Business Monitor International


Turkey Metals Report

Published 06 November 2014

  • 48 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Turkey Metals Report

BMI View: Despite relatively weak growth to be expected over the coming months , the medium-term outlook for Turkey's metals sector remains promising due to strong demand from the domestic construction and autos sectors. Near-term headwinds are likely to include currency weakness making imports of materials more expensive and weak global steel prices sq ueezing steel-makers' margins. Long-term political risk in Turkey also presents a key downside risk.

Over the medium-term we forecast Turkey's total steel production to grow from 34.7mnt in 2013 to 44.6mnt in 2018. We expect growth to average 5.2% y-o-y over 2014-2018, as we predict a recovery from the negative growth seen during 2013, which was a result of weak global steel prices and a weak lira pushing up the cost of imports of materials.

We expect to see the share prices of Turkey's two largest steel producers, Erdemir and Kardemir, continue to outperform following steady capacity and output growth over 2013. 

Solid Growth Outlook
Turkey - Steel Production & % Growth

Downside risks to our five-year forecasts include subdued demand from EU states, depreciation of the Turkish lira raising production costs, political unrest in the country and a global weakening of steel prices. Although we see Turkey's contraction in steel production over 2013 as a temporary slowdown in a larger growth picture, weak steel prices will continue to prevent a more rapid growth rate. 

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Stronger Growth Ahead
11
Consumption
12
Production
13
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Turkey 2010-2018)
16
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Turkey 2005-2012)
16
Regulatory Development
17
Political Risk
17
Economic Risk
17
Business Environment Risk
18
Anti-Corruption Drive Paying Off
18
Tax Regime
18
Table: Political Overview
19
Commodities Forecast
21
Commodity Strategy
21
Ferrous Metals
21
Non-Ferrous Metals:
24
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
24
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
25
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
27
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
32
Steel: Prices To Head Higher From 2016
32
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
32
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
32
Long-Term Outlook
33
Production: Chinese Rationalisation Measures To Bite
34
Consumption: Slowing Demand Growth On The Horizon
35
Burgeoning Chinese Exports Will Not Last
36
Eurozone Growth Downgrade Highlights Long Road To Recovery
37
Risks To Price Forecast
37
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
38
Competitive Landscape
39
Table: Turkey - Steel Mills
39
Table: Turkey - Largest Listed Metal Producers, Key Financial Metrics
40
Company Profile
41
Erdemir
41
Company Strategy
43
Table: Erdemir - Financial Data
43
Kardemir
45
Company Strategy
46
Table: Kardemir - Financial Data
47
Methodology
48
Cross Checks
48

The Turkey Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Turkey.

BMI's Turkey Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Turkey.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkey metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Turkey through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

A comprehensive summary of the impact and implications of the latest regulatory developments and key forecast indicators covering metals production, consumption and upside/downside risks to our outlook. The Metals SWOT analysis outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Industry Forecast

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Steel: Steel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Aluminium: Aluminium consumption production & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Copper: Refined copper production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Zinc: Refined zinc production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Lead: Refined Lead production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).
  • Nickel: Refined nickel production & consumption (‘000 tonnes).
  • Tin: Refined tin production, consumption & balance (‘000 tonnes).

Regulatory Development

Details of the industry regulatory framework, relevant key legislation and environmental standards that impact the metals industry. The regulatory developments section provides analysis of the overall regulatory burden, the tax regime (including income tax rates), bureaucratic framework, corruption and a country specific political overview. Details of the industry regulatory framework provide information on relevant key legislation and regulations that will impact the metals industry.

Commodities Forecast

Provides in depth coverage and forecasting of steel prices and includes BMI’s core view of what to expect in upcoming months. Within the monthly metals update, BMI provides performance data and key forecasts for select commodities, including prices for aluminium, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, nickel, palladium, platinum, silver, steel (MEPS Carbon Steel), tin and zinc.

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses of detailed financial data for key listed metals firms, ranked in order of market cap (USDmn).

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive position and short to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects. Details of products and services provide a full overview of each company’s operations.

Sources

The Metals Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc