Business Monitor International


Thailand Petrochemicals Report

Published 24 December 2014

  • 76 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Thailand Petrochemicals Report

The Thai petrochemicals industry is seeing more certainty and growth as the political situation stabilises, but BMI's latest Thailand Petrochemicals report warns that political risk will remain a significant factor going forward.

The situation in Thailand has improved in recent months leading to improved performance in the automobile and auto parts manufacturing, agro-industrial exports and overall manufacturing. As such, the country's petrochemicals industry can look forward to a year of recovery in 2015. The crisis has limited the growth potential in Thailand's infrastructure and construction sectors, which are also major petrochemicals consumers, particularly in the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) segment, but like the automotive industry a contraction 2014 will turn to growth in 2015.

The industry should be protected from domestic economic woes with increased exports. Petrochemicals output is exported directly or is used in the export of finished goods. Also, most petrochemicals operations are located in Map Ta Phut, putting them away from the centre of political unrest in Bangkok. The chief uncertainties facing the sector relate to project approval by the new military regime and the regulatory regime.

  • The Thai petrochemicals industry is set to continue ongoing expansion plans, led by PTTGC. In 2015 it will complete the debottlenecking of its aromatics plant, realising a 100,000tpa increase in paraxylene capacity, and boosting ethylene oxide capacity by 90,000tpa. In 2016, a new furnace is planned for its biggest cracker, which has a current capacity of 1mn tpa of ethylene. Meanwhile, Siam Cement Group (SCG) is planning to boost its overall low-density polyethylene (LDPE) production capacity by 60,000tpa by 2016.

  • Political protests are likely as Thailand continues its transition, but whether this will lead to an extended period of instability remains unclear. Should social unrest reawaken, there will be fresh delays in project execution, disruption to external...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Thailand's Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Table: Macroeconomic Forecasts (Thailand 2010-2016)
21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Thailand Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Projects
32
Impact Of Military Coup
34
Investment In Vietnam
35
Investment In Indonesia
36
Investment In Nigeria
37
Company Profile
38
Siam Cement Group (SCG)
38
Table: Siam Cement Group (THBmn)
40
Indorama Ventures
41
Integrated Refinery and Petrochemicals Company (IRPC)
43
Table: IRPC Financial results (THBmn)
45
PTT Global Chemical
46
Table: PTTGC Financial Results (THBmn)
50
Regional Overview
51
Asia Overview
51
Political and regulatory risks
51
Preparing For Another Capacity Surge
53
Rapid Growth In South East Asia
55
Global Industry Overview
57
Polymers Markets
59
Polymers Capacities
60
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
61
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
61
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
62
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
63
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
63
Gasoline: Crude Supporting Price
66
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
66
Political Risk Sends Prices Soaring
66
Upward Price Revision
68
Europe And The US:
68
Singapore: Strong Upside For Q314
70
Risks To Outlook
71
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
72
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
72
Supply Keeps Market Down
72
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
74
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
75
Risks To Outlook
78
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
79
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
79
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
84
Risks To Outlook
85
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
86
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
86
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
88
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
92
Risks To Outlook
93
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Glossary
99
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
99
Methodology
100
Industry Forecast Methodology
100
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
102
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
103
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
104

The Thailand Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Thailand Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc