Business Monitor International


Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

Published 02 July 2014

  • 111 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Sustained interest from major international companies in Ukraine's gas reserves provides some upside potential in alleviating a part of its import burden in the long run. However, escalating political instability in Ukraine will delay exploration and development (E&P) work, while international investors wait for a clearer picture to emerge as to the set up of the new government and the new status quo in the country.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Ukraine's oil and gas sector are:

  • In April 2014, the Russian government increased gas prices for Ukraine by 81% to USD485 per 1000 cubic meters up from USD268.5 in January 2014. The Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that the move cancels discounts provided by the government to Ukraine as part of a treaty in 2010. This price hike for imported gas from Russia could strengthen the profit margins of E&P pursued by independent companies thus prompting a faster growth of domestic production.

  • Following Gazprom's price hikes for imported natural gas to Ukraine, the Ukrainian interim government turned to major European energy companies seeking for additional gas supplies. On April 17, the Ukrainian Energy Minister Yury Prodan made an agreement with the CEO of Italian energy company Eni, Paolo Scaroni, to increase the company's gas production activities in Ukraine. Later in the month, the Ukrainian government signed a deal with the German energy company RWE for the supply of natural gas in the week ended April 19. Finally, in late April, the Ukrainian government reached an agreement with Slovakia regarding opening up of limited reverse flow of natural gas from central Europe to Ukraine.

  • Russia's annexation of Crimea, including its oil and gas assets in the region, created an uncertain situation with regards to Black Sea assets and the future of exploration licences. The Crimean offshore was a key part of Ukraine's strategy to develop domestic resources and reduce the impact of gas...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Ukraine Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Ukraine Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply
15
Table: Ukraine Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Ukraine Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Ukraine Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Ukraine Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
23
Table: Ukraine Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
23
Table: Ukraine Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
28
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Growing Technical Challenges
31
Regional Minnows Breaking In
32
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
33
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
33
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Market Overview
39
Ukraine Energy Market Overview
39
Overview/State Role
39
Government Policy
39
International Energy Relations
42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
42
Oil Refineries
42
Table: Refineries In Ukraine
43
Oil Pipelines
46
LNG Terminals
48
Gas Storage
48
Gas Pipelines
48
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Table: Key Downstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
Naftogaz Ukrainy
54
Rosneft
59
Lukoil Ukraine
61
JKX Oil & Gas
63
Galnaftogaz
68
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
76
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
76
Trade Dynamic To Persist But Growth Moves East
78
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
79
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
81
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
83
South Stream Looking Weak
84
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
84
Shale Gas Showdown
85
Global Industry Overview
88
Global Energy Market Overview
88
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
90
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
91
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
92
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
94
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
94
Appendix
97
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
97
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
101
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
104
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
105
Ukraine - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
106
Table: Ukraine Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012 -2017
106
Table: Ukraine Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018 -2023
107
Table: Ukraine Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
108
Table: Ukraine Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
109
Table: Ukraine Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
110
Table: Ukraine Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
111
Glossary
113
Table: Glossary Of Terms
113
Methodology
115
Industry Forecast Methodology
115
Source
117
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
117
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
119
Table: Weighting
120

The Ukraine Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ukraine including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ukraine Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ukraine to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc