Business Monitor International


Thailand Petrochemicals Report

Published 17 October 2014

  • 91 pages
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$1,295.00
Thailand Petrochemicals Report

Thailand's petrochemicals outlook is clouded by the domestic political crisis and the local market slowdown, but hopes for export-oriented growth to offset slower sales back home are being diminished by slow Chinese growth, warns BMI's latest Thailand Petrochemicals Report.

We cautioned in previous quarterly reports that a prolonged stalemate of the country's precarious political situation would result in enduring weakness in the market and exert a downside risk to the petrochemicals industry. True enough, the volatile situation suggests no meaningful compromise to the ongoing political turmoil and our Country Risk team does not expect the situation to improve significantly over the remainder of the year, which will also result in a weaker growth outlook.

  • Demand for engineering plastics, polyurethanes and rubber will be undermined by a decline of 10.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in automotive production. However, we have highlighted for some time that domestic production will hold up better than sales as local carmakers increase exports to overseas markets to make up some of the shortfall from the collapse in domestic sales. We see carmakers, which are successfully able to re-orientate more of their domestic production towards export markets, as the most able to ride out the current storm.

  • The crisis will limit the growth potential in Thailand's infrastructure and construction sectors, which are also major petrochemicals consumers, particularly in the PVC segment. We are now forecasting the construction sector to contract in real terms by 3.8% in 2014, compared to our previous forecast of 1.9% growth.

  • Fresh investment by Thai petrochemicals companies is heading to Vietnam, Indonesia and Nigeria, where producers seek to exploit the local feedstock potential and surging local demand, in contrast to the peaking Thai petrochemicals industry.

  • In  BMI's Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Thailand scores 68.2 points, down 0.5 points since the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
16
Table: Thailand's Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
18
Macroeconomic Forecasts
19
Economic Analysis
19
Table: Thailand - Economic Activity
22
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Thailand Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Impact Of Military Coup
32
Projects
33
Investment In Vietnam
36
Company Profile
38
Siam Cement Group (SCG)
38
Table: Siam Cement Group (THBmn)
40
Indorama Polymers Public Company Limited (IRP PCL)
41
Integrated Refinery and Petrochemicals Company (IRPC)
43
Table: IRPC Financial results (THBmn)
45
PTT Global Chemical
46
Table: PTTGC Financial Results (THBmn)
49
Regional Overview
50
Asia Overview
50
Short-Term Outlook
50
Preparing For Another Capacity Surge
52
Rapid Growth In South East Asia
53
Global Industry Overview
55
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
58
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
59
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
60
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
61
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
61
Gasoline
63
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
63
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
64
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
65
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
68
Risks To Outlook
71
Diesel
71
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
72
New York's One-Off Heat Up
72
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
75
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
79
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
81
Risks To Outlook
85
Jet Fuel
86
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
86
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
86
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
88
Risks To Outlook
91
Bunker Fuel
92
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
92
The Storm Clears For Shipping
93
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
95
Long-Term Threats Linger
96
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
98
Risks To Outlook
99
Demographic Forecast
100
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
101
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
102
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
103
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
103
Glossary
104
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
104
Methodology
105
Industry Forecast Methodology
105
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
107
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
108
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
109

The Thailand Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Thailand Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc