Business Monitor International


Thailand Telecommunications Report

Published 04 September 2014

  • 125 pages
 
$1,295.00
Thailand Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The military coup of May 2014 has cast a long shadow over Thailand's telecoms market and uncertainty is likely to prevail in the short term as the junta has arbitrarily cancelled a number of long-awaited initiatives, including the auction of 900/1800MHz spectrum. The state telecoms agencies TOT and CAT Telecom are taking the advantage of the situation to ensure that the next phase of market development is weighted more in their favour and have asked for priority access to 4G spectrum and assurances that private sector players use their under-utilised wireline infrastructure. China Mobile 's investment in True Corporation therefore comes as a surprise from a timing perspective but not from a business perspective as True remains the sector player most suited to long term survival .

Key Data

  • Strong demand for 3G/4G services helped sustain subscription growth momentum in H114, although much of this is achieved through cannibalisation of the existing 2G market. We have made some modest changes to our five-year mobile sector forecast and expect there to be almost 103.1mn subscriptions by 2018.

  • Price competition and aggressive marketing campaigns are exerting downwards pressure on mobile ARPU. Furthermore, declining SMS volumes are threatening operator revenues and margins, as subscribers adopt IP alternatives such as WhatsApp and Viber. ARPU is forecast to reach THB183 by 2018, down from THB204 in 2013.

  • The fixed-line market is stagnating and we expect it will decline by an average of 3% a year over our five-year forecast period 2013-2018, bringing penetration down to 7.7% in 2018.

Key Trends And Developments

The key development in H114 was the military coup that saw the replacement of the elected government in May. The newly-installed junta was quick to curb usage of telecoms networks and services by potential dissenters during and after the coup and it is reluctant to cede control while it re-establishes law and order. In the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Mobile
9
Wireline SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
15
Business Environment
17
Industry Forecast
19
Mobile
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Thailand 2011-2018)
19
ARPU
21
Wireline
23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Thailand 2011-2018)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings - Q3 2014
29
Market Overview
30
Mobile
30
Regional Perspective
30
Table: Thailand Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
31
Key Developments
31
Mobile Growth
32
Market Shares
34
Table: Thai Mobile Market, Q213
34
Subscription Mix
35
Usage
36
MVNOs
38
Mobile Content
39
Mobile Operator Data
43
Table: Thailand Market Overview
43
Table: AIS
44
Table: DTAC
47
Table: True
50
Asia Pacific Mobile Content
54
Tablets Are The New TV
56
Table: Percentage Of Long-Form Video Views By Device
58
Infrastructure Is A Key Enabler
58
Wireline
60
Fixed Line
60
Broadband
62
Table: Thai Broadband Market, Q412
63
True Online
63
Pay TV
69
Industry Trends And Developments
71
Table: M2M Regulatory Readiness In APAC
75
3G Licences
75
Networks
77
Regulatory Development
83
Regulatory Environment
83
Table: Thailand's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
84
Competitive Landscape
90
Table: Key Players - Thai Telecoms Sector
90
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Results (USDmn)
90
Company Profile
91
TOT
91
True Corporation
96
Advanced Info Service (AIS)
101
DTAC
105
Regional Overview
109
Industry Trend Analysis
109
Table: Strategies Of Asian Top Chat Apps
110
Demographic Forecast
115
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
116
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
117
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
118
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
118
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Sources
122
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
124
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
125

The Thailand Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Thailand's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Thailand Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Thailand.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Thai telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Thailand's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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