Business Monitor International


Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 23 September 2014

  • 122 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Ukraine remains a risky pharmaceutical market, despite having once been one of the most attractive markets in the Central and Eastern European region. In 2014, owing to the distressed economic situation in the country, drugmakers can expect a challenging business environment and capital outflow restrictions. Import taxes, pricing restrictions, and exchange rate volatility present significant risks to drugmakers operating in Ukraine, and will worsen the risk-reward ratio over the next two years. Over the long term, we find the market to be attractive due to an ageing population, demographic trends and a considerable disease burden, but the opportunity will be weighed down by pervasive macroeconomic risk and domestic instability.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: UAH36.20bn (USD4.44bn) in 2013 to UAH39.91bn (USD4.05bn) in 2014; +10.2% in local currency terms and -8.7% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast significantly lower in relation to previous quarter, on account of macroeconomic factors, exchange rate movements.

  • Healthcare: UAH109.92bn (USD13.48bn) in 2013 to UAH107.61bn (USD10.92bn) in 2014; -2.1% in local currency terms and -18.9% in US dollar terms. US dollar and local currency forecast revised down significantly owing to budgetary cuts and exchange rate movement.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Ukraine is seen as one of the least promising longer-term pharmaceutical markets within the 20 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries surveyed in our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). While volume demand is expected to continue growing in the coming years, the country's operating environment remains extremely unfavourable in 2014, especially in the light of the present economic instability and fluid political situation. On almost every metric we measure, in both risk and reward, Ukraine's score in 2014 has worsened.

Key Trends & Developments

  • Wholesalers and drugmakers will soon be forced to declare prices and these prices will be compared...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
25
OTC Medicines Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2018)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Ukraine 2012-2018)
30
Other Healthcare Data
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
33
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: Economic Activity (Ukraine 2009-2018)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Ukraine Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
46
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Table: Selected Causes Of Death, 2005-2010 ('000)
50
Table: Morbidity By Selected Diseases, 2005-2010 ('000)
50
Healthcare System
51
Healthcare System Reforms
52
Healthcare Funding
53
Health Insurance Developments
54
Research And Development (R&D)
55
Clinical Trials
56
Regulatory Development
58
Regulatory Regime
58
Regulatory Developments
60
Regulatory Amendments
61
Pharmaceutical Advertising
63
Intellectual Property Issues
64
Counterfeit Drugs
66
Pricing Regime
67
Recent Pricing Regime Developments
69
Reimbursement Regime
71
Drug Tendering Regime
73
Competitive Landscape
75
Pharmaceutical Industry
75
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
76
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
77
Table: Association of International Manufacturers (AIPM) Ukraine Members, 2011
77
Recent Company Activities
79
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
79
Pharmaceutical Retail
80
Company Profile
83
Arterium
83
Farmak
86
Gedeon Richter
88
Krka
91
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
94
GSK
96
Sanofi
98
Demographic Forecast
100
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
101
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
102
Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
103
Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
103
Glossary
104
Methodology
106
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Notes On Methodology
107
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
108
Ratings Overview
109
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
109
Indicator Weightings
110

The Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc