Business Monitor International


Turkey Oil & Gas Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 109 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Turkey Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Turkey will remain heavily dependent upon oil and gas imports for the foreseeable future. However, its role as a critical energy transit hub between Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean , the Middle East, the Caspian and Russia provides it with a unique form of leverage and makes it a key player in the global energy market. The decision to proceed with the TAP and TANAP natural gas pipelines cements Turkey's position as a critical transit country , and also secures 6bcm of new supplies for Turkey's domestic market. There is also upside potential to the country's domestic energy production in the form of Black Sea reserves and unconventional development , although it remains too early for either to be factored into our forecasts. M ounting investment into exploration activities underscores the government's growing commitment to increasing its own domestic resource base.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

  • Turkey's improving relationship with Iraq is providing a potentially major new source of imports. Iraq already exports oil to Turkey via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline; however, new pipelines connecting the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan directly with Turkey have begun pumping oil to Ceyhan and could deliver as much as 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) of oil by the end of Q1 2014 and 300,000b/d by the end of 2014. Turkey has stipulated that a go-ahead from Baghdad is required before oil is officially exported. Furthermore, a 10bcm gas supply agreement was made between the Turkish Government and Genel Energy, which owns the 100bcm Miran gas field in Kurdistan, increasing prospects for a new gas pipeline connection.

  • A final investment decision was made on phase II of the Shah Deniz project in Azerbaijan. Turkey will be a core transit country, responsible for delivering about 10bcm of gas to Europe via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) which will connect to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Table: Turkey Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Turkey Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
16
Table: Turkey Oil Production And Trade Data, 2012-2017
16
Table: Turkey Oil Production And Trade Data, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Turkey Gas Production, Consumption And Trade Data, 2012-2017
18
Table: Turkey Gas Production, Consumption And Trade Data, 2018-2023
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Refining Capacity, Production And Consumption Data, 2012-2017
22
Table: Refining Capacity, Production And Consumption Data, 2018-2023
23
Table: Operational Turkish Refineries
24
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
27
East Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
27
Russia: Large Resource Base But Limited Opportunities
29
Regional Minnows Breaking In
31
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
32
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
32
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Turkey - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Turkey Upstream Ratings
36
Turkey Downstream Ratings
36
Market Overview
38
Turkey Energy Market Overview
38
Table: Turkey's Five-Year Energy Strategy
38
International Energy Relations
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
43
Oil Refineries
43
Table: Refineries In Turkey
43
Service Stations
45
Oil Terminals/Ports
45
Oil Pipelines
45
LNG Terminals
47
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
47
Gas Pipelines
47
Competitive Landscape
51
Competitive Landscape Summary
51
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
52
Table: Key Upstream Players
53
Company Profile
54
T-rkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
54
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T-pras)
59
OMV Petrol Ofisi
63
Other Summaries
67
Regional Overview
74
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
74
A Mutually Dependent Relationship
76
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
77
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
78
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
80
South Stream Looking Weak
81
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
81
Shale Gas Showdown
82
Global Industry Overview
85
Appendix
92
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
92
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
98
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
99
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
100
Glossary
101
Table: Glossary Of Terms
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Source
105
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
105
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
107
Table: Weighting
109

The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc