BMI View: Despite relatively weak growth to be expected over coming months , the medium-term outlook for Turkey's metals sector remains promising due to strong demand from the domestic construction and autos sectors. Near-term headwinds are likely to include currency weakness making imports of materials more expensive and weak global steel prices sq ueezing steel-makers' margins. An uptick in political risk in Turkey also presents a key downside risk.
Over the medium-term we forecast Turkey's total steel production to grow from 34.7mnt in 2013 to 44.6mnt in 2018. We expect growth to average 5.2% y-o-y over 2014-2018, as we predict a recovery from the negative growth seen during 2013, which was a result of weak global steel prices and a weak lira pushing up the cost of imports of materials.
We expect to see the share prices of Turkey's two largest steel producers, Erdemir and Kardemir, continue to outperform following steady output growth over 2013. In July 2013 Standard and Poor's raised Erdemir's long-term corporate credit rating from 'B' to 'B+' reflecting the company's strong operating performance.
| Solid Growth Outlook |
|Turkey - Steel Output & Growth|
Downside risks to our five-year forecasts include subdued demand from EU states, depreciation of the Turkish lira raising production costs, political unrest in the country and a global weakening of steel prices. Although we see the negative growth over 2013 as a temporary slowdown in a larger growth picture, weak steel prices will continue to prevent a more rapid growth rate.
The Turkey Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Turkey.
BMI's Turkey Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Turkey.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Global Metals Market Overview
Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).