Business Monitor International


Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report

Published 30 January 2014

  • 116 pages
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$1,295.00
Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We have modestly revised up our average hydrocarbon production growth forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago (T&T), from 0.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the next decade to 1.2% y-o-y for oil, and from 1.3% y-o-y to 1.4% y-o-y for natural gas. There are still significant risks, including the mounting technical difficulty and expense involved in the discovery and production of T&T's oil and gas, as well as a more competitive market. Indeed, these factors account for our still relatively tempered growth forecasts. That said, increasingly aggressive steps by the government to incentivise hydrocarbon production, such as favourable fiscal and contractual terms for companies, seem to have begun luring investment back to T&T's oil and gas sector. We note that January - with the announcement of the 2013 onshore bidding results due as well as the closure of the 2013 deepwater licensing round - looks set to be a key month which could further solidify the trend of greater foreign interest or represent a sharp disappointment for the government.

The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:

  • We will be closely watching the outcome of T&T's onshore and offshore licensing rounds, which we see as key signals indicating the level of foreign interest in the country's acreage and thus crucial to determining long-term production potential. The 2012 deepwater licensing round was declared a success, having attracted 12 bids for five of the six blocks on offer. Bidding companies included BG Group, Repsol, Centrica, BHP Billiton, Cairn, Kosmos and Elenito T&T. That said, January 2014 will be a key month for T&T. The results of the 2013 onshore round will be released, with preliminary reports suggesting that the government has received 11 bids for the three blocks. Further, the end of the month will see the deadline for the submission of bids for the 2013 deepwater round.

  • Crude, natural gas liquids (NGL) and other liquids production...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Oil And Gas Reserves
9
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
9
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
10
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
12
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
12
Table: 2013/14 Budget Incentives
15
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Gas Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Gas Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
18
LNG
21
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
22
Risks To Outlook
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
27
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
30
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Trinidad & Tobago - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Market Overview
34
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview
34
Overview/State Role
34
Licensing And Regulation
34
Government Policy
35
Licensing Rounds
36
Table: Major Upstream Projects
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago
41
Service Stations
41
Oil Storage Facilities
42
Oil Terminals/ Ports/Pipelines
42
LNG Terminals
42
Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago
42
Gas Storage
43
Gas Pipelines
43
Competitive Landscape
45
Competitive Landscape Summary
45
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players
47
Table: Key Upstream Players
47
Table: Key Downstream Players
48
Company Profile
49
Petroleum Company Of T&T (Petrotrin)
49
National Gas Company Of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC)
55
Trinidad & Tobago National Petroleum Marketing Company (NP)
58
BPTT
61
BG Trinidad & Tobago
66
BHP Petroleum
71
Centrica
74
EOG Resources
77
Other Summaries
80
Regional Overview
85
Latin America Overview
85
Global Industry Overview
93
Appendix
100
Latin America - Regional Appendix
100
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d
100
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
106
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
106
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
107
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
114
Table: Weighting
116

The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Trinidadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Trinidadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Trinidad & Tobago.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc