Business Monitor International


United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report

Published 26 November 2014

  • 77 pages
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$1,295.00
United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report

The UAE is driving up petrochemicals capacities, but producers face a challenging external market as well as the prospect of rising naphtha feedstock prices, according to BMI's latest UAE petrochemicals report. Borouge will remain the focus of the development of the UAE's petrochemicals industry over the medium term, with an additional 2.5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) coming onstream in 2014 following the completion of Borouge 3 in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi in May 2014, when the operators started test runs on the cracker facility.

Borouge began test runs at its new 1.5mn tpa ethane cracker in Q214, although it will be some months before full commercial production is achieved and downstream units of the Borouge 3 complex are fully operational, including two Borstar polyethylene (PE) units with a combined capacity of 1.08mn tpa, two Borstar polypropylene (PP) units with a combined capacity of 960,000tpa and a 350,000tpa low density PE (LDPE) unit. The project also includes an 80,000tpa cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) plant, which Borouge said will be a value-added complement to the 350,000tpa low-density polyethylene (LDPE) unit at the site.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi is developing the Abu Dhabi National Chemicals Company (Chemaweyaat), a JV involving Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC, 20%), International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC, 40%) and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (40%), which it hopes will be the world's largest petrochemical complex, located in Khalifa Industrial Zone at Taweelah. It will include an olefins plant, an aromatics complex and a range of downstream polymer and chemical units, and is due to start production in 2014. The naphtha cracker will have capacity of 1.5mn tpa, but the exact details of the capacities of downstream units are unclear.

  • In the short term the export market is challenging. UAE producers will feel the squeeze of moderating economic activity in Europe and Asia and the continuing growth in capacity in emerging markets. China...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: UAE's Petrochemicals Projects
15
Table: UAE's Petrochemicals Sector - Capacity, 2010-2018 ('000 tpa)
17
Macroeconomic Forecast
18
Fiscal Position Remains Solid
20
Non-Oil Sector To Become Growth Driver
22
Table: United Arab Emirates - Economic Activity
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
24
MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: MEA Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q314
26
UAE Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Market Overview
28
Table: The UAE's Petrochemicals Sector - Cracker Capacity, 2011-2018 ('000 tpa)
29
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Abu Dhabi
30
Dubai And The Northern Emirates
33
Overseas Investment
33
Developments In Related Industries
33
Table: Major UAE Oil And Gas Concessions
35
Company Profile
37
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
37
Abu Dhabi Polymers (Borouge)
41
Regional Overview
44
Middle East And Africa Overview
44
Looking To Asia
45
Diversification The Long-Term Focus
47
African Growth Focused In The North
47
Global Industry Overview
51
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
54
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
55
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
56
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
57
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
57
Gasoline
59
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
59
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
60
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
61
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
64
Risks To Outlook
67
Diesel
67
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
68
New York's One-Off Heat Up
68
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
71
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
75
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
77
Risks To Outlook
81
Jet Fuel
82
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
82
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
82
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
84
Risks To Outlook
87
Bunker fuel
88
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
88
The Storm Clears For Shipping
89
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
91
Long-Term Threats Linger
92
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
94
Risks To Outlook
94
Demographic Forecast
96
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
97
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
98
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
99
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
99
Glossary
100
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
100
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
103
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
104
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
105

The United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc