Business Monitor International


Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 19 May 2014

  • 126 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Data released by the Turkish drugmaker s association for 2013 sales corresponds with our own forecasts. We have also modified our pharmaceutical sales forecast for 2014 and beyond to reflect the volatile exchange rate situation. We now see Turkey's lustre as an emerging pharmaceutical market regressing over the medium term. We believe that the business environment will continue to impede the industry and see very little scope for the central government to enact business-friendly reform in the sector. In sum, we believe 2014 will be another disappointing and challenging year for the industry .

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: TRY17.16bn (USD9.00bn) in 2013 to TRY18.79bn (USD8.37bn) in 2014; +9.5% in local currency and -7.1% US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: TRY108.64bn (USD57.01bn) in 2013 to TRY118.15bn (USD52.63bn) in 2014; +8.8% in local currency and -7.7% US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Turkey's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q314 is 55.9, up from 54.0 in the previous quarter. The country is ranked the fifth most attractive business environment out of the 20 markets surveyed in Emerging Europe, improving from ninth position in the previous quarter. Turkey's large drug market, coupled with the sector's long-term growth potential, means that the country scores considerably higher than the average for the region on this indicator. In terms of risks, several rounds of pricing reforms mean that the country scores less favourably, and below the regional average for this indicator.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The Turkish government is aggressively amending laws and introducing incentives to boost localisation of R&D within the country. The government is hoping to reduce the country's considerable trade deficit by establishing itself as an export base and R&D hub. Relative to other offshoring hubs such as India and China, we do not believe the pull factors for Turkey are strong enough to incentivise R&D...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2010-2018)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2018)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Turkey 2012-2018)
29
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Table: Turkey - GDP By Expenditure
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Turkey Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Rewards
46
Risks
47
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Healthcare Sector
51
Healthcare Insurance
52
Healthcare Infrastructure
52
Healthcare Financing
54
Research & Development
55
Clinical Trials
57
Regulatory Development
59
Intellectual Property Regime
60
Market Access Issues
63
Pricing Regime
64
Table: Turkish Pharmaceutical Pricing Decrees
66
Reimbursement Regime
67
Table: Pharmacist Discount Related To Annual Sales Revenue (VAT Excluded)
68
Competitive Landscape
69
Pharmaceutical Sector
69
Domestic Industry
70
Foreign Industry
71
Company Activity
72
Wholesale
73
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
74
Company Profile
76
Abdi -brahim
76
Eczaciba-i Healthcare
80
Sanovel Pharmaceuticals
84
EastPharma (Deva)
87
Mustafa Nevzat Ilac Sanayi (MN) Pharmaceuticals
91
Novartis
95
Pfizer
97
Sanofi
100
GlaxoSmithKline
103
Roche
106
AstraZeneca
109
Bayer
111
Merck & Co
113
Demographic Forecast
115
Demographic Outlook
115
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
116
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
117
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
118
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
118
Glossary
119
Methodology
121
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
121
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
121
Notes On Methodology
122
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Ratings Overview
124
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
124
Indicator Weightings
125

The Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc