UAE new vehicle sales rose by 16.6% in 2013, to reach 362,838 units, according to information from the Focus2Move website. This strong performance was in line with BMI's thoughts on the subject. Looking forward, BMI retains an optimistic outlook on new vehicle sales in the UAE, forecasting growth of 36% from end-2013 to end-2018, to reach just under 500,000 units.
Underpinning our upbeat stance remains BMI's positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy. We forecast economic activity across the UAE to remain relatively robust over the coming quarters. Our core scenario sees real GDP growth of 3.9% in 2014, before picking up to 4.1% in 2015 as the debt funding cliff in Dubai passes. The risks to our outlook are relatively small and well-balanced. On the upside, any progress in talks between the US and Iran which lead to a reduction in sanctions would benefit the UAE, and in particular Dubai, given the importance of the re-export trade. In contrast, a sharper than expected decline in oil prices or any unplanned outages in oil production pose the most significant threat to our forecasts. Within the UAE, we are more bullish regarding Dubai's real estate, shipping and construction sectors, whilst Abu Dhabi will see growth constrained by our neutral-to-bearish outlook on oil prices.
A host of leading indicators also point to further economic expansion for the UAE. The UAE's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for February 2014 came in at 57.3, one of the highest readings over the past year and underlining our bullish outlook on the country's non-oil economy. In addition, consumer sentiment towards the UAE is picking up, with prices across real estate and equity markets having started to head sharply higher in recent months, which bodes well for the prospects for a positive wealth effect. Indeed, we are broadly bullish on real estate markets across the UAE, particularly in Dubai which will likely see double digit growth in prices for several months. In...
The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.