The military coup could have a mixed effect on Thai producers, with external markets still performing relatively well but domestic markets expected to be hit badly by an economic downturn and the business environment clouded by uncertainty, according to BMI's latest Thailand Petrochemicals Report.
Most petrochemicals output is exported directly or is used in the export of finished goods. Political unrest, which is focused on Bangkok, has also not affected the operation of petrochemical plants, most of which are located in Map Ta Phut. Moreover, demonstrators have not shown any intention of disrupting the operations of manufacturers. The chief uncertainties facing the sector relate to project approval by the new military regime and the regulatory regime.
Nevertheless, the ongoing political turmoil will have a deleterious impact on domestic petrochemicals consumption. With real GDP growth contracting by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q114, it is difficult to see a quick recovery. The manufacturing and construction sectors are coming under pressure, while outperformance on the external front looks like it's here to stay, although exports to China could come under pressure due to the country's economic slowdown. While we have not yet witnessed evidence of firms withdrawing their investments from Thailand, petrochemicals producers will be wary of increasing their commitments to the Thai industry at present, until there is greater stability in the country's business environment. PTT, Thailand's biggest petrochemicals, oil and gas producer, said in April 2014 that it planned to cut its investment budget, for a second straight year, by as much as 30% to THB60bn (USD1.85bn) in 2014 due to the political crisis. It is unclear to what extent this will impact on current projects.
We forecast auto production to decline 2.9% in 2014, to 2.39mn units, which will depress polypropylene and synthetic rubber consumption. However, we believe that the country's vehicle exports...
The Thailand Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Thailand Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai petrochemicals industry.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
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Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
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