Business Monitor International


United States Autos Report

Published 27 June 2014

  • 72 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Autos Report

We retain our outlook that, despite a slow start in Q114, macroeconomic conditions are largely favourable, and we expect further growth in light vehicle sales, albeit slightly slower at 3.6%, to be achievable in 2014, taking the market back to 16mn units for the first time since 2007. We expect light trucks to continue to outperform the car segment, led by a slew of new product launches.

Data for the year so far bears this out. In 5M14, total light vehicle sales were up 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), but the balance was heavily weighted towards light trucks, with growth of 9.4% y-o-y, compared with 0.7% growth for passenger cars. Since the harsh winter conditions that kept consumers away from dealerships in Q114 abated, sales have returned to their growth trajectory, aided by low interest rates and favourable credit conditions.

Despite a 5.0% contraction in investment into residential housing in Q114, we expect the tightening labour market to support housing demand and we expect to see a recovery in the coming quarters. This is positive for our bullish view on light trucks, as the housing market is traditionally a bellwether for truck sales. We forecast 5.3% growth in light truck sales in 2014, which is still robust by historical standards, despite representing a slowdown from previous years.

At the heavier end of the spectrum, we forecast total medium and heavy truck sales to grow 5.3% to 370,379 units in 2014, pushing the market closer to the 400,000 unit mark last seen in 2005. In line with our view that strength in the freight transport sector will drive growth in demand for medium and heavy trucks in 2014, truck sales posted their best results for May since 2006 as freight levels also achieved new highs. The growth in US manufacturing, which is generating demand for road haulage of goods between factories and end users or ports and railways for export, will see this growth story continue for the remainder of the year and indeed our forecast period to 2018.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
12
Production Investment
13
Table: North American Production Investments, Feb-May 2014
14
Passenger Vehicles
15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
15
Competitive Landscape
17
Table: US Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
17
Table: US Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
18
Production
19
Alternative Fuels - Investment
20
Alternative Fuels - Consumption
23
Dealers
27
Commercial Vehicles
29
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
29
Table: Class 4 Truck Sales By Brand
31
Table: Class 5 Truck Sales By Brand
31
Table: Class 6 Truck Sales By Brand
32
Table: Class 7 Truck Sales By Brand
32
Table: Class 8 Truck Sales By Brand
33
Macroeconomic Forecast
34
Table: United States - Gdp By Expenditure
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Americas - Risk Reward Ratings
42
Table: Americas Autos Risk Reward Ratings
44
Company Profile
45
Industry Trend Analysis
45
General Motors (GM)
48
Chrysler
50
Ford Motor
51
Regional Overview
53
Americas Overview
53
Global Industry Overview
58
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
58
European Growth Gathers Momentum
58
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
60
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
61
Demographic Forecast
64
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
65
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
66
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
67
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
67
Methodology
68
Industry Forecasts
68
Sector-Specific Methodology
69
Sources
69
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
70
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
71

The United States Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United States Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc