New car sales have seen healthy growth in the UAE during 2014 to date. H114 was sales rise by a reported 20% to 199,277 units. June was a particularly strong month, with sales rising by 24% year-on-year (y-o-y). BMI believes this performance was bolstered in part by seasonal promotions. Given the positive start to 2014, we have decided to make an upwards revision to our 2014 sales forecast. We are now forecasting 10% growth, an improvement on our previous forecast of a 7% increase. This will take new car sales in the full year to just shy of 400,000 units.
BMI's positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy underpins our upbeat stance on the automotives sector. We forecast economic activity across the UAE to remain relatively robust over the coming quarters. Our core scenario sees real GDP growth of 3.9% in 2014, before picking up to 4.0% in 2015 as concerns over Dubai's debt funding cliff pass. A host of leading indicators point to further expansion for the UAE. The UAE's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for May 2014 came in at 57.3, one of the highest readings over the past year, underlining our bullish outlook on the country's non-oil economy. In addition, consumer sentiment towards the UAE is picking up. Prices across real estate and equity markets have headed sharply higher in recent months, which bode well for the prospects for a positive wealth effect. We are broadly bullish on real estate markets across the UAE, particularly in Dubai, which will likely see double-digit growth in prices for several months.
Rising prices across real estate and equity markets should also bode well for increased discretionary spending on autos by UAE citizens. Consumer and business sentiment towards Dubai has improved since the start of the year, with real estate and equity markets showing the most notable signs of this. The Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) has been one of the best-performing equity markets in the Middle East since the start of...
The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.