BMI View: The US mining industry will be among the largest in the world as measured in total output in the years ahead, but will see just modest growth to 2019. Total industry value will reach USD136bn in 2019 as the country's stable economic and political environment, coupled with its long history of mining and its significant mineral reserves, enable sector expansion.
We forecast the US mining sector will see modest average annual growth, reflecting a broader trend among developed mining markets. For the period of 2015-2019, we forecast average annual growth of 1.5%. Ultimately, the majority of growth in both mineral output and mining investment in the Americas region will occur in developing markets in Latin America. Still, accelerating US economic growth, including expansion in the automotive and broader manufacturing sectors, should ensure the overall mining and metals sector remains supported.
| Slow Growth Reflects Developed Market Trends |
|US - Mining Industry Value & Growth|
For 2015, we forecast average prices for both gold and copper will decline compared to 2014 levels. While we expect copper mining operations will remain profitable, we note that gold producers, in particular, are coming under increasing pressure both from falling prices and rising costs. Thus, we expect capital expenditure to remain subdued over the coming quarters and expect consolidation among some junior miners.
Long Permitting Times Mar Overall Solid Business Environment
The US will continue to attract mining investment owing to its vast natural resources, well-developed mining industry and infrastructure, and stable political environment. Furthermore, the country's mature capital markets also allow junior firms to find financing opportunities, though credit remains more constrained following the global financial crisis.
| US To Remain Prime Destination |
|United States - Inward FDI Position, Mining (USDbn)|
We expect US real GDP growth to accelerate in 2015, and indeed recently revised...
The United States Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's United States Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in United States.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in United States's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.