Business Monitor International


United States Agribusiness Report

Published 01 July 2014

  • 165 pages
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$1,295.00
United States Agribusiness Report

BMI View: The US agriculture sector is unlikely to repeat the performance of 2013, a record year for production and incomes , in 2014 . Grain production overall is expected to be lower due to a smaller area planted . That said , the grains sector looks relatively positive compared with livestock, where production will be flat in 2014. The pork sector is facing significant disease concerns from PEDv, while beef production will fall due to increased heifer retention. Fewer cattle facing slaughter will exacerbate record high retail beef prices. The dairy sector is likely to see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production risks . Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex , and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybeans among the grains.

Key Trends

  • Beef production growth to 2017/18: 4% to 11.8 mn tonnes. We have again revised our beef production forecasts lower due to herd rebuilding in 2013, which is likely to lead to fewer cows available for slaughter. The length of the cattle cycle means we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period.

  • Corn consu mption growth to 2014: 5% to 307.1 mn tonnes. We are below consensus regarding US corn consumption owing to poor livestock production prospects.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 18% to 23.8mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 2. 4 % year-on-year, up from 1.5% in 2013; predicted to average 2.4% from 2014 until 2018.

  • Consumer price inflation (ave ): 1.8% in 201 4, up from 1.7% in 2013.

Forecast Revisions

  • Wheat production revised down

  • Pork production revised down

  • Beef production revised down

Industry Developments

We...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Grains Outlook
11
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
12
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
12
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
18
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
18
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
18
Dairy Outlook
19
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
20
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
21
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
21
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
24
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
25
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
25
Soybean Outlook
26
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
27
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
29
Sugar Outlook
29
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
30
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
30
Livestock Outlook
31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
32
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
32
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
33
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
36
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
36
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
36
Cotton Outlook
37
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (United States 2012-2018)
38
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (United States 2008-2013)
43
Commodities Price Analysis
44
Monthly Softs Strategy
44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
53
Monthly Grains Strategy
54
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
63
Upstream Analysis
64
Americas GM Outlook
64
Americas Machinery Outlook
69
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
74
Downstream Analysis
80
Food
80
Food Consumption
80
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
81
Confectionery
81
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
82
Canned Food
83
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
83
Dairy
83
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
84
Drink
85
Alcoholic Drinks
85
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2013-2018
88
Soft Drinks
89
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2013-2018
90
Hot Drinks
91
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales, 2013-2018
91
Mass Grocery Retail
92
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2013-2018
93
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
93
Regional Overview
94
Competitive Landscape
100
Table: Agribusiness Competitive Landscape
100
Company Profile
101
Tyson Foods
101
Table: Tyson Foods Financial Data
112
Monsanto Incorporated
113
Table: Monsanto Financial Results
124
Demographic Forecast
126
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
127
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
128
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
129
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
129
Methodology
130
Industry Forecast Methodology
130
Sector-Specific Methodology
131

The United States Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in United States.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The United States Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc