Business Monitor International


Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report

Published 20 May 2014

  • 116 pages
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$1,295.00
Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The outlook for the oil and gas sector in Trinidad and Tobago remains promising, with strong interest in recent onshore and offshore bidding rounds and encouraging exploration results. We expect gas production to grow over the course of our forecast period, but we expect the rate of increase to moderate from 2017. Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will remain under pressure as the country continues to adjust to changing realities in the global gas export marketplace. The country has adjusted to falling demand for LNG in the US by securing new markets in Europe, the Americas and most importantly Asia, where the greatest amount of growth is expected. In addition to challenges in securing new customers, difficult geology may prove problematic for more dramatic growth in exports despite efforts by the government to incentivise new investment with improved fiscal terms.

The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:

  • We will be closely watching the outcome of T&T's onshore and offshore licensing rounds, which we see as key signals indicating the level of foreign interest in the country's acreage and thus crucial to determining long-term production potential. The 2012 deepwater licensing round was declared a success, having attracted 12 bids for five of the six blocks on offer. Bidding companies included BG Group, Repsol, Centrica, BHP Billiton, Cairn, Kosmos and Elenito T&T. Regulators revealed that 11 bids from 6 different companies were received in the onshore bidding round, with the results announced as follows: Touchstone Exploration awarded the Ortorie Block, Lease Operators awarded the Rio Claro Block and Range Resources awarded the St Mary's Block.

  • Crude, natural gas liquids (NGL) and other liquids production declined significantly in recent years, falling from 178,236 barrels per day (b/d) in 2006 to 118,950b/d in 2012. This was primarily due to declining output from T&T's ageing oil...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
14
Table: 2013/14 Budget Incentives
17
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Gas Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Gas Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
LNG
22
Refining And Oil Products Trade
23
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
23
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
24
Risks To Outlook
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
30
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
36
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Trinidad & Tobago - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Market Overview
39
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview
39
Overview/State Role
39
Licensing And Regulation
39
Government Policy
41
Licensing Rounds
41
Table: Major Upstream Projects
45
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
46
Oil Refineries
46
Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago
46
Service Stations
47
Oil Storage Facilities
47
Oil Terminals/ Ports/Pipelines
47
LNG Terminals
47
Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago
47
Gas Storage
48
Gas Pipelines
48
Competitive Landscape
50
Competitive Landscape Summary
50
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players
51
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Table: Key Downstream Players
52
Company Profile
53
Petroleum Company Of T&T (Petrotrin)
53
National Gas Company Of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC)
58
Trinidad & Tobago National Petroleum Marketing Company (NP)
61
BPTT
64
BG Trinidad & Tobago
69
BHP Petroleum
74
Centrica
77
EOG Resources
80
Other Summaries
83
Regional Overview
89
Latin America Overview
89
Global Industry Overview
99
Global Energy Market Overview
99
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
101
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
102
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
103
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
105
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
105
Appendix
108
Latin America - Regional Appendix
108
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
108
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
113
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
114
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
114
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
115
Trinidad & Tobago - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
116
Table: Trinidad and Tobago Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
116
Table: Trinidad and Tobago Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
117
Table: Trinidad and Tobago Refined Petroleum Production, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
118
Table: Trinidad and Tobago Refined Petroleum Production, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
119
Table: Trinidad and Tobago Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
121
Table: Trinidad and Tobago Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2017-2023
122
Glossary
123
Table: Glossary Of Terms
123
Methodology
125
Industry Forecast Methodology
125
Source
127
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
127
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
129
Table: Weighting
130

The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Trinidadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Trinidadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Trinidad & Tobago.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc