Business Monitor International


Uganda Business Forecast Report

Published 26 February 2014

  • 37 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Uganda Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • Ugandan economy rebounded strongly in 2013 and we expect this positive momentum to continue over the coming quarters. Even so, the deleterious effects of the recent drought on inflation and household income growth have dampened our outlook.

  • We expect inflation in Uganda to head higher over the coming months due to the effect of drought-induced food price pressures. While these pressures should ease through H114, we believe that the Bank of Uganda will maintain a hawkish stance.

  • President Yoweri Museveni and his ruling National Resistance Movement Party (NRM) face a tough year ahead. Across the political spectrum, frustration and anger at the government has been building of late and shows no sign of abating.

Major Forecast Changes

  • Recent developments have prompted us to lower our growth projections and we now expect real GDP growth in 2014 to come in at around 6.5%, compared to 7.6% before.

  • Recently published balance of payments data by the Bank of Uganda have prompted us to adjust our forecasts for the country's current account deficit. We are now predicting a shortfall equal to 7.6% of GDP in 2014 compared to our previous estimate of 8.8%.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Weather always poses risks to our outlook, as the Ugandan economy is heavily reliant on agriculture. Adverse weather conditions could seriously hamper economic output and stoke inflationary pressures, while favourable weather could boost productivity.

  • If there are further delays to oil production - currently scheduled to begin in 2017 - or if the industry moves more quickly than we anticipate, we would adjust our medium-to-long term forecasts accordingly.

  • Although Uganda remains largely peaceful, infighting within the NRM ruling party, as well as ongoing grievances from opposition groups and civil society, pose a threat to Uganda's longstanding stability if underlying concerns are not adequately addressed.

UGANDA - MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
2011 2012 2013f...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Stern Challenges Ahead, But Museveni Steady At The Helm
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Challenges For Museveni
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth To Quicken As Consumer Sector Picks Up
14
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
14
Monetary Policy
16
Even Balance Of Risks For Rates
16
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
16
Balance Of Payments
17
Wide C/A Deficit To Persist
17
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
18
Fiscal Policy
20
Soaring Spending Plans To Keep Fiscal Balance In The Red
20
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Uganda Economy to 2023
23
A Decade Of Promise But Also Of Risk
23
TABLE: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Business Environment
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
25
Institutions
26
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
26
Table : BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
27
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
28
Infrastructure
29
TABLE: AFRICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
29
Table : TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
30
Market Orientation
31
Table: Top export destinations
31
Operational Risk
32
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
33
Global Outlook
33
Fairly Benign Prognosis
33
Table : Global Assumptions
33
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
34
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
34
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
35

The Uganda Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Uganda and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Uganda's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Uganda's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Uganda's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Uganda, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Uganda Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ugandan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Uganda through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Uganda Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Uganda and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Uganda, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Uganda over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Uganda country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Ugandan Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Uganda.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Uganda's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Uganda's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Uganda, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Uganda's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express