Growth To Drop Down A Notch In 2014
BMI is becoming more cautious about Turkish economic growth. We have reduced our GDP growth forecast for 2014 to 2.6% (down from 3.1% previously) as global credit markets tighten, forcing the country, which has been relying on financial account inflows to cover massive external imbalances, to hike up interest rates so as to continue attracting the necessary foreign capital. Slowing private consumption and investment growth will be only partially offset by government spending and a rising contribution from net exports. We have, however, increased our estimate for 2013 GDP growth to 3.3% (up from 2.8% previously) on the strength of a better-than expected performance in Q313.
Throughput at Turkey's largest container port, the port of Ambarli, is set to increase in terms of both tonnage and box volumes in 2014, in line with the country's slower but still positive macroeconomic outlook. Bulk tonnage growth will ease back a little on 2013 levels, but container traffic will accelerate marginally on the previous year, reflecting investment and capacity expansion.
Over the medium term, we project further growth at Ambarli and a number of country's other ports. As BMI previously highlighted, the privatisation of Turkey's port sector has been followed by a flood of investment, with a number of projects underway to boost capacity at the nation's ports and the likes of DP World and APM Terminals entering the country's container market.
Headline Industry Data
2014 port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput forecast to grow 9.7%; over the medium term to 2018 we project average annual growth of 7.6%.
2014 port of Ambarli container throughput forecast to grow 8.7%; over the medium term we project annual average growth of 7.3%.
2014 total trade growth forecast at 5.6%, up from an estimated 4.3% in 2013.
Key Industry Trends
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