Business Monitor International


Uganda Food & Drink Report

Published 13 March 2014

  • 58 pages
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$1,295.00
Uganda Food & Drink Report

The Ugandan economy rebounded strongly in 2013, and we expect this positive momentum to continue over the coming quarters. Even so, the deleterious effects of a recent drought on inflation and household income growth have dampened our outlook. We expect inflation in Uganda to head higher over the coming months owing to the effects of drought-induced food price pressure. While this pressure is likely to ease through H114, we believe that the Bank of Uganda will maintain a hawkish stance.

We forecast that real GDP growth will come in at 6.6% in 2014, following 5.7% growth in 2013. We also hold the view that real private final consumption will grow strongly, at 7.4% in 2014. We believe that private consumption will expand around this rate through our forecast period.

In 2013, we estimate that GDP per capita stood at UGX1.7m (US$675), low by any standards. However, we believe that this will rise by 69% through to 2018, reaching US$1,078.

The completion of the Bujagali power station (which came online in August 2012) has helped to overcome the threat of a notoriously unreliable energy supply. However, the instability of the country's neighbour, South Sudan, could prove economically harmful should it impact Uganda's ability to export to its major export destination of Sudan.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 food consumption (local currency) growth: +14.7%; compound annual growth rate 2014 to 2018: +16.1%.

  • 2014 beer value sales (local currency) growth: +13.6%; CAGR to 2018: +15.3%.

  • 2014 mass grocery retail sales (local currency) growth: +16.1%; CAGR to 2018: +17.2%.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Industry Forecast
8
Food
8
Food Consumption
8
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
9
Confectionery
9
Table: Sugar Confectionery Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
9
Dairy
10
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
10
Drink
11
Alcoholic Drinks
11
Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
12
Soft Drinks
13
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
13
Hot Drinks
13
Table: Tea Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
13
Mass Grocery Retail
15
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
16
Macroeconomic Forecast
17
Table: UGANDA - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q214
24
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q214 (scores out of 10)
27
Market Overview
28
East Africa Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
34
East Africa Industry Trends And Developments
34
Key Industry Trends And Developments
34
Global Industry Overview
38
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
47
Demographic Forecast
48
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
Glossary
52
Food & Drink
52
Mass Grocery Retail
52
Methodology
54
Industry Forecast Methodology
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
56
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
57
Table: Weighting
58

The Uganda Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Uganda Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Uganda.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Uganda through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc