BMI View: BMI expects growth across a range of key indicators in the Thai tourism market throughout our forecast period. Despite continuing political unrest in the capital, Bangkok, we expect an increase in the number of visitors overall, with growth concentrated in traditionally popular beach destinations such as Phuket, or mountain resorts in the north of the country, in Chiang Mai.
Several years of positive GDP growth have boosted the number of outbound travellers, with the number of outbound travellers expected to increase from 7.4mn in 2013 to 10.4mn in 2018. As well as higher volumes of outbound travel we also expect increased levels of internal travel, providing for a very healthy travel market.
We forecast healthy increases in inbound travel, with Thailand well placed to take advantage of growth in the Asia Pacific region as a whole, particularly in key source markets such as China and India, which are experiencing exceptional economic growth. By 2018, based largely on growth in the travel from countries in the Asia Pacific region, we expect the number of inbound arrivals to reach just under 30mn.
We are forecasting investment across a range of infrastructure projects, including air and rail travel. Thailand has good air travel connectivity, both domestically and internationally, mainly via the newly redeveloped Suvarnabhumi Airport near Bangkok, and through a wide network of smaller domestic airports. The Thai rail network is relatively limited, but several large-scale projects should lead to improvements. The road network is in need of extensive modernisation and improvement, particularly in more rural areas. A great deal of travel also takes place via boat between coastal areas and outlying islands and there are some safety concerns, with several high profile accidents in recent years causing concern.
The accommodation market is well established, thanks to Thailand's long-standing position as one of the most popular tourist destinations in the Asia...
The Thailand Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Thailand Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai tourism industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai tourism market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
We also have Security Risk Reward Ratings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.