Business Monitor International


Uganda Business Forecast Report

Published 26 August 2014

  • 37 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Uganda Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • We maintain our view that economic growth in Uganda will quicken in pace in 2014 driven by a fast-growing consumer segment and accelerating investment into the infrastructure and extractive sectors. Still, we believe the outlook has softened slightly in recent months owing to the effects of the intensifying crisis in South Sudan and a weaker-than-expected recovery in credit growth.

  • We are more pessimistic than the government in our projections for the country's fiscal balance in FY2014/15. Official tax collection targets are likely to prove overly ambitious, particularly set against a recent softening in the outlook for the economy and Uganda's deteriorating relationship with foreign donors. Limiting expenditure to a 10% rise may also prove challenging against a backdrop of soaring capital spending and wage and election-related current spending pressures.

  • Despite negative international headlines, the approval of new anti-homosexuality legislation has provided a much-needed domestic popularity boost for President Yoweri Museveni ahead of the elections in 2016.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We believe that the outlook for the Ugandan economy over the coming months has dimmed slightly since our last update. We now predict that real GDP growth in the East African country will expand by 6.3% this year and 6.4% next year, compared to our previous projections of 6.6% and 6.8% respectively.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Weather always poses risks to our outlook, as the Ugandan economy is heavily reliant on agriculture. Adverse weather conditions could seriously hamper economic output and stoke inflationary pressures, while favourable weather could boost productivity.

  • If there are further delays to oil production - currently scheduled to begin in 2017 - or if the industry moves more quickly than we anticipate, we would adjust our medium-to-long term forecasts accordingly.

  • The ongoing and deepening crisis in South Sudan poses a risk to our forecasts the...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Museveni's Calculated Gamble To Bring Election Boost
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Political Challenges For Museveni Ahead
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth Forecast Trimmed, But Outlook Still Bright
14
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
14
Balance Of Payments
16
Damaged Perceptions Add To External Account Pressures
16
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
17
Monetary Policy
19
Inflation To Rise, But Mild Response Warranted
19
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
19
Fiscal Policy
21
Fiscal Accounts To Remain Under Pressure Until Onset Of Oil
21
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
21
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Ugandan Economy To 2023
25
A Decade Of Promise But Also Of Risk
25
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Chapter 4: Business Environment
27
SWOT Analysis
27
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
27
Business Environment Outlook
28
Institutions
28
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
28
Table: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
29
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
30
Infrastructure
31
TABLE: AFRICA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
31
Table: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
32
Market Orientation
33
Table: Top export destinations
33
Operational Risk
34
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
35
Global Outlook
35
Growth Increasingly Polarised
35
Table: Global Assumptions
35
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %
36
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
Table : Emerging Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %
37

The Uganda Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Uganda and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Uganda's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Uganda's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Uganda's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Uganda, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Uganda Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ugandan economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Uganda through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Uganda Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Uganda and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Uganda, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Uganda over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Uganda country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Ugandan Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Uganda.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Uganda's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Uganda's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Uganda, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Uganda's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express