Business Monitor International


United Arab Emirates Autos Report

Published 18 March 2014

  • 58 pages
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$1,295.00
United Arab Emirates Autos Report

UAE new vehicle sales rose by 16.6% in 2013, to reach 362,838 units, according to information from the Focus2Move website. This strong performance was in line with BMI's thoughts on the subject. Looking forward, BMI retains an optimistic outlook on new vehicle sales in the UAE, forecasting growth of 36% from end-2013 to end-2018, to reach just under 500,000 units.

Underpinning our upbeat stance remains BMI's positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy. We forecast economic activity across the UAE to remain relatively robust over the coming quarters. Our core scenario sees real GDP growth of 3.9% in 2014, before picking up to 4.1% in 2015 as the debt funding cliff in Dubai passes. The risks to our outlook are relatively small and well-balanced. On the upside, any progress in talks between the US and Iran which lead to a reduction in sanctions would benefit the UAE, and in particular Dubai, given the importance of the re-export trade. In contrast, a sharper than expected decline in oil prices or any unplanned outages in oil production pose the most significant threat to our forecasts. Within the UAE, we are more bullish regarding Dubai's real estate, shipping and construction sectors, whilst Abu Dhabi will see growth constrained by our neutral-to-bearish outlook on oil prices.

A host of leading indicators also point to further economic expansion for the UAE. The UAE's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for February 2014 came in at 57.3, one of the highest readings over the past year and underlining our bullish outlook on the country's non-oil economy. In addition, consumer sentiment towards the UAE is picking up, with prices across real estate and equity markets having started to head sharply higher in recent months, which bodes well for the prospects for a positive wealth effect. Indeed, we are broadly bullish on real estate markets across the UAE, particularly in Dubai which will likely see double digit growth in prices for several months. In...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2018)
13
Sales
13
Production
15
Trade
17
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2018)
18
Table: UAE - Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales, 2013
18
Luxury Cars
22
Dealerships
24
Fleet And Rental
25
Commercial Vehicles
26
Suppliers
29
Alternative Fuels
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Fiscal Position Remains Solid
37
Non-Oil Sector To Become Growth Driver
39
Table: United Arab Emirates - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings- Middle East And North Africa Autos
44
Company Profile
45
Company Monitor
45
Arabian Automobiles (Nissan)
48
Al-Futtaim (Toyota)
51
Regional Overview
54
Industry Trend Analysis
54
Global Industry Overview
57
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
57
European Growth Gathers Momentum
57
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
59
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
60
Demographic Forecast
63
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
64
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
65
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
66
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
66
Methodology
67
Industry Forecasts
67
Sector-Specific Methodology
68
Sources
68
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
69
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
70

The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc