Business Monitor International


Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 May 2014

  • 102 pages
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$1,295.00
Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   Turkmenistan's growing gas reserves have the country's energy profile on a positive trajectory, as reflected by our forecasts for strong growth in gas production over the coming years. O ur forecast for gas production to reach 108.8bcm per annum by 2018 implies an average growth rate of 7.4% per annum. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas imports by 2020. 

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 243.4 255.2 272.5 291.6 291.8 303.4 315.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 70.8 76.1 82.4 88.7 96.1 101.4 108.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 21.0 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.8 27.5 29.3
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 151.9 152.7 153.4 196.4 197.4 198.3 257.9
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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The main trends and developments in Turkmenistan's oil and gas sector are:

  • Italian energy company Eni's CEO Claudio Descalzi has confirmed that the company is interested in expanding offshore operations in the Caspian Sea during a meeting with Turkmenistan's president Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov. Descalzi and Berdimuhammedov also discussed existing operations and future cooperation opportunities during the meeting. 'Concerning the development of future cooperation, the parties discussed options for gas valorization, agreeing that Eni will conduct a feasibility study in this regard,' according to a note released by Eni.

  • Turkmenistan has secured loans worth USD2.5bn from Japanese and South Korean export credit banks to fund the construction of a petrochemical complex in Turkmenbashi in western Turkmenistan, reports Energy Business...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Turkmenistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves, 2012-2017
11
Table: Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2012-2017
11
Table: Turkmenistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Table: Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Turkmenistan Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: Turkmenistan Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Turkmenistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Turkmenistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Turkmenistan Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: Turkmenistan Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
23
Revenues/Import Costs
24
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
27
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Growing Technical Challenges
30
Regional Minnows Breaking In
31
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
32
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
32
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Market Overview
38
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
38
Overview/State Role
40
Licensing And Regulation
40
Government Policy
41
International Energy Relations
41
Table: Upstream Projects
47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
48
Oil Refineries
48
Oil Storage Facilities
49
Oil Terminals/Ports
49
Oil Pipelines
50
Gas Pipelines
50
Table: TAPI Timeline
54
Competitive Landscape
58
Competitive Landscape
58
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
59
Table: Key Upstream Players
59
Table: Downstream Players
59
Company Profile
60
Eni
60
Dragon Oil
63
Other Summaries
67
Regional Overview
70
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
70
Trade Dynamic To Persist But Growth Moves East
72
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
73
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
75
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
77
South Stream Looking Weak
78
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
78
Shale Gas Showdown
79
Global Industry Overview
82
Global Energy Market Overview
82
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
84
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
85
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
86
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
88
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
88
Appendix
91
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
91
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
98
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
99
Glossary
100
Table: Glossary Of Terms
100
Methodology
102
Industry Forecast Methodology
102
Source
104
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
104
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
106
Table: Weighting
107

The Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Turkmenistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkmen oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkmenistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkmen oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkmen oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkmenistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc