We forecast real GDP growth in Turkey of 1.5% and 3.0% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, well below consensus estimates of 2.3% and 3.5%. A tightening of global liquidity and domestic credit conditions has led to a visible slowdown in domestic demand, and we expect weak private consumption to be the main driver of slower growth, with net exports propping up total economic activity.
For 2014, just as like quarter, we continue to forecast that the Port of Ambarli will experience the highest year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage throughput growth rate with growth of just under 10% anticipated (9.70%). This annual growth will very much outshine domestic rivals, such as the Port of Izmir (2.00%), Port of Derice (3.70%) and Port of Haydarpasa (4.33%).
Headline Industry Data
2014 port of Ambarli tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 9.70%; over the medium term to 2018 we project average annual growth of 7.58%.
2014 port of Ambarli container throughput is forecast to grow 4.56%; over the medium term we project annual average growth of 6.02%.
2014 total trade growth forecast at 3.95%, down from an estimated 4.33% in 2013.
Key Industry Trends
Investment In Turkish Ports On The Agenda: Investment opportunities in the Turkish ports industry could amount to some USD3.5bn going forward, the attendees at the Port Finance International finance in Istanbul in May 2014 were told. Mass privatisation of the country's ports is proposed with bid announcements expected for the Izmir container port and the Inebolu port and shipyard.
Yilport Acquires GCT In Sweden: Turkish port operator Yilport is exploring the possibility of expanding its presence in the Baltics, with the acquisition of a container terminal in Sweden proving the operator's intent, it was reported at the end of May 2014. Yilport acquired an 80% stake in Gävle Container Terminal (GCT), with the Gävle municipality retaining the other 20% and the terminal is described by Yilport as having 'highly strategic value',...