Business Monitor International


United Kingdom Power Report

Published 04 June 2014

  • 108 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United Kingdom Power Report

BMI View: Our subdued forecasts for the UK power sector are a consequence of stalling investment in new thermal capacity and protracted uncertainty over government energy policy. While the UK's Energy Bill and the EMR have been signed into law , and there has been encouraging activity in the nuclear sector , many investors are unwilling to commit capital until market conditions improve a nd there is more clarity over energy policy and the outcome of the 2015 general election .

The outlook for the UK's power sector is complicated by numerous sector-specific factors - with the most pressing being the uncertainty over future energy policy and the politicisation of the power sector. While the long-awaited Energy Bill was signed into law in late 2013, and there has been an uptick in activity in the domestic nuclear segment since a strike price for two new nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point in Somerset was agreed, investment in traditional thermal generation capacity continues to stall.

This freeze in investment has been brought into sharp focus in recent months. Vast amounts of thermal baseload capacity (mainly coal-fired capacity) have been mothballed as utilities cut their losses rather than upgrade power plants in order to comply with costly European emissions reduction policies (such as the Large Combustion Plants Directive). With the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) stating that one-fifth of the UK's existing installed capacity is due to come offline over the next decade, capacity margins are set to narrow through 2015/2016.

Furthermore, while gas-fired capacity appears to be one of the favoured options with regards to replacing aging coal-fired capacity, many companies that had outlined plans to build new gas-fired power plants are now holding on until market conditions improve and there is more certainty with regards to future government energy policy and the outcome of the 2015 general election.

Key Trends And Developments

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
United Kingdom Snapshot
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
9
United Kingdom Power Forecast Scenario
10
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
10
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
10
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
12
Table: United Kingdom Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
14
Table: United Kingdom Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
15
Electricity Consumption
27
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
27
Table: United Kingdom Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
27
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
28
Table: United Kingdom Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
28
Table: United Kingdom Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
28
Table: United Kingdom Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
28
Table: United Kingdom Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2017-2022
28
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Table: Developed States' Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
36
United Kingdom Power Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Risks
37
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation and Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
40
Pricing
42
United Kingdom Power Projects Database
42
Table: UK Major Projects - Power
42
Competitive Landscape
47
EDF Energy
47
The National Grid Company
47
E
48
RWE npower
48
SSE
48
Scottish Power
49
Centrica
49
Company Profile
51
EDF Energy
51
Regional Overview
54
Developed States Industry Overview
54
Table: 2013 Regional Real GDP Growth Forecasts, % Change y-o-y
54
Table: Regional Real GDP Growth Forecasts, % Chg y-o-y
57
Glossary
59
Table: Glossary Of Terms
59
Methodology
60
Methodology And Sources
60
Industry Forecasts
60
Power Industry - Data Methodology
61
Generation and Consumption Data
61
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
62
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
65
Sources
66

The United Kingdom Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The United Kingdom Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks United Kingdom's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc