Business Monitor International


United Arab Emirates Autos Report

Published 18 March 2014

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United Arab Emirates Autos Report

Final-year sales data for 2013 were unavailable as this report was being compiled. Consequently, BMI retains its current forecasts this quarter, although we have now extended our forecast period out to 2018. Overall, BMI retains an optimistic outlook on new vehicle sales in the UAE, forecasting further growth of over 25% over the 2014-2018 period.

Underpinning our upbeat stance is BMI's positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy. At the end of November 2013, we revised up our forecasts for Dubai's economy on the back of the emirate winning the nomination to host the World Expo 2020. We continue to expect Dubai to become the key driver of the UAE's economic growth, as the emirate's non-oil sector expands substantially, especially given the economic boost of holding the Expo. In contrast, we expect Abu Dhabi will see GDP growth constrained by moderate increases in oil output and lower oil prices.

For the UAE as a whole, we are targeting 3.4% GDP growth in 2014 and we expect economic activity across the country to remain relatively robust over the coming quarters. The risks to our outlook are relatively small and well balanced. On the upside, any progress in talks between the US and Iran that lead to a reduction in sanctions would benefit the UAE, and in particular Dubai, given the importance of the re-export trade. On the downside, a sharper than expected decline in oil prices, or any unplanned outages in oil production, would pose the most significant threat to our forecasts.

Encouragingly for the auto sector, consumer sentiment is picking up, with prices across real estate and equity markets having started to head higher in recent months, which bodes well for the prospects of a positive wealth effect. One final encouraging factor for the autos market is the increase in migration from neighbouring states following the Arab Spring. With public transport still inadequate in Dubai, car purchases are being seen as immediate priorities for new...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sales
13
Table: UAE Automotive Sales, 2011-2018
13
Production
15
Trade
16
Table: UAE Auto Trade 2011-2018
16
Passenger Vehicles
17
Table: UAE - Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales, H113
17
Table: UAE - Top 10 Best Selling Models, 2012
18
Luxury Cars
21
Dealerships
23
Fleet And Rental
24
Commercial Vehicles
25
Suppliers
27
Alternative Fuels
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Fiscal Position Remains Solid
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Middle East And North Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Middle East And North Africa Autos
38
Company Profile
39
Company News Alert
39
Arabian Automobiles (Nissan)
42
Al-Futtaim (Toyota)
45
Regional Overview
48
Middle East And North Africa Overview
48
Compete Or Complement In The GCC-
48
North Africa Becoming A Viable Alternative
49
Still Cautious On Iran
51
Global Industry Overview
53
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
53
Europe On Road To Recovery
53
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
55
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
57
Demographic Forecast
60
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
61
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
62
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
63
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
63
Methodology
64
Industry Forecasts
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Sources
65
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
66
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
67

The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc