Business Monitor International

Thailand Tourism Report

Published 18 February 2014

  • 62 pages
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Thailand Tourism Report

BMI View: BMI expects growth across a range of key indicators in the Thai tourism market throughout our forecast period. Despite continuing political unrest in the capital, Bangkok, we expect an increase in the number of visitors overall, with growth concentrated in traditionally popular beach destinations such as Phuket, or mountain resorts in the north of the country, in Chiang Mai.

Several years of positive GDP growth have boosted the number of outbound travellers, with the number of outbound travellers expected to increase from 7.4mn in 2013 to 10.4mn in 2018. As well as higher volumes of outbound travel we also expect increased levels of internal travel, providing for a very healthy travel market.

We forecast healthy increases in inbound travel, with Thailand well placed to take advantage of growth in the Asia Pacific region as a whole, particularly in key source markets such as China and India, which are experiencing exceptional economic growth. By 2018, based largely on growth in the travel from countries in the Asia Pacific region, we expect the number of inbound arrivals to reach just under 30mn.

We are forecasting investment across a range of infrastructure projects, including air and rail travel. Thailand has good air travel connectivity, both domestically and internationally, mainly via the newly redeveloped Suvarnabhumi Airport near Bangkok, and through a wide network of smaller domestic airports. The Thai rail network is relatively limited, but several large-scale projects should lead to improvements. The road network is in need of extensive modernisation and improvement, particularly in more rural areas. A great deal of travel also takes place via boat between coastal areas and outlying islands and there are some safety concerns, with several high profile accidents in recent years causing concern.

The accommodation market is well established, thanks to Thailand's long-standing position as one of the most popular tourist destinations in the Asia...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
Table: Thailand's Inbound Tourism, 2011-2018 ('000)
Table: Thailand's Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, 2011-2018 ('000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Thailand's Outbound Tourism, 2011-2018 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Thailand's Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Destinations By Departure, 2011-2018 ('000)
Table: Thailand's Receipts For Transport And Travel, 2011-2018
Table: Methods Of Travel, 2011-2018
Table: Thailand's Hotels And Restaurants Industry Value, 2011-2018
Table: Thailand's Hotel Accommodation, 2011-2018
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia - Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Security Risk Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Market Overview
Table: Key Thai Airport Infrastructure Projects
Table: Top 10 Global Hotel Groups Present in Thailand
Company Profile
Centara Plaza Hotel Public Company
Dusit Thani Hotels & Resorts
Global Industry Overview
Table: Hotel Water Consumption By Region (litres per guest per night)
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2012-2018
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth (% change y-o-y) And Exchange Rates, 2012-2015
Developed States
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2012-2015
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2012-2015
Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013 And 2014 (%)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The Thailand Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.

BMI's Thailand Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai tourism industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai tourism market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).

Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).

Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).

Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

We also have Security Risk Reward Ratings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.

Market Overview

This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc