Business Monitor International


United States Autos Report

Published 24 October 2014

  • 72 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Autos Report

While our view that the light vehicle market would return to 16mn units in 2014 and that the light truck market would outperform still very much hold true, the strength of demand has surpassed initial expectations. Incentives and discounts during the inventory-clearing summer months, coupled with affordable credit have resulted in total light vehicle sales for 8M14 of 11.185mn units, up 5.1% y-o-y. Within that total, passenger car sales were up 1.2% y-o-y and light truck sales continue to dominate with growth of 9.0% y-o-y.

Early estimates suggest that September will be another strong month and as such we have revised our forecast for the full year upward. The passenger car element remains the same, with a projection of 2.0%. However, we have revised up the light truck forecast from 5.0% to 8.0%, with the slightly lower rate than current sales taking into account the winding down of production of the Ford F-150 before the launch of its new version, which some reports suggest will now not arrive before the beginning of 2015.

Looking beyond this point, however, we have revised our outlook downward. The growth of recent years is becoming increasingly harder to replicate in a mature market as the 'recovery' phase should technically be closed with a return to 16mn units. At the same time, the average length of auto loans being taken out is increasing, which will keep consumers locked into their existing vehicle for longer. With this in mind, we have revised down our sales forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 2.3% and 2.0% respectively.

In the heavier commercial vehicle segment, our view that strength in the freight transport sector will drive growth in demand for medium and heavy trucks in 2014 is playing out, as medium truck sales were up 10.3% y-o-y and heavy truck sales up 18.7% y-o-y in 8M14 as freight levels also achieved new highs in August. According to the American Trucking Association, the For Hire Truck Tonnage Index in August was the highest on record, surpassing...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
12
Production Investment
13
Table: North American Production Investments, Feb-May 2014
14
Passenger Vehicles
15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
15
Competitive Landscape
17
Table: US Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
17
Table: US Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
18
Production
19
Alternative Fuels - Investment
20
Alternative Fuels - Consumption
23
Dealers
27
Commercial Vehicles
29
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
29
Table: Class 4 Truck Sales By Brand
31
Table: Class 5 Truck Sales By Brand
31
Table: Class 6 Truck Sales By Brand
32
Table: Class 7 Truck Sales By Brand
32
Table: Class 8 Truck Sales By Brand
33
Macroeconomic Forecast
34
Table: United States - Gdp By Expenditure
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Americas - Risk Reward Ratings
42
Table: Americas Autos Risk Reward Ratings
44
Company Profile
45
Industry Trend Analysis
45
General Motors (GM)
48
Chrysler
50
Ford Motor
51
Regional Overview
53
Americas Overview
53
Global Industry Overview
58
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
58
European Growth Gathers Momentum
58
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
60
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
61
Demographic Forecast
64
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
65
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
66
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
67
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
67
Methodology
68
Industry Forecasts
68
Sector-Specific Methodology
69
Sources
69
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
70
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
71

The United States Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United States Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc