Business Monitor International


Thailand Telecommunications Report

Published 13 November 2014

  • 105 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Thailand Telecommunications Report

BMI View:   Despite considerable uncertainty regarding the military-backed government's intentions regarding the auction of 900/1800MHz spectrum, sentiment towards foreign investment and plans for the long-term roles of state telecoms agencies TOT and CAT Telecom , the Thai telecoms sector has not lacked ambitious investment initiatives during the first nine months of 2014. AIS has unveiled a plan to develop a nationwide broadband network to rival those of TrueOnline and TOT, while True has committed to further expansion of its 3G/4G networks as well as its core wireline infrastructure. More recently, DTAC committed to a long-term expansion of its tri-band mobile network and True welcomed China Mobile as an investment partner .

Key Data

  • Strong demand for 3G/4G services helped sustain subscription growth momentum in 9M14, although much of this was achieved through cannibalisation of the existing 2G market. We have made some modest changes to our five-year mobile sector forecast and expect there to be 103.6mn subscriptions by 2018.

  • Price competition and aggressive marketing campaigns are exerting downwards pressure on mobile ARPU. Furthermore, declining SMS volumes are threatening operator revenues and margins, as subscribers adopt IP alternatives such as WhatsApp and Viber. ARPU is forecast to reach THB183 by 2018, down from THB204 in 2013.

  • The fixed-line market is stagnating and we expect it will decline by an average of 3% a year over our five-year forecast period 2013-2018, bringing penetration down to 7.7% in 2018.

Key Trends And Developments

The most notable development in Q314 was AIS' September 2014 announcement that it had petitioned the regulator for permission to enter the local wireline broadband market. It plans to invest THB4.6bn (USD144mn) in the project, of which THB1bn would be invested in the first year of roll-out. A timeframe for the proposed development has not been disclosed but, as the company's application...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Thailand 2011-2018)
15
ARPU
16
Wireline
18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Thailand 2011-2018)
18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
20
Table: Asia-Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Index - Q115
24
Market Overview
26
Mobile
26
Regional Perspective
26
Table: Thailand Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
27
Key Developments
27
Mobile Growth
27
Market Shares
31
Table: Thai Mobile Market, Q314
31
Subscription Mix
32
Usage
33
MVNOs
35
Mobile Content
36
Mobile Operator Data
39
Table: Thailand Mobile Market Overview
39
Table: AIS
40
Table: DTAC
44
Table: TrueMobile
46
Asia Mobile Content
49
Increased Smartphone Adoption A Key Enabler
49
Mobile Games Sector Competition Intensifies
50
Three-Year Outlook For Asian Mobile Games
51
How Mobile Operators Fit In
52
Wireline
53
Fixed-Line
53
Broadband
55
Table: Thai Broadband Market, Q214
57
True Online
57
Pay TV
61
Industry Trends And Developments
63
Regulatory Development
67
Regulatory Overview
67
Regulatory Environment
67
Table: Thailand's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
68
Competitive Landscape
71
Table: Key Players - Thai Telecoms Sector
71
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Results (USDmn)
71
Company Profile
72
TOT
72
True Corporation
77
Advanced Info Service (AIS)
82
DTAC
86
Regional Overview
90
Demographic Forecast
94
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Thailand 1990-2025)
95
Table: Key Population Ratios (Thailand 1990-2025)
95
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Thailand 1990-2025)
96
Table: Population By Age Group (Thailand 1990-2025)
96
Table: Population By Age Group % (Thailand 1990-2025)
97
Glossary
99
Table: Glossary Of Terms
99
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Sources
103
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
103
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
104
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
105

The Thailand Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Thailand's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Thailand Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Thailand.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Thai telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Thailand's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc