ha s seen Henry Hub prices rally, we believe the fundamental short-term nature of this move may not be sufficient to draw in a substantial uptick in capex. However, although for now we believe that E&P companies will prefer to channel capital expenditures toward liquids rich play s, by 2016/17 increased LNG export capacity and a rising petrochemical industry will begin to put more constant upward pressure on gas prices, reviving production growth.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the US oil and gas sector are:

  • According to our forecasts, the boom in US unconventional production is set to combine with higher output from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) to boost liquids production from an estimated 11.1mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2013 to 11.6mn b/d in 2014. We expect the strong liquids production growth will continue over the medium term, such that by 2018, we anticipate that total liquids output will have hit 13.0mn b/d, and 13.8mn b/d in 2023.

  • Consumption patterns in the US have gone through a structural shift over the past four years towards much greater fuel economy and efficiency. Indeed, we expect that demand for motor gasoline, comprising the largest proportion of US fuels consumed, will continue to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: US Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: US Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: US Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: US Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Gas Supply And Demand
33
Table: US Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
33
Table: US Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
34
Table: BMI Henry Hub Price Forecasts
36
Refining And Oil Products Trade
42
Table: US Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
42
Table: US Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
43
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
46
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
49
Downstream: US Comes Out Tops
51
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Table: North America & Western Europe States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
57
Unites States - Risk/Reward Ratings
58
Market Overview
60
United States Energy Market Overview
60
Licensing And Regulation
60
Government Policy
63
Licensing Rounds
68
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017
68
International Energy Relations
70
Table: Key Upstream Players
71
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
76
Oil Refineries
76
Table: New US Refineries
78
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions
81
Table: Refineries In the US
82
Service Stations
87
Oil Storage Facilities
88
Oil Terminals/Ports
88
Oil Pipelines
89
Table: Crude Oil Pipelines Planned For The US, 2012-2014
93
LNG Terminals
93
Table: LNG Terminals In the US
93
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects
98
Gas Storage Facilities
100
Gas Pipelines
100
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines Planned
102
Competitive Landscape
106
Competitive Landscape Summary
106
Table: Key Upstream Players
108
Table: Key Downstream Players
108
Company Profile
109
ExxonMobil
109
Chevron
114
BP America
121
ConocoPhillips
128
Anadarko
133
Shell USA
136
Other Summaries
142
Regional Overview
155
North America & Western Europe Overview
155
North America
156
Table: Canadian LNG Export Terminal Project Applications
161
Europe
162
Muted Consumption Growth
167
The Difficulty In Moving Exports Along
169
Refining Capacity: A Tale Of Two Continents
170
Global Industry Overview
172
Appendix
179
North America Regional Appendix
179
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
179
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
179
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
180
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
180
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
180
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
181
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
181
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
181
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
182
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
182
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
182
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
183
United States - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
184
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
184
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
185
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
186
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
187
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
189
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
190
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
190
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
191
Glossary
192
Table: Glossary Of Terms
192
Methodology
194
Industry Forecast Methodology
194
Source
196
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
196
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
198
Table: Weighting
200

The United States Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for United States including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United States to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc