Business Monitor International


United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report

Published 31 December 2013

  • 77 pages
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$1,295.00
United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report

Growth in the UAE's petrochemicals capacity comes in the midst of a slowdown caused by increased Asian self-sufficiency. Unless external markets recover, BMI's latest UAE Petrochemicals Report warns that the additional capacity will exacerbate the problems faced in 2013 when the industry was facing slowing Asian markets, moderating product prices and rising feedstock costs.

UAE's Borouge is on track to start production at its six new petrochemical plants in 2014, including a 1.5mn tpa ethane cracker, two Borstar polyethylene (PE) units with a combined capacity of 1.08mn tpa, two Borstar polypropylene (PP) units with a combined capacity of 960,000tpa and a 350,000tpa low density PE (LDPE) unit. The project also includes an 80,000tpa cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) plant, which Borouge said will be a value-added complement to the 350,000tpa low-density polyethylene (LDPE) unit at the site. While previous statements have suggested that the third phase of Borouge will come onstream in Q114, by January 2014 company sources appeared to be suggesting that the cracker could take longer than anticipated to bring online.

  • The ability of UAE producers to profit from strong growth in Asian petrochemicals consumption will depend on China's own self-sufficiency. Slower growth in the Chinese market will complicate problems of oversupply in some petrochemical segments and a large inventory overhang in the manufacturing sector. However, fears over China's shaky financial system, overvalued property market, and huge industrial overcapacity have been replaced by hopes that policymakers can engineer a recovery back above the 8% growth level, providing upside for UAE's petrochemicals exports over the medium-term.

  • The availability of naphtha in the UAE will be boosted by refinery expansion at Ruwais, helping to retain the Emirati industry's competitive edge and enabling it to produce a wider range of products. The 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) Ruwais refinery is undergoing an...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: UAE's Petrochemicals Projects
14
Table: UAE's Petrochemicals Sector - Capacity, 2010-2018 ('000 tpa)
15
Macroeconomic Forecast
16
Fiscal Position Remains Solid
18
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
20
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
20
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q214
22
UAE Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Market Overview
24
Table: The UAE's Petrochemicals Sector - Cracker Capacity, 2011-2018 ('000 tpa)
25
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Abu Dhabi
26
Dubai And The Northern Emirates
28
Overseas Investment
29
Developments In Related Industries
29
Table: Major UAE Oil And Gas Concessions
30
Company Profile
32
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
32
Abu Dhabi Polymers (Borouge)
36
Regional Overview
39
Middle East And Africa Overview
39
Looking To Asia
39
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
40
African Growth Focused In The North
42
Global Industry Overview
44
A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014-
44
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
46
Long-Term Growth
46
Shale: The Future Of Feedstock-
48
Threats To growth
51
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
51
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
51
Methodology
54
Crude Price Forecasts
55
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
55
Oil Product Price Forecasts
55
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
56
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
57
Weak Demand Persists
58
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
59
Quarterly Prices
63
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
63
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
64
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
66
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
72
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
74
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
74
Risks To Outlook
76
Demographic Forecast
77
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
78
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
79
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
80
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
80
Glossary
81
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
81
Methodology
82
Industry Forecast Methodology
82
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
84
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
85
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
86

The United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc