Business Monitor International


United Kingdom Power Report

Published 03 March 2014

  • 108 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United Kingdom Power Report

BMI View: With the long-awaited UK Energy Bill having entered into law, the coalition government is clearly hoping that it will provide a stable regulatory framework that will ultimately unlock GBP110bn of investment in the country's stalling power sector. While the bill has been criticised for being overly-complex and opaque, such investment is certainly needed at a time when thermal capacity is being shuttered at a rapid pace in order to comply with EU emissions criteria. Critically this capacity has not been replaced as utilities have been deterred from investing because of the questionable economic s of gas-fired generation, at the same time as the issue of rising electricity prices has been used as a 'political football' by the main political parties - something that is likely to continue in the run up to the 2015 general election. While we have seen some promising activity in the nuclear segment, we note that proposed nuclear reactors will come online too late to replace shuttered thermal facilities - stoking fears of a capacity deficit in 2015 and 2016.

While the UK's economic trajectory improved significantly over the second half of 2013, our outlook for the country's power sector is complicated by numerous sector-specific factors - with the biggest remaining the uncertainty over future energy policy. While the coalition government's long-awaited Energy Bill was granted Royal Assent in December 2013, and there has been an uptick in activity in the domestic nuclear segment since the government agreed a strike price for two new nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point in Somerset, investment in traditional thermal generation capacity in UK's power sector continues to stall. To put the situation in context, Danish utility Dong Energy's UK Country manager, Benj Sykes, told the Daily Telegraph in December 2013 that it was extremely difficult to make investment decisions in the UK because energy policy was being treated as a 'political football'.

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
13
United Kingdom Snapshot
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
13
United Kingdom Power Forecast Scenario
14
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
14
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
14
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
15
Table: United Kingdom Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
17
Table: United Kingdom Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
18
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill
21
Table: 'Big Six' Energy Companies - Aggregate Profit Margin By Segment (%)
27
Table: UK LNG And Gas Storage Capacity
34
Table: The Hinkley Point Consortium
40
Table: UK Planned Nuclear Projects
46
Electricity Consumption
50
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
50
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
51
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
51
Table: United Kingdom Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
51
Table: United Kingdom Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
52
Table: United Kingdom Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
52
Table: United Kingdom Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2018-2023
52
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
55
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
62
United Kingdom Power Risk/Reward Rating
63
Rewards
63
Risks
64
Market Overview
66
Key Policies And Market Structure
66
Regulation and Competition
66
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill
67
Sustainable Energy Policies
69
Pricing
71
United Kingdom Power Projects Database
72
Table: UK Major Projects - Power
72
Competitive Landscape
80
EDF Energy
80
The National Grid Company
81
E
81
RWE npower
82
SSE
83
Scottish Power
83
Centrica
84
Company Profile
86
EDF Energy
86
Regional Overview
90
North America And Europe Regional Overview
90
Glossary
101
Table: Glossary Of Terms
101
Methodology
102
Methodology and Sources
102
Industry Forecast Methodology
102
Sources
105
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
105
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
106
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
108

The United Kingdom Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The United Kingdom Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks United Kingdom's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc