Business Monitor International

Uganda Power Report

Published 21 July 2014

  • 69 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
Uganda Power Report

BMI View:   The outlook for Uganda ' s power sector is good. The country is investing in both thermal and renewable energy and generation will double over the next decade. Demand for electricity will also double as the economy and population grows, and as investment in the electricity grid gives more people access to power. However, market opportunities are limited by a hazardous investment environment.

The outlook for Uganda's power sector is good. Following an unbundling of the power sector last decade and a commitment by the government to diversify beyond a traditional dependence on hydropower, the country is now developing the capacity to generate both thermal and renewable energy. This will underpin a near doubling in electricity generation over the next decade. At the same time, demand for electricity will also double as the economy and population grows, and as investment in the electricity grid gives more people access to power. However, market opportunities are limited by a hazardous investment environment, characterised by high levels of corruption and political risk, including the risk of sudden withdrawal of operating licences, as recently happened with Umeme.

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation will increase by 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 to 3.2TWh, and by 94.2% over the ten-year timeframe, reaching 5.8TWh in 2023.

  • Power consumption will increase by 9.5% y-o-y in 2014 to 2.9TWh, rising to 5.6TWh by 2023. This implies potential for the export of electricity towards the end of the forecast period.

  • Transmission and distribution losses in 2014 are moderate at 7.0% of output and will slightly in percentage terms over the 10-year forecast period

Recent Developments

  • In March, the Ugandan parliament voted to terminate the contract giving Umeme the right to distribute energy in Uganda ten years before its expiration, citing persistent load shedding, high electricity tariffs and faulty billing systems.

  • In May, Umeme Holdings Limited, the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Uganda Snapshot
Table: Economic And Demographic Data
Table: Power Sector
Uganda Power Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Uganda Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Uganda Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Electricity Consumption
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Uganda Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Uganda Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Uganda Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Table: Uganda Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
Table: Uganda Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Uganda Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Table: SAPP Membership
East Africa Power Projects Database
Table: East Africa Major Projects - Power
Competitive Landscape
Regional Overview
MEA Industry Overview
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators

The Uganda Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Uganda Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Uganda's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc