Business Monitor International


United States Defence & Security Report

Published 01 October 2014

  • 93 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Defence & Security Report

As of late-August 2014 much speculation is focusing on whether the United States defence budget will be re-orientated to take account of the threat from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). ISIS is posing a major security risk to US allies in the Middle East, following its occupation of a considerable quantity of the northern regions of Iraq and Syria during the first six months of 2014. In mid-2014, the US commenced airstrikes against ISIS ground forces in northern Iraq. The airstrikes are thought to have been carried out in support of attempts by Kurdish Peshmerga guerrillas on the ground to roll back the occupation of Iraqi territory by ISIS.

The dramatic rise of ISIS, coupled with the ongoing crisis involving Russia and Ukraine and the serious security situation in Afghanistan, has bred speculation that US Congress will reverse anticipated defence spending cuts for 2015. The planned cuts are causing US defence manufacturers to redouble their efforts to secure defence exports, to make up for the shortfall regarding domestic orders. These efforts were particularly evident during the 2014 Farnborough Air Show in the United Kingdom which witnessed over 230 US exhibitors and a large number of high-level attendees who visited the event.

We have given the United States a security risk rating of 91 for Q414. Overall, the country has scored on average a security risk rating of 88 for the period January 2007 until Q414. We believe that the United States faces a low risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict. Similarly, we believe that the United States faces a low risk of experiencing a major terrorist attack, and also of experiencing significant criminal activity.

During Q314, US relations with China experienced renewed challenges when a US Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft was buzzed by a People's Liberation Army Air Force J-11B combat aircraft over the South China Sea. The interception was criticised as being dangerous by the Pentagon...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Defence
9
Security
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Defence Expenditure
14
Table: Defence Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
14
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (United States 2011-2018)
16
Armed Forces
16
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (United States 2001-2011)
18
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) (United States 2011-2018)
18
Defence Trade
19
Table: Defence Trade Balance (USDmn) (United States 2011-2018)
20
Table: Defence Imports (USDmn) (United States 2011-2018)
21
Table: Defence Exports (USDmn) (United States 2011-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecast
23
Table: United States - Gdp By Expenditure
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Developed States Security Risk Ratings
31
Table: Developed States Regional Security Ratings
31
Table: Developed States State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
32
United States - Security Risk Ratings
33
Market Overview
34
United States Defence Market Overview
34
Armed Forces & Government Spending
35
Table: Foreign Deployments
47
Industry Trends & Developments
48
Arms Trade Overview
54
United States Security Overview
57
Domestic Threats
57
Regional Threats
59
International Threats
59
Assessing US Geopolitical Credibility Post-Syria
66
Company Profile
71
Boeing
71
Table: Boeing - Key Financial Data
72
L-3 Communications
73
Table: L-3 Communications - Key Financial Data
74
Lockheed Martin
76
Table: Lockheed Martin - Key Financial Data
78
Northrop Grumman
79
Table: Northrop Grumman - Key Financial Data
80
Raytheon
81
Table: Raytheon - Key Financial Data
82
Global Industry Overview
83
Global Political Outlook
83
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Sector-Specific Methodology
90
Sources
91
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
91
Table: Indicators And Weighting
92

The United States Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the American defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the American defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc