Business Monitor International


Ukraine Telecommunications Report

Published 10 October 2014

  • 120 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Telecommunications Report

BMI View:   The ongoing crisis in Ukraine will likely filter down to the telecoms market as well, after operators reported damaged networks and instances of network blackouts, causing them to temporarily close retail outlets in Kiev. It has also had an impact on the economy with the depreciation of hryvnia against key currencies in the global market, which is eroding operator profit margins. Furthermore government's anti-Russian stance could result in sanction being imposed on Russian telecommunications companies and there is a risk they could be excluded from 3G spectrum auctions. This has led BMI to downgrade its 3G forecast and we also expect to see revenue slowdown for some of the major players over the course of 2014. Although a deadline of 30 October 2014 has been hailed for the 2100MHz spectrum auctions for 3G use, BMI is bearish on its impact to the market.

Key Data

  • The uptake of broadband services is low, with penetration estimated to have reached just 17.8% at the end of 2013.

  • Particularly significant is the lack of 3G service development, with 3G subscriptions accounting for just 2.6% of the mobile market at the end of 2013, by far the lowest in the region.

  • Ukraine's mobile market expanded by 3.9% in 2014 to 66.4mn, despite the civil unrest.

Key Developments

The government is keen to develop 3G capacity in Ukraine and was due to auction 2100MWh spectrum in August 2014. The 2100MHz band required for 3G services remains in the hands of the military and is viewed as an important resource in ensuring national security, despite the fact that a block of 2100MHz spectrum is already being utilised by incumbent Ukrtelecom. The first auction was scheduled for 15 August 2014, but then cancelled without explanation. A new deadline of 31 October 2014 has been hailed and according to local media reports three licences will be granted. It has, however been suggested that the Ukrainian government will ban companies where Russian ownership...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
9
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Mobile
16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2018)
16
ARPU
18
Fixed-Line
20
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2018)
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Central and Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: CEE Telecoms Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q314
27
Market Overview
29
Mobile
29
Regional Perspective
29
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2013
30
Key Developments
30
Market Growth
31
Market Share
32
Table: Ukrainian Mobile Market, Q114
34
ARPU
35
MVNOs
37
Networks
38
Mobile Content
40
Mobile Operator Data
43
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Overview
43
Table: MTS
43
Table: VimpelCom
45
Table: Astelit
46
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
47
Fixed-Line
53
Broadband
58
Pay-TV
67
Industry Trends & Developments
73
Table: Selected Developments
79
Regulatory Development
81
Table: Regulatory Body Responsibilities
82
Regulatory Developments
84
Table: Selected Regulatory Developments
84
Competitive Landscape
85
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Telecoms Market
85
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2009-2013
86
Company Profile
87
Ukrtelecom
87
VimpelCom (Kyivstar)
92
MTS Ukraine
97
Astelit
101
Regional Overview
105
Table: Ericsson Quarterly And Annual Results By Segment (SEKbn)
106
Demographic Forecast
109
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
111
Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
112
Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112
Glossary
113
Table: Glossary Of Terms
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Sources
116
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
117
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
118
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
119

The Ukraine Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ukraine's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ukraine.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc