Business Monitor International


Turkey Metals Report

Published 13 May 2014

  • 47 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Turkey Metals Report

BMI View: Despite relatively weak growth to be expected over coming months , the medium-term outlook for Turkey's metals sector remains promising due to strong demand from the domestic construction and autos sectors. Near-term headwinds are likely to include currency weakness making imports of materials more expensive and weak global steel prices sq ueezing steel-makers' margins. An uptick in political risk in Turkey also presents a key downside risk.

Over the medium-term we forecast Turkey's total steel production to grow from 34.7mnt in 2013 to 44.6mnt in 2018. We expect growth to average 5.2% y-o-y over 2014-2018, as we predict a recovery from the negative growth seen during 2013, which was a result of weak global steel prices and a weak lira pushing up the cost of imports of materials.

We expect to see the share prices of Turkey's two largest steel producers, Erdemir and Kardemir, continue to outperform following steady output growth over 2013. In July 2013 Standard and Poor's raised Erdemir's long-term corporate credit rating from 'B' to 'B+' reflecting the company's strong operating performance.

Solid Growth Outlook
Turkey - Steel Output & Growth

Downside risks to our five-year forecasts include subdued demand from EU states, depreciation of the Turkish lira raising production costs, political unrest in the country and a global weakening of steel prices. Although we see the negative growth over 2013 as a temporary slowdown in a larger growth picture, weak steel prices will continue to prevent a more rapid growth rate.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Metals SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Steel: Near-Term Headwinds For Sector
11
Consumption
12
Production
13
Table: Turkey - Steel Production & Consumption (kt)
16
Table: Turkey - Steel Industry Historical Data (kt)
16
Regulatory Development
17
Political Risk Heightened
17
Anti-Corruption Drive Paying Off
17
Tax Regime
18
Table: Political Overview
18
Commodities Forecast
20
Steel Price Forecast
20
Table: BMI Steel Forecast
20
Short-Term Outlook
20
Core View
21
Global Steel Glut To Persist
21
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term
22
Consumption: Growth Decelerating
24
Excessive Chinese Exports
25
Growing Arbitrage Between East & West
26
Risks To Price Outlook
26
Table: Steel Data & Forecasts
27
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region & Product, US$/tonne (ave)
27
Commodity Strategy
28
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
29
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
31
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
32
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
33
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
34
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
35
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
37
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
39
Competitive Landscape
40
Table: Turkey - Steel Mills
40
Table: Turkey - Largest Listed Metal Producers, Key Financial Metrics
41
Company Profile
42
Erdemir
42
Company Strategy
44
Table: Erdemir - Financial Data
44
Kardemir
46
Company Strategy
47
Table: Kardemir - Financial Data
48
Methodology
49
Cross Checks
49

The Turkey Metals Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data for steel, aluminium and other major globally-traded commodities. Our analysis covers all primary indicators, including production, exports and price, with our forecasts underpinned by Business Monitor International (BMI)'s macroeconomists global economic outlook. The report analyses trends and prospects and critically evaluates latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Turkey.

BMI's Turkey Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the metals industry in Turkey.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent metals industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkey metals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Turkey through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company profiles on your competitors and peers.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering metals production and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's metals sector, business environment, politics and economics, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Global Metals Market Overview

Global demand, supply and price forecasts for steel and aluminium, as well as gold, copper and tin, drawing on both our industry expertise and our macroeconomic and financial market team's long-term global demand forecasts and shorter-term market views.

Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Production (`000 tonnes, US$bn), consumption (`000 tonnes, US$bn), exports (`000 tonnes, US$bn); prices (US$/tonne), and growth (%).

Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for headline country macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), industrial production index (% y-o-y average) and unemployment (% of labour force).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc