Business Monitor International


Turkey Oil & Gas Report

Published 16 May 2014

  • 109 pages
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$1,295.00
Turkey Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Turkey will remain heavily dependent upon oil and gas imports for the foreseeable future. However, its role as a critical energy transit hub between Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean , the Middle East, the Caspian and Russia provides it with a unique form of leverage and makes it a key player in the global energy market. The decision to proceed with the TAP and TANAP natural gas pipelines cements Turkey's position as a critical transit country , and also secures 6bcm of new supplies for Turkey's domestic market. There is also upside potential to the country's domestic energy production in the form of Black Sea resources and unconventional development s , although it remains too early for either to be factored into our forecasts. M ounting investment into exploration activities underscores the government's growing commitment to increasing its own domestic resource base.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

  • The SOCAR-led STAR refinery received a further boost after reportedly agreeing a further USD500mn in financing in March 2014. Turkey is expected to be one of the few countries in Europe to see an increase in refining capacity with the STAR facility looking increasing likely to move to the construction phase.

  • Turkey's improving relationship with Iraq is providing a potential major new source of imports. However, a new pipeline connecting the region of Kurdistan directly with Turkey is now in place, though due to this begin separate from Baghdad controlled monitoring stations exports have been deemed illegal. . Turkey has stipulated that a go-ahead from Baghdad is required before oil is officially exported, yet the wait for an agreement between Erbil and Baghdad is delaying fuel import diversification efforts.

  • In November 2013, a 10bcm gas supply agreement was made between the Turkish Government and Genel Energy, which owns the 100bcm Miran gas field in Kurdistan, increasing...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Table: Turkey Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Turkey Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Turkey Oil Production And Trade Data, 2012-2017
15
Table: Turkey Oil Production And Trade Data, 2018-2023
15
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Turkey Gas Production, Consumption And Trade Data, 2012-2017
17
Table: Turkey Gas Production, Consumption And Trade Data, 2018-2023
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Refining Capacity, Production And Consumption Data, 2012-2017
21
Table: Refining Capacity, Production And Consumption Data, 2018-2023
22
Table: Operational Turkish Refineries
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
26
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Growing Technical Challenges
29
Regional Minnows Breaking In
30
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
31
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
31
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Turkey - Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Turkey Upstream Ratings
35
Turkey Downstream Ratings
36
Market Overview
37
Turkey Energy Market Overview
37
Table: Turkey's Five-Year Energy Strategy
37
International Energy Relations
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries In Turkey
42
Service Stations
44
Oil Terminals/Ports
44
Oil Pipelines
44
LNG Terminals
46
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
46
Gas Pipelines
46
Competitive Landscape
49
Competitive Landscape Summary
49
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
50
Table: Key Upstream Players
50
Company Profile
51
T-rkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
51
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T-pras)
56
OMV Petrol Ofisi
59
Other Summaries
62
Regional Overview
71
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
71
Trade Dynamic To Persist But Growth Moves East
73
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
74
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
76
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
78
South Stream Looking Weak
79
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
79
Shale Gas Showdown
80
Global Industry Overview
83
Global Energy Market Overview
83
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
85
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
86
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
87
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
89
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
89
Appendix
92
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
92
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
99
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
99
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
100
Turkey - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
101
Table: Turkey Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
101
Table: Turkey Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
102
Table: Turkey Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
103
Table: Turkey Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
104
Table: Turkey Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
105
Table: Turkey Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
106
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
114
Table: Weighting
115

The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc