Business Monitor International


United States Defence & Security Report

Published 14 November 2014

  • 93 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Defence & Security Report

BMI View: We believe that the United States defence budget will be re-orientated to take account of the threat from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This will in our view stimulate procurement plans as the country can now focus on obtaining arms and technologies that might have previously been decided against due to austerity. The main focus of these procurements   being the development of the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter program, which has been hit by another delay.

ISIS is posing a major security risk to US allies in the Middle East, following its occupation of a considerable quantity of the northern regions of Iraq and Syria during the first six months of 2014. In mid-2014, the US commenced airstrikes against ISIS ground forces in northern Iraq, code named Operation Inherent Resolve. As 2014 draws to a close there has been little word as to how effective this campaign has been and talks of further action have been considered. 

Although initially expected that US Congress would contract the defence budget in their time of austerity, the recent incidents with ISIS and the humanitarian work with the Ebola virus (along with the persistent problems in the Ukraine and Afghanistan) has meant that this is most likely to be revised. As previously mentioned the request of USD601bn for the defence budget in the fiscal year 2015 is the best indicator as this signals a growth that will continue over the forecasted period as it is expected to increase to our forecasted target. At the moment cost-saving measures have taken place but we expect that this will provide only minor inconveniences in terms of investments and procurement.

The incident between a Chinese J-11B combat aircraft and an American P-8A Poseidon in Q314 has caused further tensions between the two countries; on the other hand it is unlikely to cause any further action from either party. The aggressive manoeuvres allegedly performed by the People's Liberation Army Air Force...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
United States Security SWOT
9
United States Defence & Security SWOT
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Defence Expenditure
14
Table: Defence Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
14
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (United States 2011-2018)
15
Armed Forces
15
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (United States 2004-2011)
16
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (United States 2011-2018)
17
Defence Trade
17
Table: Defence Trade Balance (United States 2011-2018)
18
Table: Defence Imports (United States 2011-2018)
20
Table: Defence Exports (United States 2011-2018)
21
Macroeconomic Forecasts
22
Economic Analysis
22
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Developed States Security Risk Ratings
29
Table: Developed States Regional Security Ratings
29
Table: Developed States State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
30
United States Security Risk Ratings
31
Market Overview
32
United States Defence Market Overview
32
Armed Forces And Government Spending
33
Table: Foreign Deployments
46
Industry Trends & Developments
47
Arms Trade Overview
49
United States Security Overview
52
Domestic Threats
52
Regional Threats
54
International Threats
54
Company Profile
63
Boeing
63
Table: Boeing - Key Financial Data
64
L-3 Communications
65
Table: L-3 Communications - Key Financial Data
66
Lockheed Martin
68
Table: Lockheed Martin - Key Financial Data
70
Northrop Grumman
71
Table: Northrop Grumman - Key Financial Data
72
Raytheon
73
Table: Raytheon - Key Financial Data
74
Regional Overview
75
Latin America Security Overview
75
Global Industry Overview
92
Political Risk Analysis
92
Methodology
97
Industry Forecast Methodology
97
Sector-Specific Methodology
98
Sources
99
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
99
Table: Indicators And Weighting
100

The United States Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the American defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the American defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc