Business Monitor International


United States Food & Drink Report

Published 15 October 2014

  • 124 pages
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$1,295.00
United States Food & Drink Report

The US economy will continue to strengthen in 2014, due to sustained improvement in the labour market that will fuel an acceleration in private consumption. We will continue to see positive - although slowing - fixed investment growth this year, and we believe the drag on growth from government expenditure will lessen compared to last year. However, we have revised down our 2014 growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.1% due to a particularly weak Q114. Indeed, real GDP contracted at a seasonally-adjusted, annualised rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of the year, the largest contraction during a period of economic growth in decades. That said, the downward revision is attributable to base effects from Q1 and does not suggest the start of a major slowdown. We believe many of the contributing factors have already begun to recede, suggesting a much stronger second quarter.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

  • 2014 per capita food consumption = +2.0%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018 = +4.1%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.7%; CAGR to 2018 = +3.5%.

  • 2014 soft drink value sales = +3.1%; CAGR to 2018 = +1.9%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +2.9%; CAGR to 2018 = +2.5%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Premium Paid For Russell Stover Exaggerated

We believe Lindt's acquisition of Russell Stover will increase the company's exposure to North America. The acquisition is motivated by strong potential for growth for premium chocolate in the US. In this context, the premium paid for Russell Stover is exaggerated given the smaller growth potential for box chocolates, low synergies and limited room for cross selling.

Bourbon To Outperform Scotch In 2014 Export Growth

We outlined the view in April 2014 that the export growth prospects for bourbon whiskey - the dominant whiskey category in the US - would be stronger than scotch (from Scotland) in 2014 (see 'Bourbon Exports To Outperform Scotch In 2014', April 11 2014). A key driver of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2011-2018)
18
Confectionery
18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2011-2018)
20
Canned Food
21
Dairy
21
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
21
Drink
23
Alcoholic Drinks
23
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
26
Soft Drinks
27
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
28
Hot Drinks
29
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
29
Mass Grocery Retail
30
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
31
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
32
Trade
33
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
34
Macroeconomic Forecast
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
40
Market Overview
42
Food
42
Food Consumption
42
Confectionery
42
Canned Food
43
Agriculture
44
Drink
44
Alcoholic Drinks
44
Soft Drinks
46
Hot Drinks
47
Mass Grocery Retail
48
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (United States 2005-2014)
49
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) (United States 2005-2014)
50
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (loccurbn) (United States 2005-2014)
50
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Food
51
Key Industry Trends And Developments
51
Drink
58
Key Industry Trends And Developments
58
Mass Grocery Retail
66
Key Industry Trends And Developments
66
Competitive Landscape
73
Table: Key Players - Food
73
Table: Key Players - Drink
73
Table: Key Players - Mass Grocery Retail
74
Company Profile
75
Mondelez International
75
Kellogg Company
79
Tyson Foods
82
Table: Tyson Foods Financial Data
93
General Mills
93
Table: General Mills' Financial Highlights
100
The Hershey Company
101
The Coca Cola Company
104
Table: The Coca-Cola Company Financial Results
110
Pepsico
111
Table: Revenue Growth & Operating Margin By Segment
113
Table: Selected Companies: Selected Financial Metrics
118
AB Inbev
120
Table: AB InBev Selected Financials and Ratios
125
Table: AB InBev Selected Historical Financial Data
127
Walmart
128
Table: Walmart Financial Highlights
133
Global Industry Overview
134
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
140
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
142
Demographic Forecast
143
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
144
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
145
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
146
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
146
Glossary
147
Food & Drink
147
Mass Grocery Retail
147
Methodology
149
Industry Forecast Methodology
149
Sector-Specific Methodology
150
Sources
150
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
151
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
152
Table: Weighting
153

The United States Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in United States through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc