Business Monitor International


Thailand Petrochemicals Report

Published 17 October 2014

  • 91 pages
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$1,295.00
Thailand Petrochemicals Report

Thailand's petrochemicals outlook is clouded by the domestic political crisis and the local market slowdown, but hopes for export-oriented growth to offset slower sales back home are being diminished by slow Chinese growth, warns BMI's latest Thailand Petrochemicals Report.

We cautioned in previous quarterly reports that a prolonged stalemate of the country's precarious political situation would result in enduring weakness in the market and exert a downside risk to the petrochemicals industry. True enough, the volatile situation suggests no meaningful compromise to the ongoing political turmoil and our Country Risk team does not expect the situation to improve significantly over the remainder of the year, which will also result in a weaker growth outlook.

  • Demand for engineering plastics, polyurethanes and rubber will be undermined by a decline of 10.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in automotive production. However, we have highlighted for some time that domestic production will hold up better than sales as local carmakers increase exports to overseas markets to make up some of the shortfall from the collapse in domestic sales. We see carmakers, which are successfully able to re-orientate more of their domestic production towards export markets, as the most able to ride out the current storm.

  • The crisis will limit the growth potential in Thailand's infrastructure and construction sectors, which are also major petrochemicals consumers, particularly in the PVC segment. We are now forecasting the construction sector to contract in real terms by 3.8% in 2014, compared to our previous forecast of 1.9% growth.

  • Fresh investment by Thai petrochemicals companies is heading to Vietnam, Indonesia and Nigeria, where producers seek to exploit the local feedstock potential and surging local demand, in contrast to the peaking Thai petrochemicals industry.

  • In  BMI's Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Thailand scores 68.2 points, down 0.5 points since the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Thailand's Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Table: Macroeconomic Forecasts (Thailand 2010-2016)
21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Thailand Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Projects
32
Impact Of Military Coup
34
Investment In Vietnam
35
Investment In Indonesia
36
Investment In Nigeria
37
Company Profile
38
Siam Cement Group (SCG)
38
Table: Siam Cement Group (THBmn)
40
Indorama Ventures
41
Integrated Refinery and Petrochemicals Company (IRPC)
43
Table: IRPC Financial results (THBmn)
45
PTT Global Chemical
46
Table: PTTGC Financial Results (THBmn)
50
Regional Overview
51
Asia Overview
51
Political and regulatory risks
51
Preparing For Another Capacity Surge
53
Rapid Growth In South East Asia
55
Global Industry Overview
57
Polymers Markets
59
Polymers Capacities
60
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
61
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
61
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
62
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
63
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
63
Gasoline: Crude Supporting Price
66
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
66
Political Risk Sends Prices Soaring
66
Upward Price Revision
68
Europe And The US:
68
Singapore: Strong Upside For Q314
70
Risks To Outlook
71
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
72
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
72
Supply Keeps Market Down
72
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
74
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
75
Risks To Outlook
78
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
79
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
79
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
84
Risks To Outlook
85
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
86
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
86
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
88
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
92
Risks To Outlook
93
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98
Glossary
99
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
99
Methodology
100
Industry Forecast Methodology
100
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
102
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
103
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
104

The Thailand Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Thailand Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc