Business Monitor International


Uganda Power Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Uganda Power Report

BMI View: Uganda's power sector is ill-equipped to meet rising power demand, with the World Economic Forum ranking the country 126th out of 148 countries for the quality of its electricity supply in its Global Competitiveness Report for 2013-2014. Its primary source of energy is hydropower (mainly from the Nile), which exposes the country to droughts, and its percentage of the energy mix is to increase further over the forecast period to 2023. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) is aplenty, with Uganda and Tanzania receiving the largest amount of FDI inflows in East Africa in 2012, with investment from international financial institutions (IFIs) on the horizon. The country's primary problem is its electrification rate, with just 9% of the population connected to an electricity supply.

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Uganda's rapidly expanding population is putting pressure on its existing power infrastructure, which is poor, with just 9% of the population connecting to an electricity supply. Over the 10-year forecast period to 2023, generation is to increase by an annual average of 6.9%, with consumption to increase by an annual average of 7.7% of the same period. Uganda's primary source of energy is hydropower (mainly from the Nile), which leaves the country vulnerable to climatic conditions, with critics urging the Uganda to further explore its nuclear potential.

The country has good prospects, with Uganda and Tanzania attracting the largest amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) in East Africa over 2012, according to the State of East Africa 2013 report. It states that the region 'attracted FDI inflows of US$3.9bn in 2012 - a US$1.8bn increase from U$2.6bn in 2011. With a combined total inflow of US$3.4bn, the two main energy rich countries of Uganda and Tanzania received 90% of the investment inflows into the region'. In addition to this, the World Bank is to provide around US$200mn in funding over the next couple of years, with the Power Africa initiative also promising to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Recent Developments
8
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Uganda Snapshot
11
Table: Economic And Demographic Data
11
Table: Power Sector
11
Uganda Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
12
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
12
Table: Uganda Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
13
Table: Uganda Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
14
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
20
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
20
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
22
Table: Uganda Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
22
Table: Uganda Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
22
Table: Uganda Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
23
Table: Uganda Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings
32
Uganda Power Risk/Reward Rating
32
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
35
Key Policies And Market Structure
35
East Africa Power Projects Database
40
Table: East Africa Major Projects - Power
40
Competitive Landscape
48
Regional Overview
53
MEA Regional Overview
53
Glossary
61
Table: Glossary Of Terms
61
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Source
65
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
65
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Uganda Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Uganda Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Uganda's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc