Business Monitor International


Uganda Autos Reports

Published 11 August 2014

  • 57 pages
 
$1,295.00
Uganda Autos Reports

The most recent data released by the Ugandan Motor Industry Association show that newly registered vehicles are down 13.4% year-on-year in the first five months of 2014. This has occurred despite an improving inflation and private consumption outlook, government commitment to improve 'productive infrastructure' and the development of Uganda's substantial oil reserves. BMI believes this is largely due to the supply shock effects stemming from the re-introduction of the Pre-Export Verification of Conformity. In light of this, we have downgraded our forecasts over the 2014-2018 period; most notably for the remainder of 2014.

The government's re-introduction of PVoC import restrictions was recently imposed in an effort to improve Uganda's ageing and poor-quality vehicle fleet. The re-introduction of the Pre-Export Verification of Conformity means that traders who fail to comply may lose their trading licence, have their shipments destroyed with the trader covering the costs, and/or risk being closed down.

Commercial vehicles (CVs), in particular pickups and station wagons, are dominating the small new vehicle market, accounting for 487 and 306 vehicles respectively in the first five months of 2013. Chinese CV manufacturer Foton has recently announced plans to build a plant in Uganda. Currently, the firm is awaiting approval from the Ugandan government to commence building the plant, which would produce 100 vehicles a day. It will produce trucks and minibuses in response to the country's growing demand for CVs. This trend is similar to that seen in other markets of the East African Community, where investment in vehicle production has been directed towards the CV segment as industries such as oil and gas develop.

Motorcycles, a cheap alternative to passenger cars, remain the vehicles of choice but have also been hit hard by the added PVoC rules. After a decline in 2014, BMI believes new and used motorcycle sales are expected to regain their composure and grow...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
9
Economic
11
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2018)
14
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2018)
14
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2018)
14
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2018)
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Economic Analysis
21
Table: Uganda - Economic Activity
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk and Reward Ratings
30
Competitive Landscape
31
Company Profile
38
Company Monitor
38
Regional Overview
41
Autos Investment Round-Up: Export Potential Keeps Majors In South Africa
41
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Production Investments
41
Global Industry Overview
43
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
43
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
43
Trucks Give North America A Lift
44
India Brings Relief To BRICs
46
Demographic Forecast
48
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
49
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
50
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
51
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
51
Methodology
52
Industry Forecasts
52
Sector-Specific Methodology
53
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
54
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
55

The Uganda Autos Reports features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Uganda Autos Reports provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Uganda.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ugandan automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ugandan automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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