Business Monitor International


United States Mining Report

Published 06 May 2014

  • 93 pages
 
$1,295.00
United States Mining Report

BMI View: We forecast stable though modest growth in the US mining industry through 2018 , as we expect the bulk of mineral output and mining investment in the Americas region to occur in developing markets in Latin America. Still, we forecast the value of the industry to reach US D136bn in 2018, which we note is a substantial upgrade due to new government data. The country's stable economic and political environment, coupled with its long history of mining and mineral wealth, should enable sector expansion.

We forecast the US mining sector will see modest average annual growth of 1.5% through 2018, as both lower copper and gold prices, and only nominal growth in other base metal prices, lead to slow output growth. However, our forecast for a broader US economic recovery, including expansion in the automotive and broader manufacturing sectors, should ensure the overall mining and metals sector remains supported. While we expect copper mining operations to remain profitable, we note that gold producers, in particular, are coming under increasing pressure both from falling prices and rising costs. Thus, we expect capital expenditure to remain subdued over the coming quarters and expect consolidation among some junior miners. Weak market fundamentals for zinc and lead will keep price gains modest in the coming years and we do not expect domestic mining companies in the US to invest much in developing these resources.

Significant Size But Modest Growth
US - Mining Industry Value & Growth

Permitting Process Mars Business Environment

Despite subdued metal price fundamentals, we expect the US to attract mining investment owing to its vast natural resources, well-developed mining industry and infrastructure, and stable political environment. The US's mature capital markets also allow junior firms to find financing opportunities, though credit remains tight. We expect US growth to pick up through 2014, which should support end-use demand growth for metal...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Permitting Process Mars Business Environment
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Coal: Domestic Troubles Ahead
12
Sector To Remain Consolidated
13
Table: United States - Main Coal Projects
14
Export Demand Unlikely To Reverse Long-Term Decline
14
Rising Gas Prices Provide Only Shorter-Term Upside
16
Table: United States - Coal Production
18
Copper: Production To Slow
18
Miners To Continue Exploration And Development
19
Table: United States - Copper Mine Projects
19
Environmental Considerations Pose Greatest Challenge To Industry
20
Table: United States - Copper Production
21
Gold: Tepid Production Growth, But Investment To Continue
21
Despite Company Woes, Barrick To Remain Top US Producer
22
Table: Major Gold Projects In The United States
24
Operational Risks To Remain
24
Table: United States - Gold Production
24
Lead: US To Lose Global Market Share
25
Table: United States - Lead Production
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Colombia & Chile Remain At The Top
29
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Mexico & Peru See Improvement, While Brazil Falls Back
30
Weak Prices & Poor Operating Environments Hold Others Back
31
Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Rewards
31
Industry Rewards
31
Country Rewards
32
Risks
32
Industry Risks
32
Country Risks
33
Table: US - Mine Production & Growth
33
Regulatory Development
34
Recent Developments
34
Beyond Impending Coal Rules, Few Changes In Sight
34
Table: Key US Mining Laws
35
Permitting Times Negatively Impact Greenfield Development
35
New Rules On Carbon Limits
35
Tax Regime
36
Corruption Minimal
36
Table: US Political Overview
37
Table: Regional Regulatory Table
37
Commodities Forecast
39
Commodity Strategy
39
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
39
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
41
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
42
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
43
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
44
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
45
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
47
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Competitive Landscape
50
Sector Consolidation To Continue
50
Table: Financial Data For Key US Mining Firms
50
Production Driven By Domestic Market Needs
51
Company Profile
52
Freeport-McMoRan
52
Company Strategy
54
Latest Financial Results
55
Financial Data
56
Table: Freeport-McMoRan - Key Financial Data
56
Address Details
56
Newmont Mining
57
Company Strategy
58
Recent Financial Data
59
Financial Data
60
Table: Newmont Mining - Key Financial Data
60
Address Details
60
Peabody Energy
61
Company Strategy
62
Recent Financial Data
63
Table: Peabody Energy: Key Financial Data
64
Address Details
64
Regional Overview
65
Americas Overview
65
1
65
2
66
Table: Americas - Regulatory Updates
67
3
68
4
69
5
72
Global Industry Overview
74
Challenges
74
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
78
Cause For Optimism
81
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sources
89
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
92

The United States Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in United States's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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