Business Monitor International


Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 04 March 2014

  • 122 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Ukraine remains a promising yet risky pharmaceutical market. In 2014, owing to the unstable political and economic situation in the country, drugmakers can expect a challenging business environment and capital outflow restrictions. Exchange rate risks present considerable downside to drugmakers ' revenues in the country, and with the threat of price controls and compulsory licensing , Ukraine's Risk/R eward ratio is worse ning . Over the long term, we find the market to be attractive due to an ageing population, demographic trends and a considerable disease burden.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: UAH34.05bn (US$4.18bn) in 2013 to UAH37.13bn (US$4.31bn) in 2014; +9.0% in local currency terms and +3.1.0% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast significantly lower in relation to previous quarter, on account of macroeconomic factors.

  • Healthcare: UAH109.23bn (US$11.87bn) in 2013 to UAH113.7bn (US$13.2bn) in 2014; +5.0% in local currency terms and -0.6% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Ukraine is seen as one of the least promising longer-term pharmaceutical markets within the 20 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries surveyed in our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). While volume demand is expected to continue growing in the coming years, the country's operating environment remains extremely unfavourable in 2014, especially in the light of the present social and political unrest and the country's worsening macroeconomic outlook. On almost every metric we measure, in both risk and reward, Ukraine's score has worsened. As a result, it's Q214 RRR score has been lowered relative to Q114.

Key Trends & Developments

  • Ukrainian Ministry of Health officials and representatives of drugmakers sat down to discuss drug pricing and concessions the government was willing to offer to ensure supply stability of medicines.

  • Reference pricing was introduced for insulin products sold in Ukraine. External referencing will be based on the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Ukraine - Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Ukraine - Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
18
Table: Ukraine - Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
18
Table: Ukraine - Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Ukraine - Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Ukraine - Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Ukraine - Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Ukraine - Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2018
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Ukraine - Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn), 2010-2018
32
Other Healthcare Data
33
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
36
Risks To Outlook
39
Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Ukraine Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Rewards
46
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Table: Selected Causes Of Death, 2005-2010 ('000)
50
Table: Morbidity By Selected Diseases, 2005-2010 ('000)
51
Healthcare System
51
Healthcare System Reforms
52
Healthcare Funding
54
Health Insurance Developments
55
Research And Development (R&D)
56
Clinical Trials
57
Regulatory Development
58
Regulatory Regime
58
Regulatory Developments
60
Regulatory Amendments
61
Pharmaceutical Advertising
63
Intellectual Property Issues
64
Counterfeit Drugs
66
Pricing Regime
67
Recent Pricing Regime Developments
69
Reimbursement Regime
71
Drug Tendering Regime
73
Competitive Landscape
76
Pharmaceutical Industry
76
Table: Retail Pharmacy Sales Value By Leading Company, 2007-2010 (UAHmn)
77
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
78
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
80
Table: Association of International Manufacturers (AIPM) Ukraine Members, 2011
80
Recent Company Activities
81
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
81
Pharmaceutical Retail
82
Company Profile
86
Arterium
86
Farmak
89
Gedeon Richter
92
Krka
95
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
98
GSK
100
Sanofi
102
Demographic Forecast
104
Demographic Outlook
104
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
105
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
106
Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
107
Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
107
Glossary
108
Methodology
110
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
110
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
110
Notes On Methodology
111
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
112
Ratings Overview
113
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
113
Indicator Weightings
114

The Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc