Business Monitor International


United States Freight Transport Report

Published 03 April 2014

  • 132 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its positive outlook for the US freight transport sector. Despite a fairly weak start to the year across a range of macroeconomic indicators, we maintain our forecast for US real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2014 from 1.9% in 2013. Our view for gradual strengthening in the US economy through end 2014 continues to play out, driven by a tightening labour market and sustained growth in the cyclical components of the economy, notably the residential housing sector and business investment in equipment. On the back of this BMI maintains its cautiously positive outlook on the US freight sector.

In 2014, we anticipate that stronger economic activity in developed markets, particularly in Europe and Canada, will increase demand for US goods and service exports, which we forecast will post real growth of 3.6% this year after 2.5% in 2013.

A steady improvement in consumer confidence reinforces our view that private consumption will accelerate in 2014. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index hit 82.3 in March 2014, the highest level since January 2008, while the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 80.0, fairly elevated compared to recent years and consistent with strong PCE growth in the months ahead. As confidence improves, we expect consumers to be relatively more willing to spend on big-ticket items and shift relatively more income away from savings and toward spending, boosting demand for freight transport services.

Key Industry Data

  • At the Port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast growth of 2% in total tonnage in 2014, to reach 64.1mn tonnes.

  • At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 3% in 2014, to reach 139.1mn tonnes. 

  • We predict growth of 3.5% in air freight volumes, to reach 21.2bn tonnes-km in 2014.

  • We predict growth of 2.4% in rail freight tonnes, to reach 2.70bn tonnes in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

BNSF To Invest USD1bn In Rail Expansion Project

Freight...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Rail Freight
15
Table: Rail Freight
18
Road Freight
18
Table: Road Freight
20
Air Freight
20
Table: Air Freight
22
Inland Waterways
22
Table: Inland Waterway Freight
22
Maritime Freight
22
Table: Maritime Freight
24
Trade
25
Table: Trade Overview
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators
25
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
26
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
27
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Rail Freight
32
Air Freight
35
Road Freight
36
Maritime Freight
37
Company Profile
42
CSX
42
Norfolk Southern Corporation (Norfolk Southern)
47
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway
52
UPS
57
YRC Worldwide
62
Delta Cargo
66
Horizon Lines
70
Regional Overview
74
Political Outlook
74
Domestic Politics
74
Table: United States: Domestic Politics Table
77
Foreign Policy
78
Long-Term Political Outlook
81
Global Industry Overview
86
Global Oil Product Price Outlook
86
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
86
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
87
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
89
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
92
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
94
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
94
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
95
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
95
Macroeconomic Forecasts
98
GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
99
Risks To Outlook
105
Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure
106
Demographic Forecast
107
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
108
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
109
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
110
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
110
Methodology
111
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
111
Transport Industry
112
Sources
112

The United States Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United States Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc