Business Monitor International


Ukraine Telecommunications Report

Published 04 April 2014

  • 120 pages
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Telecommunications Report

BMI View:   The ongoing crisis in Ukraine will likely filter down to the telecoms market as well, after operators reported damaged networks and instances of network blackouts , causing them to temporarily close retail outlets in Kiev . Crimea has been annexed by Russia and there is a risk that the likes of Ukrtelecom   may not be able to op erate in the region as it reported damage on its network in the region at the beginning of 2014 . We have downgraded our broadband and internet forecasts as a result of this and expect to see revenue slowdown for some of the major players over the course of 2014 . A possible silver lining is that the change in Ukrainian government could see the acceleration of the 3G licensing process, which has artificially held the market back for years and left it with the lowest mobile broadband penetration. We remain bearish on this possibility while the government has more pressing security concern, before a technical review of the spectrum allocation can be undertaken.

Key Data

  • The uptake of broadband services is low, with penetration estimated to have reached just 17.8% at the end of 2013.

  • Particularly significant is the lack of 3G service development, with 3G subscriptions accounting for just 2.6% of the mobile market at the end of 2013, by far the lowest in the region.

  • Ukraine's mobile market is expanded by 6.9% in 2013, down from the strong 9.2% in 2012, due to market saturation and the possibility of inactive subscription deduction.

Key Developments

Ukraine's National Commission for the State Regulation of Communications and Informatization (NCCIR) believes that the recent change in government in March 2014 will lead to a more positive and proactive approach with regards to the licensing of 3G services. The 2100MHz band required for 3G services remains in the hands of the military and is viewed as an important resource in ensuring national security, despite the fact that a block of 2100MHz spectrum is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
9
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Mobile
16
Table: Ukraine Telecoms Sector - Mobile Historical Data And Forecasts
16
ARPU
18
Table: ARPU - Historical Data And Forecasts (UAH)
18
Fixed-Line
20
Table: Ukraine Telecoms Sector - Fixed-Line Historical Data And Forecasts
20
Broadband
22
Table: Ukraine Telecoms Sector - Internet Historical Data And Forecasts
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Central And Eastern Europe Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213
28
Ukraine
28
Market Overview
31
Mobile
31
Regional Perspective
31
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2011
32
Key Developments
32
Market Growth
33
Market Share
34
Table: Ukrainian Mobile Market, Q412
35
ARPU
37
MVNOs
38
3G
38
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
41
Networks
42
Mobile Content/VAS
42
Table: Value-Added Services Timeline
44
Mobile Operators
45
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Overview
45
Table: MTS
45
Table: VimpelCom
47
Table: Astelit
48
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
49
Smartphones Drive Data Explosion
49
M-Commerce Developing Rapidly
50
Social Landscape Captures The Risk And Opportunities
52
Fixed-Line
54
Table: Ukrtelecom Revenue From Sale Of Telecommunications Services (UAHmn)
57
Broadband
59
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2012
72
Industry Trends & Developments
74
Industry Trends & Developments
74
Regulatory Development
78
Table: Regulatory Body Responsibilities
79
Regulatory Developments
80
Competitive Landscape
82
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Telecoms Market
83
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2008-2012
83
Operator Profiles
84
Ukrtelecom
84
Vimpelcom (Kyivstar)
90
MTS Ukraine
95
Astelit
100
Regional Overview
105
Alcatel Lucent
105
Table: Alcatel-Lucent: Quarterly Breakdowns Of Revenue By Segment, 2011-2012 (EURmn)
105
Under Pressure, Despite Carriers' Need For More Bandwidth
108
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
112
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
112
Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
113
Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
114
Glossary
115
Table: Glossary Of Terms
115
Methodology
117
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
117
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
118
Table: Ratings Indicators
119
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
120

The Ukraine Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ukraine's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ukraine.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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