Business Monitor International


United States Defence & Security Report

Published 10 April 2014

  • 93 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Defence & Security Report

BMI's United States defence and security report examines the posture of the US armed forces, political decision-making on defence issues, the country's military industries, and the US defence community in general.

Although United States defence spending will remain under severe pressure from US Congress, we do not expect spending growth to contract significantly over our forecast period to 2018. More than 13 years of uninterrupted conflict in Afghanistan, along with prolonged military operations in Iraq and shorter expeditionary campaigns in Libya, as well as other worldwide US military obligations, have resulted in high levels of defence spending overseen by the Pentagon. In addition, these spending increases have occurred during a period of unprecedented financial pressure in the United States, which has resulted in a severe contraction of consumer spending triggered by the financial crisis and the corresponding need for the government to reduce its spending levels.

At the strategic level, the apparent thaw in relations between Iran and the international community took an important step forward in Q413 with the international body of nations, which includes the European Union, US, China and Russia, concluding a deal with Iran that will allow for inspections of its nuclear facilities in exchange for a suspension of the enrichment of uranium in the country. The deal will also allow for a monitoring of several of Iran's nuclear facilities. In exchange, Iran will see a number of sanctions lifted. Several Gulf Arab states as well as Israel expressed their opposition to the deal amid fears that the agreement does not go far enough in slowing the programme, stating that the only acceptable deal can be a verifiable complete end to Iran's nuclear programme.

Furthermore, rather than pursue military options in the face of widespread opposition in the US Congress and within the US population writ large, the Obama administration took the decision to support a Russian proposal...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
United States Defence SWOT
9
United States Security SWOT
10
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Macroeconomic Forecasts
14
Macroeconomic Forecast
14
GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
15
Risks To Outlook
21
Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure
22
Industry Forecast
23
Armed Forces
23
Table: Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
23
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
24
Defence Expenditure
24
Table: Defence Expenditure
25
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn)
26
Defence Trade
27
Table: Defence Exports (US$mn)
28
Table: Defence Imports (US$mn)
28
Table: Defence Trade Balance (US$mn)
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Security Risk Analysis
30
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best)
30
Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index (scores out of 100, with 100 the best)
31
Market Overview
32
United States Market Overview
32
Armed Forces and Government Spending
32
Table: Foreign Deployments
45
Industry Trends and Developments
47
Arms Trade Overview
50
Industry Trends And Developments
55
Political Outlook
55
Table: United States: Domestic Politics Table
57
Security Overview
65
External Security
65
Internal Security
73
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups - US-Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs)
77
Company Profile
80
Boeing
80
L-3 Communications
83
Lockheed Martin
85
Northrop Grumman
88
Raytheon
91
Global Industry Overview
93
Global Political Outlook
93
Eurozone
93
Iran War Risks Rising In 2013
94
Syrian Conflict To Continue, Post-Assad
95
Caucasus At Risk Of Armenia-Azerbaijan War
95
Korean Peninsula Facing Mixed Outlook
96
Asia's Maritime Island Disputes
96
Table: Election Timetable, 2013
97
Demographic Forecast
101
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
102
Table: Canada's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
103
Table: Canada's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
104
Table: Canada's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
104
Methodology
105
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
105
Defence Industry
106
Sources
106

The United States Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the American defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the American defence and security market.
  • Tar

    Coverage

    Global and Regional Political Outlooks

    A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

    SWOT Analysis

    Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

    Political Risk Assessment

    Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

    Security Risk Analysis

    BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

    Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

    The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

    BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

    Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

    Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

    Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

    Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

    Company Profiles

    Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc