BMI View : As tight fiscal budgets continue to restrict medicine sales in developed markets (primarily Europe, but also the US, and to a lesser extent Japan, Australia and Canada), pharmaceutical companies that have a strong presence in emerging markets will continue to benefit from the growing demand for medicines in these ' non-traditional ' markets. However, risks exist in emerging markets - including industry specific concerns (such as low per-capita spending, poor access to healthcare facilities and a lack of adherence to intellectual property laws) and those emanating from the state's political/economic profile (such as high inflation) that will pose as risks to investment . As the end of 2013 approaches, we look forward to 2014 and identify pharmaceuticals markets that will present the most opportunity and risk in the next 12 months.
Multinational pharmaceutical companies will continue to capitalise on Latin America's increasing demand for advanced medicines in 2014. However, as they deepen their ventures in the region, major drugmakers are more exposed than ever to local political and macroeconomic changes. Sustained success will come from more proactive approaches to understand and embrace local trends and developments in each individual market.
As governments focus on meeting debt reduction targets, we believe the pharmaceutical industry will remain a focus for cost containment in 2014, especially because of the relative ease with which governments can target the sector, rather than pursuing less politically friendly cuts such as reducing the number of hospital beds. While governments have implemented harsh measures such as price cuts on medicines in previous years, in 2014, we believe growth in the region's pharmaceutical market will be restricted as a result of government efforts to ensure cost effective pricing and rational prescribing of medicines, and a shift towards greater patient contribution towards healthcare...