Business Monitor International


United States Freight Transport Report

Published 16 October 2014

  • 132 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its positive outlook for the US freight transport sector. Despite a fairly weak start to the year across a range of macroeconomic indicators, we maintain our forecast for US real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2014 from 1.9% in 2013. Our view for gradual strengthening in the US economy through to the end 2014 continues to play out, driven by a tightening labour market and sustained growth in the cyclical components of the economy, notably the residential housing sector and business investment in equipment. On the back of this BMI maintains its cautiously positive outlook on the US freight sector.

A steady improvement in consumer confidence reinforces our view that private consumption will accelerate in 2014. Consumer confidence levels are at post-financial crisis highs, and the employment-to-population ratio hit 59.0% in June 2014, the highest reading since August 2009. We expect these trends to persist in the months ahead, as jobless claims have been low, and business confidence levels are also relatively high, suggesting that hiring will continue apace, further bolstering confidence and supporting consumer spending. As confidence improves, we expect consumers to be relatively more willing to spend on big-ticket items and shift relatively more income away from savings and toward spending, boosting demand for freight transport services.

In 2014, we anticipate that stronger economic activity in developed markets, particularly in Europe and Canada, will increase demand for US goods and service exports, which we forecast will post real growth of 3.6% this year after 2.5% in 2013.

Key Industry Data

  • At the Port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast growth of 2% in total tonnage in 2014, to reach 64.1mn tonnes.

  • At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 3% in 2014, to reach 139.1mn tonnes. 

  • We predict growth of 3.5% in air freight volumes, to reach 38.4bn tonnes-km in 2014.

  • We predict growth of 2.4% in rail...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Rail Freight
15
Table: Rail Freight (United States 2011-2018)
17
Road Freight
18
Table: Road Freight (United States 2011-2018)
19
Air Freight
19
Table: Air Freight (United States 2011-2018)
21
Inland Waterways
21
Table: Inland Waterway Freight (United States 2011-2018)
22
Maritime Freight
22
Table: Major Ports Data, (United States 2010-2018)
24
Trade
25
Table: Trade Overview (United States 2011-2018)
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators (United States 2011-2018)
26
Table: Main Import Partners, USD
28
Table: Main Export Partners
29
Market Overview
30
Industry Trends And Developments
34
Company Profile
46
CSX
46
Norfolk Southern Corporation (Norfolk Southern)
51
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway
57
UPS
63
YRC Worldwide
69
Delta Cargo
74
Horizon Lines
79
Political Outlook
84
Domestic Politics
84
Foreign Policy
86
Long-Term Political Outlook
91
Oil Price Outlook
96
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
96
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
96
Supply Keeps Market Down
96
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
98
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
99
Risks To Outlook
102
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
103
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
103
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
108
Risks To Outlook
109
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
110
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
110
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
112
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
116
Risks To Outlook
117
Macroeconomic Forecasts
119
Economic Analysis
119
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
124
Demographic Forecast
126
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
127
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
128
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
129
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
129
Methodology
130
Industry Forecast Methodology
130
Sector-Specific Methodology
131
Sources
132

The United States Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United States Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc