Business Monitor International


Turkey Shipping Report

Published 15 April 2014

  • 107 pages
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$1,295.00
Turkey Shipping Report

We have been below consensus on Turkey's medium-term real GDP growth outlook since mid-2013, based on our view that the country's growth model, driven by a huge reliance on foreign borrowing to fund a rapid expansion of domestic credit, would no longer be viable in light of tightening global liquidity conditions. While signs of easing domestic demand were beginning to emerge by end-2013, destabilising political developments have exacerbated a downturn in investor sentiment, consumer and business confidence. Following an estimated 3.6% growth in 2013, we now forecast real GDP to expand by 1.5% and 3.0% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, well below consensus estimates of 2.3% and 4.0%.

The effect of lira depreciation in boosting export competitiveness, in conjunction with accelerating growth in the European Union, implies a fairly upbeat outlook for export growth in 2014. The European Union accounted for 41.5% of Turkey's total export market in 2013, concentrated in Germany and the UK where we expect domestic demand to play a more prominent role in economic growth.

However, Turkey's high import dependency, primarily a result of a substantial energy deficit, will act to mitigate potential competitiveness gains. Higher input costs on the back of rising inflation and lira depreciation will have to be absorbed in firm's profit margins, or passed on to final export prices.

In 2014, we expect the Port of Ambarli to experience the highest year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage throughput growth rate with growth of just under 10% anticipated. Although this is below the two consecutive years of double-digit y-o-y growth at the port, it is still set to perform better than domestic rivals the Port of Izmir (3.00%), Port of Derice (4.00%) and Port of Haydarpasa (4.84%).

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 port of Ambarli general and liquid bulk cargo tonnage throughput forecast to grow 9.70%; over the medium term to 2018 we project average annual growth of 7.58%.

  • 2014 port of Ambarli container...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Port Of Ambarli Throughput
15
Table: Major Port Data, 2011-2018
20
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012
23
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
24
Market Overview
25
Turkey Container Shipping Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Turkey Company Profile
33
Turkon Line
33
Shipping - Global Industry View
34
Box Demand: Container Outlook Strengthening In 2014
34
Box Supply: Slowing New Vessel Deliveries To Decrease Overcapacity Pressure
51
Table: Q313 Container Vessel Deliveries
52
Table: 2013 Mega Vessel Orders
53
Box Rates: Rate Push In Preparation For 2014
57
Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
64
Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
64
Global Company Strategy
65
Maersk Line
65
Mediterranean Shipping Company
73
CMA CGM
79
Evergreen Line
86
COSCO Container Lines Company
92
Macroeconomic Forecasts
98
Economic Analysis
98
Demographic Forecast
104
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
105
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
106
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
107
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
107

The Turkey Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Turkey.

BMI's Turkey Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Turkey.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Turkey through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc