Business Monitor International


Uganda Food & Drink Report

Published 26 September 2014

  • 58 pages
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$1,295.00
Uganda Food & Drink Report

We maintain our view that economic growth in Uganda will quicken in pace in 2014 driven by a fast-growing consumer segment and accelerating investment into the infrastructure and extractive sectors. Still, we believe the outlook has softened slightly in recent months owing, in part, to the effects of the intensifying crisis in South Sudan and a weaker-than-expected recovery in credit growth.

For a number of reasons we believe that the outlook for the Ugandan economy over the coming months has dimmed slightly since our last update and this has prompted us to make some modest downward revisions to our forecasts for headline growth in 2014 and 2015. We now predict that real GDP growth in the East African country will expand by 6.3% this year and 6.4% next year, compared with our previous projections of 6.6% and 6.8% respectively, and we believe that risks are weighted to the downside.

Private consumption will be the primary driver of economic growth in Uganda over the next few years. Having contributed 5.2 percentage points (pp) to headline GDP growth in 2013, we expect this to rise to 5.4pp in 2014 as consumer confidence returns following a challenging couple of years for the sector.

This recovery will be aided by improving credit conditions and a relatively favourable outlook for inflation. While credit to other key sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade remains relatively subdued by historical levels, credit to households has surged in recent months, with loans to households and individuals growing by 39.0% year-on-year on average between September 2013 and February 2014 (the latest figure available). While the cost of commercial borrowing remains high at some 20%, it is falling gradually and we expect this trend to continue as confidence slowly returns to the banking sector. The outlook for inflation is also generally supportive of this trend, with headline price growth likely to remain relatively contained over the course of the year. We believe,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Industry Forecast
8
Food
8
Food Consumption
8
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2018)
11
Confectionery
12
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2018)
12
Dairy
12
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
12
Drink
13
Alcoholic Drinks
13
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
15
Soft Drinks
15
Table: Carbonated Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
17
Hot Drinks
18
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
18
Mass Grocery Retail
19
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
20
Macroeconomic Forecast
21
Economic Analysis
21
Table: Uganda - Economic Activity
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q414
29
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q414 (scores out of 10)
32
Market Overview
33
East Africa Market Overview
33
Industry Trends And Developments
39
East Africa Industry Trends And Developments
39
Global Industry Overview
42
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
48
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
50
Demographic Forecast
51
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
52
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
53
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
54
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
54
Glossary
55
Food & Drink
55
Mass Grocery Retail
55
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sector-Specific Methodology
58
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
59
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
60
Table: Weighting
61

The Uganda Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Uganda Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Uganda.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Uganda through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc