The most recent data released by the Ugandan Motor Industry Association show that newly registered vehicles are up 30.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first 11 months of 2013. In light of this, an improving inflation and private consumption outlook, government commitment to improving 'productive infrastructure' and the development of Uganda's substantial oil reserves, we have upgraded our forecasts over the 2014-2018 period. However, based on the re-introduction of the Pre-Export Verification of Conformity, which is likely to raise prices for consumers, we expect growth for 2014-2015 to be lower.
The government has recently taken steps towards improving Uganda's ageing and poor-quality vehicle fleet. The re-introduction of the Pre-Export Verification of Conformity will mean that traders who fail to comply may lose their trading licence and or risk being closed down.
Commercial vehicles (CVs), in particular pickups and station wagons, are dominating the small new vehicle market, accounting for 1,029 and 545 vehicles respectively in the first 11 months of 2013. Chinese CV manufacturer Foton has recently announced plans to build a plant in Uganda. Currently, the firm is awaiting approval from the Ugandan government to commence building the plant, which would produce 100 vehicles a day. It will produce trucks and minibuses in response to the country's growing demand for CVs. This trend is similar to that seen in other markets of the East African Community, where investment in vehicle production has been directed towards the CV segment as industries such as oil and gas develop.
Motorcycles, a cheap alternative to passenger cars, remain the vehicles of choice, with new and used motorcycle sales expected to grow from 109,685 vehicles in 2014 to 139,485 in 2018. Toyota Uganda dominates the new motorcycle market, accounting for 817 out of 890 unit sales over the 11 months to November 2013. The motorcycle production sector is also likely to expand as Kampala, an Indian two-...
The Uganda Autos Reports features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Uganda Autos Reports provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Uganda.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ugandan automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ugandan automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.