Business Monitor International


United States Mining Report

Published 07 February 2014

  • 93 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Mining Report

BMI View: We forecast the US mining industry will see modest growth over our forecast period, as we expect the bulk of mineral output and mining investment to occur in developing markets in Latin America. Still, we forecast the value of the industry to reach US$67.9bn in 2018, representing an average growth rate of 2.0% per annum. The country's stable economic and political environment, coupled with its long history of mining and mineral wealth, should enable sector expansion.

We forecast modest growth in the US mining sector through 2018, as lower copper and gold prices and only nominal growth in other base metal prices fails to incentivize significant production growth. Stronger US economic growth, including investment in automotive and manufacturing, should ensure the overall sector sees at least modest expansion. While we expect copper mining operations to remain profitable, we note that gold producers, in particular, are coming under increasing pressure both from falling prices and rising costs. Thus, we expect capital expenditure to remain subdued over the coming quarters and expect consolidation among some junior miners. Weak market fundamentals for zinc and lead will keep price gains modest in the coming years and we do not expect domestic mining companies in the US to invest much in developing these resources.

US Will Still Remain World Leader
US - Mineral Production, 2012

Long Wait Times Mar Otherwise Solid Business Environment

Even with weaker market fundamentals, we expect the US to attract mining investment due to its vast natural resources, well-developed industry and infrastructure, and stable political environment. The US's mature capital markets also allow junior firms to find financing opportunities, though credit remains tight. We expect US growth to pick up in the coming quarters, which should support end-use demand growth for metal products, although as we noted before developed world economic growth has become less metal-intensive over...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Long Wait Times Mar Otherwise Solid Business Environment
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Coal: Domestic Troubles Ahead
12
Table: United States - Main Coal Projects
14
Export Strength Unlikely To Bring Industry Turnaround
14
Despite Rising Gas Prices, Coal Unlikely To Benefit
16
Further Negative Regulations Likely In 2014
17
Table: United States - Coal Production
18
Copper: Production To Slow
18
Interest In Copper To Persist
19
Table: United States - Copper Mine Projects
20
Environmental Considerations Often Major Impediment
20
Table: United States - Copper Production
21
Gold: Tepid Production Growth, But Investment To Continue
21
Barrick To Maintain Production Edge
22
Table: Major Gold Projects In The United States
24
Exploration & Capex At Risk
24
Table: United States - Gold Production
24
Lead: US To Lose Global Market Share
25
Table: United States - Lead Production
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Developed Markets Show Low Risk, But Low Reward
28
Majors Facing Combination Of Tax Changes & Social Opposition
29
Second-Tier Miners To Show Little Rankings Improvement
30
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Market Overview
32
Regulatory Constraints To Limit Growth
33
Gold Still Shines, But Becoming Tarnished
34
Table: US - Select Mining Projects
35
Coal Exports Help, But Will Not Reverse Sector Fortunes
35
Zinc & Lead To Maintain Secondary Status
36
Table: United States: Mining Industry Value & Production
36
Regulatory Development
37
Recent Developments
37
Regulatory Environment Slow To Change
37
Table: Key US Mining Laws
38
Long Permitting Times To Affect Greenfield Development
38
Second Quarter To Bring New Proposal On Carbon Limits
38
Tax Regime
38
Corruption Minimal
39
Table: US Political Overview
40
Table: Regional Regulatory Table
41
Commodities Forecast
42
Commodity Strategy
42
Aluminium: Continued Short-Term Weakness
45
Copper: Recent Strength Doesn't Change Our View
45
Nickel: Recent Strength To Subside
47
Zinc: Price Momentum To Continue
49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Sector To Remain Consolidated
52
Table: Financial Data For Key US Mining Firms
53
Domestic Focus
53
Company Profile
55
Freeport-McMoRan
55
Company Strategy
57
Latest Financial Results
58
Financial Data
59
Table: Freeport-McMoRan - Key Financial Data
59
Address Details
59
Newmont Mining
60
Company Strategy
61
Latest Financial Results
62
Financial Data
63
Table: Newmont Mining - Key Financial Data
63
Address Details
63
Peabody Energy
64
Company Strategy
65
Recent Financial Data
66
Table: Peabody Energy: Key Financial Data
67
Address Details
67
Regional Overview
68
Americas Overview
68
1
68
Table: Americas - Regulatory Updates
69
2
69
3
70
4
74
Global Industry Overview
76
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sources
89
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
90
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
92
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
93

The United States Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in United States's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc