Business Monitor International


Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

Published 20 February 2014

  • 111 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: S ustained interest from major international companies in Ukraine's gas reserves provides some upside potential in alleviating a part of its import burden in the long run. However, a recent deal with Gazprom, which cuts natural gas import prices to Ukraine by 33%, poses risks to new exploration and production developments as the downward pressure on prices could weaken the profit margins of the exploration and production (E&P) activity.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Ukraine's oil and gas sector are:

  • Ukraine refused to sign a far-reaching political and trade agreement with the European Union (EU) in late November 2013 and accepted Russia's offer that included a 33% reduction in gas prices among other economic largess. A deal formalised on January 10 2014 allows Ukraine to buy gas exclusively from Russia at two-thirds of the original price for Q114 - it now pays US$268.50 per million cubic metres (Mcm) for gas - or about US$7.20 per million British Thermal Units (mnBTU), compared to US$406.00/Mcm (US$10.89/mnBTU) it paid in Q113.

  • US oil and gas company Chevron signed a US$10bn shale gas production-sharing agreement with the Ukrainian government on November 5 2013. Under the terms of the agreement, Chevron will have the right to explore shale and gas reserves at the Olesska deposit in the western region of Ukraine. Chevron will spend US$350mn a year in the exploratory stage of the project, while total investment is expected to exceed US$10bn, according to the Ukrainian energy ministry.

  • In November 2013, Ukraine signed an offshore oil and gas production-sharing agreement (PSA) with Eni and EDF. In a statement, Eni said that the agreement concerned a 1,400 square-km offshore area off of Western Crimea. It would include the Subbotina oil licence and the Pry Kerch block, where several oil and gas prospects have been identified. Eni would be the operator in the venture, with a 50% stake. State-controlled firms Vody Ukrainy and ...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Ukraine Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Ukraine Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Hydrocarbons Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply
15
Table: Ukraine Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Ukraine Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Ukraine Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Ukraine Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Ukraine Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
22
Table: Ukraine Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
28
East Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
28
Russia: Large Resource Base But Limited Opportunities
30
Regional Minnows Breaking In
32
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
33
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
33
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Market Overview
38
Ukraine Energy Market Overview
38
Overview/State Role
38
Government Policy
38
International Energy Relations
42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
43
Oil Refineries
43
Table: Refineries In Ukraine
43
Oil Pipelines
46
LNG Terminals
48
Gas Storage
48
Gas Pipelines
48
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Table: Key Downstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
Naftogaz Ukrainy
54
Rosneft
59
Lukoil Ukraine
61
JKX Oil & Gas
64
Galnaftogaz
68
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
76
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
76
A Mutually Dependent Relationship
78
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
79
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
80
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
82
South Stream Looking Weak
83
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
83
Shale Gas Showdown
84
Global Industry Overview
87
Appendix
94
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
94
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
100
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
100
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
101
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
102
Glossary
103
Table: Glossary Of Terms
103
Methodology
105
Industry Forecast Methodology
105
Source
107
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
107
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
109
Table: Weighting
111

The Ukraine Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Ukraine including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ukraine Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ukraine to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc