Business Monitor International


Ukraine Power Report

Published 27 March 2014

  • 54 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Power Report

BMI View: The outlook for Ukraine ' s power sector and energy security looks as hazardous as it has ever done in 2014 and 2015. While the imminent threat of Russian invasion seems to have passed and the Russian state still relies on gas supplies travelling through Ukraine to Europe to support revenues, the deteriorating economic situation domestically and the still volatile political environment present significant downside risks to our sector forecasts. The government will be forced to implement unpopular austerity measures in order to access a USD17.0 Stand-By Arrangement from the IMF, with an increase in gas tariffs almost certain to occur , which in turn could suppress household energy consumption.

The political and economic crisis that has hit Ukraine in 2014 will undoubtedly see a seismic shift in the country's power sector for years to come. While the political situation is still tense following the victory of pro-EU candidate Petro Poroshenko in the May 25 presidential election, the country's economy remains on the brink of collapse. A USD17.0bn Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) from the IMF should provide some support but it will not solve Ukraine's economic woes. One of the seemingly inevitable consequences of the SBA will be a publicly unpopular hike to domestic gas prices as subsidies are removed. This in turn places downside risks to our forecast for electricity consumption growth in the next few years, especially in the household sector where real wages are set to tumble as a result of the economic downturn.

However, a gas price hike will prove inconsequential if Russian energy giant  Gazprom follows through with its threat to cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine as a penalty for unpaid bills. Natural gas generation accounted for an estimated 11.5% of total electricity generation in Ukraine in 2013. If these flows stop not only will the government suffer from lost transit revenue, but there is the very real risk that electricity demand will...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Ukraine Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Ukraine Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2017)
18
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2018-2023)
18
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2017)
20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2018-2023)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2017)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2018-2023)
21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
23
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: Regional Overview
28
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Rating
29
Rewards
29
Risks
29
Market Overview
31
Key Policies And Market Structure
31
Regulation And Competition
31
Pricing
33
Ukraine Power Projects Database
35
Table: Ukraine Major Projects - Power
35
Competitive Landscape
36
Ukrenergo
37
AES
37
Regional Overview
39
CEE Power Regional Overview
39
Glossary
46
Table: Glossary Of Terms
46
Methodology
47
Methodology And Sources
47
Industry Forecast Methodology
47
Sources
50
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
53

The Ukraine Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Ukraine Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Ukraine's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc