Business Monitor International


United Arab Emirates Autos Report

Published 01 October 2014

  • 58 pages
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$1,295.00
United Arab Emirates Autos Report

New car sales have seen healthy growth in the UAE during 2014 to date. H114 was sales rise by a reported 20% to 199,277 units. June was a particularly strong month, with sales rising by 24% year-on-year (y-o-y). BMI believes this performance was bolstered in part by seasonal promotions. Given the positive start to 2014, we have decided to make an upwards revision to our 2014 sales forecast. We are now forecasting 10% growth, an improvement on our previous forecast of a 7% increase. This will take new car sales in the full year to just shy of 400,000 units.

BMI's positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy underpins our upbeat stance on the automotives sector. We forecast economic activity across the UAE to remain relatively robust over the coming quarters. Our core scenario sees real GDP growth of 3.9% in 2014, before picking up to 4.0% in 2015 as concerns over Dubai's debt funding cliff pass. A host of leading indicators point to further expansion for the UAE. The UAE's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for May 2014 came in at 57.3, one of the highest readings over the past year, underlining our bullish outlook on the country's non-oil economy. In addition, consumer sentiment towards the UAE is picking up. Prices across real estate and equity markets have headed sharply higher in recent months, which bode well for the prospects for a positive wealth effect. We are broadly bullish on real estate markets across the UAE, particularly in Dubai, which will likely see double-digit growth in prices for several months.

Rising prices across real estate and equity markets should also bode well for increased discretionary spending on autos by UAE citizens. Consumer and business sentiment towards Dubai has improved since the start of the year, with real estate and equity markets showing the most notable signs of this. The Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) has been one of the best-performing equity markets in the Middle East since the start of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2018)
13
Sales
13
Production
15
Trade
17
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2018)
18
Table: UAE - Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales, 2013
18
Luxury Cars
22
Dealerships
24
Fleet And Rental
25
Commercial Vehicles
26
Suppliers
29
Alternative Fuels
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Fiscal Position Remains Solid
37
Non-Oil Sector To Become Growth Driver
39
Table: United Arab Emirates - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings- Middle East And North Africa Autos
44
Company Profile
45
Company Monitor
45
Arabian Automobiles (Nissan)
48
Al-Futtaim (Toyota)
51
Regional Overview
54
Industry Trend Analysis
54
Global Industry Overview
57
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
57
European Growth Gathers Momentum
57
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
59
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
60
Demographic Forecast
63
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
64
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
65
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
66
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
66
Methodology
67
Industry Forecasts
67
Sector-Specific Methodology
68
Sources
68
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
69
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
70

The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc