Business Monitor International


Thailand Petrochemicals Report

Published 24 March 2014

  • 91 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Thailand Petrochemicals Report

The Thai petrochemicals industry is now looking to add value to basic chemicals production following a surge in olefins and polymers capacities over recent years. We examine ongoing projects and assess the short-term and long-term risks as Asia struggles with over-supply and a volatile.

Thailand's petrochemicals industry has made rapid progress. The policy of free competition in the industry has led to an increase in investment, as well as production capacity. Established manufacturing groups have focused on building a completely integrated industry and expanding investment opportunities to a global scale.

In 2014, the Thai petrochemicals industry is set to continue ongoing expansion plans, led by PTTGC. The company's exposure to high oil prices has been reduced with the recent reduction of the proportion of naphtha at its 515,000tpa I-4 cracker No.1 from 95% to 50% and utilising natural gas instead. The move will reduce the proportion of naphtha in PTTGC's total feed from 15% to 6-7%, thereby boosting the overall competitiveness of Thailand's petrochemicals industry. In 2014, PTTGC will commission a new plant with 75,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of butadiene and 25,000tpa of butane.

Thailand's petrochemicals producers have been operating close to capacity in recent months, indicating that 2014 will see a robust performance for the sector, apart from a five-week scheduled turnaround at a 460,000tpa cracker at Map Ta Phut in Q114 and temporary closures of polyethylene (PE) plants at the site due to a power outage. IRPC is planning to produce more pipe grade HDPE at Map Ta Phut in 2014 by converting an 80,000tpa HDPE plant at the site from film and injection grades to make black compounded HDPE 100 pipe grade resin.

  • The over-supply situation in the Chinese market, coupled with growing Indian self-sufficiency and the ongoing eurozone crisis, will narrow the range of markets that are capable of absorbing Thai exports. As such, prices are likely to soften and margins...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
11
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Thailand's Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
22
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Thailand Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Investment In Vietnam
33
Company Profile
35
Siam Cement Group (SCG)
35
Table: Siam Cement Group (THBmn)
37
Indorama Polymers Public Company Limited (IRP PCL)
38
Integrated Refinery and Petrochemicals Company (IRPC)
40
PTT Global Chemical
43
Regional Overview
47
Asia Overview
47
Short-Term Outlook
47
Preparing For Another Capacity Surge
48
Rapid Growth In Southeast
50
Global Industry Overview
53
A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014-
53
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
55
Long-Term Growth
55
Shale: The Future Of Feedstock-
57
Threats To growth
60
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
60
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
60
Methodology
63
Crude Price Forecasts
64
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
64
Oil Product Price Forecasts
64
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
65
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
66
Weak Demand Persists
67
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
68
Quarterly Prices
72
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
72
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
73
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
75
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
81
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
83
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
83
Risks To Outlook
85
Demographic Forecast
86
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
87
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
88
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
89
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
89
Glossary
90
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
90
Methodology
91
Industry Forecast Methodology
91
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
93
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
95

The Thailand Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Thailand Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc