Business Monitor International


Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 December 2014

  • 111 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: While sustained interest from major international companies in Ukraine's gas reserves illustrates substantial underground potential, a worsening security situation and continuing political instability negatively affects exploration and production (E&P) activities. Recent tax hikes on oil, gas and mineral fuels are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector.

Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2018)
2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 74.7 69.5 66.8 64.3 61.8 59.5 57.2
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 257.1 254.5 251.9 249.4 246.9 244.5 242.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 318.8 312.2 311.8 319.3 325.3 329.7 335.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 20.1 20.4 20.5 20.2 20.0 20.1 20.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 49.5 45.3 45.3 45.5 45.7 45.9 46.2
f = forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

The main trends and developments in Q1 2015:

  • In late October 2014, Russia and Ukraine finalised an agreement that will see the restart of natural gas supplies to Ukraine. The gas price has been agreed at USD378 per 1,000 cubic metres (mcm) until the end of 2014, then USD365/mcm until the end of March 2015. Beyond this date no secure deal is in place.

  • In early October 2014, UK-based JKX Oil & Gas secured a 20-year production licence for its Elizavetovskoye field in Ukraine and has completed phase 1 of the production facility upgrade on the field. The upgrade will double the plant's capacity to 0.85mn cubic metres per day and includes debottlenecking, improved metering, superior condensate separation and a separate gas-powered electricity supply.

  • In mid-October 2014, Ukraine-focused exploration and development company Cub Energy started drilling the Rusko-Komarovske 23 (RK-23) vertical...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ukraine 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ukraine 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine
15
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2012-2017)
16
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2018-2023)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2012-2017)
18
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2018-2023)
18
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2012-2017)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2018-2023)
22
Refined Fuel Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2012-2017)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2018-2023)
24
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2012-2017)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2018-2023)
26
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2012-2017)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2018-2023)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2012-2017)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2018-2023)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ukraine 2012-2017)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ukraine 2018-2023)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2012-2017)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2018-2023)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
39
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Limited Supportive Policy
42
Regional Minnows Breaking Through
43
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
44
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
44
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Ratings
47
Market Overview
49
Ukraine Energy Market Overview
49
Overview/State Role
49
Government Policy
49
International Energy Relations
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Ukraine
53
Oil Pipelines
56
LNG Terminals
58
Gas Storage
58
Gas Pipelines
58
Competitive Landscape
61
Competitive Landscape Summary
61
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector
62
Table: Key Upstream Players
62
Table: Key Downstream Players
63
Company Profile
64
Naftogaz Ukrainy
64
Rosneft
69
Lukoil Ukraine
71
JKX Oil & Gas
73
Galnaftogaz
77
Other Summaries
80
Regional Overview
85
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Overview
85
CEE Oil Production - Russia Dominates, Caspian Output To Grow
85
CEE Oil Consumption - Regional Demand Outpacing Supply
86
CEE Refining Capacity - Few Bright Spots
87
CEE Natural Gas Production - Caspian Firing Up China
88
CEE Gas Consumption - New Gas Mainly Exported
89
Global Industry Overview
91
Global Energy Market Overview
91
Appendix
97
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
97
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
97
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
98
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
100
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
107
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
107
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
108
Ukraine - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
109
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ukraine 2012-2017)
109
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ukraine 2018-2023)
109
Ukraine - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ukraine 2012-2017)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ukraine 2018-2023)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ukraine 2012-2017)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ukraine 2018-2023)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ukraine 2012-2017)
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ukraine 2018-2023)
115
Glossary
117
Table: Glossary Of Terms
117
Methodology
119
Industry Forecast Methodology
119
Source
121
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
121
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
123
Table: Weighting
124

The Ukraine Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ukraine including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ukraine Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ukraine to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc