Business Monitor International


United Kingdom Power Report

Published 02 December 2014

  • 108 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United Kingdom Power Report

BMI View:   The biggest risk to the UK power sector is the failure to mobilise investment into new capacity because of opaque and highly politicised energy policy.   While the UK's Energy Bill and the EMR   have been signed into law , and plans to establish a capacity mechanism are advancing, fears of a capacity crunch in the winter of 2014/2015 have resurfaced - highlighting the fragility of the UK's supply-demand balance and the need to stimulate investment in the power sector .

A failure to mobilise investment in new power generation capacity will remain the biggest threat to the UK power sector over our 10-year forecast period. Although the coalition government is forging ahead with Electricity Market Reform (EMR), and the construction of new nuclear power plant by 2023, we believe the politicisation of the power sector and uncertainty over energy policy will continue to deter investment. Fears about a capacity crunch in the winter of 2014/2015 underpin our view.

National Grid's announcement that capacity margins would fall to 4.1% due to outages at coal and nuclear plants is a case in point. As a consequence of a failure to replace aging capacity (which in many cases is being closed to comply with EU emissions directives or because gas-fired plants are economical), the grid operator will implement contingency measures such as paying energy intensive firms to reduce demand at peak times. It has also has to award reserve power supply contracts to three power plants under a new tendering process known as the Supplementary Balancing Reserve (SBR).

While we believe that these measures will avert electricity shortages, the fact they are needed at all highlights the fragility of the UK power network and will strike a blow to business confidence. We maintain that, although there are 'bright spots' in the UK power industry such as offshore wind, the uncertain outcome of the 2015 general election, the results of a Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
United Kingdom Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
United Kingdom Power Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2017)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2018-2023)
16
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill
19
Table: 'Big Six' Energy Companies - Aggregate Profit Margin By Segment (%)
21
Table: The Hinkley Point Consortium
34
Table: UK Planned Nuclear Projects
37
Electricity Consumption
39
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2017)
39
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2018-2023)
39
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
40
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2017)
40
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2018-2023)
40
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2017)
40
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2018-2023)
40
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
43
North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: North America And Western Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
49
United Kingdom Power Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Rewards
51
Risks
51
Market Overview
53
Key Policies And Market Structure
53
Regulation and Competition
53
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill
55
Sustainable Energy Policies
56
Pricing
57
United Kingdom Power Projects Database
59
Competitive Landscape
67
EDF Energy
67
The National Grid Company
67
E
68
RWE npower
68
SSE
69
Scottish Power
70
Centrica
70
Company Profile
72
EDF Energy
72
Regional Overview
77
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
77
Glossary
85
Table: Glossary Of Terms
85
Methodology
86
Methodology And Sources
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sources
89
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
89
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
92

The United Kingdom Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The United Kingdom Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks United Kingdom's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc