Final-year sales data for 2013 were unavailable as this report was being compiled. Consequently, BMI retains its current forecasts this quarter, although we have now extended our forecast period out to 2018. Overall, BMI retains an optimistic outlook on new vehicle sales in the UAE, forecasting further growth of over 25% over the 2014-2018 period.
Underpinning our upbeat stance is BMI's positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy. At the end of November 2013, we revised up our forecasts for Dubai's economy on the back of the emirate winning the nomination to host the World Expo 2020. We continue to expect Dubai to become the key driver of the UAE's economic growth, as the emirate's non-oil sector expands substantially, especially given the economic boost of holding the Expo. In contrast, we expect Abu Dhabi will see GDP growth constrained by moderate increases in oil output and lower oil prices.
For the UAE as a whole, we are targeting 3.4% GDP growth in 2014 and we expect economic activity across the country to remain relatively robust over the coming quarters. The risks to our outlook are relatively small and well balanced. On the upside, any progress in talks between the US and Iran that lead to a reduction in sanctions would benefit the UAE, and in particular Dubai, given the importance of the re-export trade. On the downside, a sharper than expected decline in oil prices, or any unplanned outages in oil production, would pose the most significant threat to our forecasts.
Encouragingly for the auto sector, consumer sentiment is picking up, with prices across real estate and equity markets having started to head higher in recent months, which bodes well for the prospects of a positive wealth effect. One final encouraging factor for the autos market is the increase in migration from neighbouring states following the Arab Spring. With public transport still inadequate in Dubai, car purchases are being seen as immediate priorities for new...
The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.