Business Monitor International


Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 November 2014

  • 102 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   Turkmenistan's growing gas reserves have the country's energy profile on a positive trajectory, as reflected by our forecasts for strong growth in gas production over the coming years. O ur forecast for gas production to reach 108.8bcm per annum by 2018 implies an average growth rate of 7.4% per annum. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas imports by 2020. 

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 243.4 255.2 272.5 291.6 291.8 303.4 315.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 70.8 76.1 82.4 88.7 96.1 101.4 108.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 21.0 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.8 27.5 29.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 151.9 152.7 153.4 196.4 197.4 198.3 257.9
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The main trends and developments in Turkmenistan's oil and gas sector are:

  • Italian energy company Eni's CEO Claudio Descalzi has confirmed that the company is interested in expanding offshore operations in the Caspian Sea during a meeting with Turkmenistan's president Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov. Descalzi and Berdimuhammedov also discussed existing operations and future cooperation opportunities during the meeting. 'Concerning the development of future cooperation, the parties discussed options for gas valorization, agreeing that Eni will conduct a feasibility study in this regard,' according to a note released by Eni.

  • Turkmenistan has secured loans worth USD2.5bn from Japanese and South Korean export credit banks to fund the construction of a petrochemical complex in Turkmenbashi in western Turkmenistan, reports Energy Business...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
15
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
19
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
19
Refining
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
26
Gas Consumption
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
28
Trade - Oil
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
38
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Limited Supportive Policy
41
Regional Minnows Breaking Through
42
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
43
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
43
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Market Overview
48
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
48
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing And Regulation
50
Government Policy
51
International Energy Relations
51
Table: Upstream Projects
53
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
54
Oil Refineries
54
Oil Storage Facilities
55
Oil Terminals/Ports
55
Oil Pipelines
56
Gas Pipelines
56
Table: TAPI Timeline
61
Competitive Landscape
64
Competitive Landscape
64
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
65
Table: Key Upstream Players
65
Table: Downstream Players
65
Company Profile
66
Eni
66
Dragon Oil
69
Other Summaries
73
Regional Overview
76
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Overview
76
CEE Oil Production - Russia Dominates, Caspian Output To Grow
76
CEE Oil Consumption - Regional Demand Outpacing Supply
77
CEE Refining Capacity - Few Bright Spots
78
CEE Natural Gas Production - Caspian Firing Up China
79
CEE Gas Consumption - New Gas Mainly Exported
80
Global Industry Overview
82
Global Energy Market Overview
82
Appendix
88
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
88
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
89
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
92
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
93
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
95
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
95
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels and Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
97
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
97
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
98
Turkmenistan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
100
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
100
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
100
Turkmenistan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
103
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
107
Glossary
109
Table: Glossary Of Terms
109
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Source
113
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
113
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
115
Table: Weighting
116

The Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Turkmenistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkmen oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkmenistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkmen oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkmen oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkmenistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc