Business Monitor International


Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report

Published 28 May 2014

  • 33 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report

Core Views:

  • Real GDP growth in Trinidad & Tobago will rise to 2.6% in 2014, up from the central bank's estimate of 1.6% in 2013, as the country's energy sector recovers from maintenance delays that weighed on economic activity in Q313. Moreover, low interest rates will continue to bolster household consumption, while public investment in infrastructure will see stronger growth in the construction sector.

  • A recent spike in violent crime in Trinidad & Tobago indicates that security problems will continue to negatively affect the country's generally robust business environment. Indeed, we believe that crime could continue to rise in the coming months, with the potential to dampen foreign investment and tourist arrivals, weighing on economic growth and further challenging the ruling coalition's popularity ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2015.

  • We forecast a widening of T&T's current account surplus in 2014, due to stronger goods exports on the back of a return to full capacity in the energy sector following maintenance projects at key downstream energy plants in 2012 and 2013. Notwithstanding risks stemming from a recent spike in crime, we also believe that foreign investment is likely to increase, narrowing the financial and capital account deficit.

  • We believe that a moderate acceleration in real GDP growth in Trinidad & Tobago will see the central bank hike its benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25% during the second half of 2014 in order to address strengthening demand-side inflationary pressures. Moreover, we believe that the central bank will raise interest rates in order to help shield T&T from an increase in foreign capital outflows as US treasury yields rise.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have adjusted our 2013 and 2014 current account forecasts to factor in weaker energy-sector output in H213, owing to temporary maintenance projects at two key downstream plants, although we expect production of liquefied natural gas to...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Ruling Coalition Likely To Face Stiff Challenge In 2015 Elections
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
11
Economic Activity
12
Improving Business Confidence To See Economic Recovery Gain Steam
12
Table: Economic Activity
12
Fiscal Policy
14
Budget Deficit To Peak In 2014
14
Table: Fiscal Policy
14
Monetary Policy
16
Rising Core Inflation To Prompt Rate Hikes By Year-End
16
Table: Monetary Policy
16
Exchange Rate Policy
18
TTD: Sideways Trading Through 2014
18
Table: Exchange Rate
18
Table: CURRENCY FORECAST
18
Balance Of Payments
19
External Position To Strengthen On Robust Export Performance
19
Table: Current Account
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Trinidad & Tobago Economy To 2023
23
Major Challenges Remain
23
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Business Environment
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
25
Business Environment Outlook
26
Institutions
26
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
26
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
27
Infrastructure
28
Table: Labour Force Quality
28
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
29
Operational Risk
30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
31
Global Outlook
31
Growth Increasingly Polarised
31
Table: Global Assumptions
31
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
32
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
32
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
33

The Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Trinidad & Tobago and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Trinidad & Tobago's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Trinidad & Tobago's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • ContextualiseThe Trinidad & Tobago's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Trinidad & Tobago, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Trinidadian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Trinidad & Tobago through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Trinidad & Tobago Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Trinidad & Tobago and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Trinidad & Tobago, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Trinidad & Tobago over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Trinidad & Tobago country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Trinidadian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Trinidad & Tobago.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Trinidad & Tobago's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Trinidad & Tobago's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for he Trinidad & Tobago, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Trinidad & Tobago's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express