Business Monitor International


Ukraine Power Report

Published 27 March 2014

  • 54 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Power Report

BMI View: The political upheaval in Ukraine will have a significant impact on the country's power sector both in the short and the long term. In the coming quarters we expect Russia to significantly raise the price of natural gas exports to Ukraine, which the country relies heavily on for its power generation. In the event of a severe deterioration in relations between Kiev and Moscow we could even see gas flows to Ukraine halted, significantly reducing Ukraine's generation capacity. In the longer term the pivot away from Russia will likely assist in drawing in direct investment into the country's power sector, helping to develop the country's energy infrastructure beyond its current decrepit state. However, there remain significant risks to both these short and long-term scenarios, with the political situation still very fluid at the time of writing, and the risks of further violence, or even a break of the country remaining pronounced.

Following the ousting of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych on February 22 2014, as a result of popular protests across the country, Ukraine's power sector is in a very precarious position. The ousting and the likely shift by any incoming government away from Russia's sphere of influence and towards the EU has severely irked the Kremlin. We expect to see significant increases in the cost of Russian gas exports to Ukraine in the months ahead, or potentially even the halting of flows. The former scenario will push prices up, while the latter will significantly reduce generating capacity. The wider macroeconomic situation will also hurt the power sector, with the significant depreciation of the hryvnia and the potential for the country to default on its debts to hinder foreign investment in the country's power sector.

In the longer term a pivot away from Russia's sphere of influence will likely result in an increase in Western investment, to the benefit of generating capacity and reducing transmission losses as Ukraine's power...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Ukraine Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Ukraine Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
11
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
13
Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
15
Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
16
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
21
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
21
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
23
Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
23
Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
24
Table: Ukraine Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
24
Table: Ukraine Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
24
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Rating
26
Rewards
26
Risks
26
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
33
Market Overview
34
Key Policies And Market Structure
34
Regulation And Competition
34
Pricing
36
Ukraine Power Projects Database
38
Table: Ukraine Major Projects - Power
38
Competitive Landscape
39
Ukrenergo
40
AES
40
Regional Overview
42
Industry Trend Analysis
42
Glossary
49
Table: Glossary Of Terms
49
Methodology
50
Methodology And Sources
50
Industry Forecast Methodology
50
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Ukraine Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Ukraine Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Ukraine's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc