New vehicle sales have seen impressive growth in the UAE year-to-date, rising by a reported 12% over the first eight months of 2014, to 266,257 units. Against this upbeat backdrop, BMI is happy to maintain its forecast of 10% growth in the UAE new vehicle sales market for 2014, with sales growth set to remain strong in 2015 as well. Over the whole of our forecast period, we are targeting 35% growth in overall vehicle sales, to reach around 540,000 units by end-2018.
BMI's positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy underpins our upbeat stance. Despite the recent fall in the global oil price, we believe that the UAE can continue to record impressive rates of growth over the coming years. We forecast economic activity across the UAE to remain robust over the coming quarters. Our core scenario sees real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2015.
A host of leading indicators point to further expansion for the UAE. The country's purchasing managers' index for October came in at a record high of 61.2, underlining our bullish outlook on the country's non-oil economy. In addition, consumer sentiment towards the UAE is picking up, with prices across real estate and equity markets set to head broadly higher over the coming quarters, which bodes well for the prospects for a positive wealth effect. On an emirate level, we expect Dubai to be the main growth driver as the emirate's retail, housing and construction sectors continue growing apace. While growth in Abu Dhabi will be restrained by the plateauing hydrocarbon sector, growth in the emirate's real estate and transport sectors will ensure that growth rates remain healthy. A final encouraging factor for the autos market is the increase in migration from neighbouring states following the Arab Spring. With public transport still inadequate in Dubai, car purchases are seen as immediate priorities for new residents.
The risks to our outlook are relatively small and well balanced. On the upside, any progress in talks...
The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.