Business Monitor International


United States Agribusiness Report

Published 02 April 2014

  • 165 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The US agriculture sector is unlikely to repeat the performance of 2013, a record year for production and incomes. Grain production overall is expected to be lower due to a smaller area planted and there are now concerns over soil quality in wheat-growing areas. However, the grains sector looks relatively positive compared with livestock, where production growth will be minimal in 2014. The pork sector is facing significant disease concerns from PEDv, while beef production will fall due to increased heifer retention. Fewer cattle facing slaughter will exacerbate record high retail beef prices. The dairy sector should see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production growth. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in livestock, and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybeans among the grains.

Key Trends

  • Beef production growth to 2017/18: 1% to 11.7mn tonnes. We have revised our beef production forecasts lower due to herd rebuilding in 2013, which should lead to fewer cows available for slaughter. The length of the cattle cycle means we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2014: 5% to 278mn tonnes. We have revised our 2014 consumption forecast lower due to our expectation for reduced demand from the livestock and ethanol sectors.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 18% to 23.8mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 2.8% year-on-year, up from 1.8% in 2013; predicted to average 2.5% from 2013 until 2017.

  • Consumer price inflation (avg): 1.8% ave in 2013, up from 1.7% in 2013.

Industry Developments & Revisions

Revisions - None this quarter

Industry Developments

We...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Grains Outlook
12
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Dairy Outlook
24
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
26
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
26
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
29
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
29
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Soybean Outlook
30
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
32
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
38
Sugar Outlook
38
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
39
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
39
Livestock Outlook
40
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
41
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
41
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
41
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
44
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
45
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
45
Cotton Outlook
46
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
47
Table: United States Cotton Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
50
Commodities Price Analysis
52
Monthly Grains Update
52
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
60
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
61
Monthly Softs Update
62
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
72
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
73
Upstream Analysis
74
Americas Machinery Outlook
74
Americas GM Outlook
80
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
85
Downstream Analysis
92
Food
92
Food Consumption
92
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
93
Confectionery
93
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
94
Canned Food
94
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
96
Dairy
96
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
96
Drink
97
Alcoholic Drinks
97
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017
101
Soft Drinks
102
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017
103
Hot Drinks
104
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2012-2017
105
Mass Grocery Retail
105
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
106
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
107
Regional Overview
108
Competitive Landscape
114
Table: Agribusiness Competitive Landscape
114
Company Profile
115
Bunge
115
Table: Financial Results
124
Monsanto Incorporated
124
Table: Monsanto Financial Results
136
Deere & Company
136
Table: Deere & Company Financial Data
147
Demographic Forecast
149
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
150
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
151
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
152
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
152
Methodology
153
Industry Forecast Methodology
153
Sector-Specific Methodology
154

The United States Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in United States.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The United States Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc