Business Monitor International

Ukraine Freight Transport Report

Published 16 January 2014

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Ukraine Freight Transport Report

Following a year in which BMI believes saw declining volumes in all freight modes but one, 2014 will signal slow growth across the whole freight transport sector and in some modes a return to pre-downturn levels.

Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 7.81% in 2014 following an estimated decline of 2.32% in 2013.

Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 8% in 2013. Ukraine is not an EU member and thus is not under the same pressure as EU states in reducing road haulage. The mode is estimated to be the quickest to complete the full recovery to its pre-downturn freight levels.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.3%

  • 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.9%

  • 2014 Port of Odessa throughput is forecast to grow by 4%

  • 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.9%

  • 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.2%

  • 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 7.8%

Key Industry Trends

More Investments for Ukraine ' s Ports - Ukraine has attracted more investments into its port infrastructure at the end of 2013, with funds from China and from one of major global commodities merchandisers making their way into the country. At the beginning of December, the Chinese businessman Wang Jing said he will spearhead a US$3bn joint venture to build a deep-water port and refurbish Ukrainian port of Sevastopol. In October one of major global commodities merchandisers, the Rotterdam-headquartered Louis Dreyfus Commodities announced an agreement with Odessa-based operator Brooklyn Kiev to establish a joint venture for the development and management of a multi-commodity terminal in Odessa.

Corn to Drive Export Growth through the Ports - BMI sees downside risks to our 2013/14 wheat production forecast for Ukraine as heavy rains across most of the country substantially delayed the harvest. On the other hand, we maintain our corn production...

The Ukraine Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Ukraine Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc