Business Monitor International


Turkey Power Report

Published 04 December 2014

  • 64 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Turkey Power Report

BMI View:   Ove rall, we maintain our view that   Turkey's position in the region as a key power market over the coming decade will get increasingly more important , accounting for nearly one- fifth of t he CEE's total capacity by 2023 .   Private investor interest in Turkey's power market is expected to continue to attract interest from a host of international companies and it has yet again maintained its position in our Power Risk/Reward Index (RRIs) as the most attractive market in CEE . T here is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as the government continues to strive for greater energy security and to lessen its reliance on its import-heavy thermal electricity generation mix, which has already played a fundamental role in deepening Turkey's current account deficit.

Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector is complicated by the county's precarious economic and political position. The need to reduce its reliance on foreign capital, narrow external deficits and rebalance away from private consumption towards more domestic saving and investment will necessitate a period slower trend growth. Although the government and central bank have clearly demonstrated an aversion to allowing rebalancing to play out through lower GDP growth rates in the medium term, we believe this is simply delaying the inevitable. Risks of a more pronounced and rapid fall in headline growth remain high in light of the deterioration in the global macroeconomic outlook for emerging markets that has seen investor confidence suffer and capital inflows dry up. As it stands, our country risk team forecast real GDP growth to be significantly slower over the next few years than the 9.0% average reading recorded in 2010-2011.

That said, we are retaining a cautious, but positive long-term view on the sector, based on the fact that finding a solution to existing energy-related imbalances is central to the performance...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Turkey Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2017)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2018-2023)
16
Electricity Consumption
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2017)
28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2018-2023)
28
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
29
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2017)
29
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2018-2023)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2017)
29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2018-2023)
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
31
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: Regional Overview
36
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Rewards
37
Risks
38
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation and Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
41
Pricing
42
Turkey Power Projects Database
43
Table: Major Projects - Power
43
Competitive Landscape
47
Regional Overview
50
CEE Power Regional Overview
50
Glossary
57
Table: Glossary Of Terms
57
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
61
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Turkey Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Turkey Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Turkey's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc