Business Monitor International


United States Freight Transport Report

Published 03 April 2014

  • 132 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its positive outlook for the US freight transport sector. Our view for gradual strengthening in the US economy through end 2014 continues to play out, driven by a tightening labour market and sustained growth in the cyclical components of the economy, notably the residential housing sector and business investment in equipment. Data have been particularly strong in recent months, and we acknowledge that risks are weighted to the upside. On the back of this BMI maintains its cautiously positive outlook on the US freight sector.

Our view for a narrowing US current account as a percentage of GDP deficit continues to play out, largely on the back of falling energy prices and higher domestic production. We believe that a falling reliance on energy imports and an uptick in global demand for US goods and services will support a further narrowing in the current account deficit, from our estimate of 2.6% of GDP in 2013 to 2.2% by 2017. We believe export growth will generally outpace import growth over the medium term, and expect broad stability in the financial account. That said, we highlight the risk of stronger-than-expected US private consumption in 2014, which could boost imports more than we expect.

A steady improvement in consumer confidence during 2013 also reinforces our view that private consumption will accelerate in 2014. As confidence improves, we expect consumers to be relatively more willing to spend on big-ticket items and shift relatively more income away from savings and toward spending, boosting demand for freight transport services.

Key Industry Data

  • At the Port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast a contraction of 3.9% in total tonnage in 2014, to reach 65.5mn tonnes.

  • At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 3.1% in 2014, to reach 139.0mn tonnes.

  • We predict growth of 3% in air freight volumes, to reach 21.2bn tonnes-km in 2014.

  • We predict growth of 3% in rail freight tonnes, to reach 2.01bn...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Rail Freight
15
Table: Rail Freight
18
Road Freight
18
Table: Road Freight
19
Air Freight
19
Table: Air Freight
21
Inland Waterways
21
Table: Inland Waterway Freight
21
Maritime Freight
21
Table: Major Port Data, 2010-2018
23
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2018
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators
25
Table: Main Import Partners, US$
27
Table: Main Export Partners
27
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Company Profile
47
CSX
47
Norfolk Southern Corporation (Norfolk Southern)
52
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway
58
UPS
63
YRC Worldwide
68
Delta Cargo
73
Horizon Lines
77
Political Outlook
82
Foreign Policy
82
Domestic Politics
85
Table: US - Federal Government & Political Data
90
Long-term Politics
91
Oil Price Outlook
96
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
96
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
96
Methodology
98
Crude Price Forecasts
99
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
99
Oil Product Price Forecasts
99
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
100
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
101
Weak Demand Persists
102
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
103
Quarterly Prices
107
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
107
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
108
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
110
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
116
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
118
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
118
Risks To Outlook
120
Macroeconomic Forecasts
121
Economic Analysis
121
Table: United States - Economic Activity
129
Demographic Forecast
130
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
131
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
132
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
133
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
133
Methodology
134
Industry Forecast Methodology
134
Sector-Specific Methodology
135
Sources
136

The United States Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United States Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc